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“Elections under siege”: Why Trump insists China “rigged” the 2020 election and how much evidence supports claims of illegal migrants on voter rolls

Many analysts believe the U.S. president is trying to shape the political narrative ahead of the November midterm elections and the 2028 presidential race, though some argue the strategy could ultimately backfire

Newsroom July 17 09:44

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In a 25-minute address from the White House early Friday, Donald Trump revived his longstanding claims that the 2020 presidential election, which he lost to Joe Biden, was fraudulent. He argued that the U.S. electoral system remains vulnerable to foreign interference and improper voter registrations.

According to Axios, Trump also sought to rally support for the SAVE America Act, legislation that would require proof of U.S. citizenship before an individual can register to vote.

Citing what he described as recently released “raw” intelligence, Trump claimed that China carried out “the largest election data breach in history” during the 2020 election. According to his account, Beijing gained access to the records of 220 million American voters and created “ballots for Biden.”

However, election officials and many analysts note that voter registration records—including names and addresses—are publicly available in nearly every U.S. state, and in many cases are published online to promote transparency. Possessing such information, they argue, is not in itself evidence of election interference or vote manipulation.

Trump also accused the U.S. intelligence community—the so-called “Deep State”—of withholding documents related to alleged Chinese activities during his first presidential term. Yet many of the documents released by the White House during the speech present a far more restrained assessment of China’s role than the one described by Trump. Intelligence experts also point out that raw intelligence differs significantly from assessed and verified intelligence reports.

By blaming the intelligence agencies of the time, Trump also effectively absolves his own administration—including current CIA Director John Ratcliffe, who served as Director of National Intelligence (DNI) in 2020—of responsibility for detecting what Trump now describes as a major national security threat.

His claims also conflict with the official Intelligence Community Assessment, which concluded that there was no evidence of foreign interference that altered any technical aspect of the 2020 presidential election, including voter registration, voting systems, vote counting, or the reporting of results.

Claims about illegal migrants on voter rolls

Trump also claimed that approximately 278,000 undocumented immigrants are registered to vote in several key swing states and said an ongoing Department of Homeland Security investigation would show that the nationwide figure is significantly higher.

However, he presented no evidence that any of those individuals actually cast ballots.

Immigrant advocacy organizations have long argued that registering to vote would be one of the last actions an undocumented immigrant would take, as doing so would voluntarily expose their presence to government authorities. Moreover, no independent investigation has concluded that widespread voting by undocumented immigrants occurred in the 2020 election or in subsequent elections.

Trump also warned of “shocking vulnerabilities” in U.S. election systems, describing cyber threats as a growing risk to election infrastructure. However, he stopped short of claiming that any cyberattacks had actually manipulated votes or changed election outcomes.

Analysts note that his concerns contrast with actions taken by his own administration, which has significantly reduced funding and staffing for the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA), the federal agency that helps states and local governments protect election systems.

His administration has also substantially reduced the role of the bipartisan Election Assistance Commission, which provides technical guidance on election administration.

Looking ahead to the midterms and 2028

Trump called on state and local officials to work with the federal government to remove ineligible individuals from voter rolls.

While he framed the proposal as a measure to safeguard election integrity, Democrats and many critics argue that it reflects an effort to purge voter rolls in ways that could politically benefit Republicans.

Not all Republicans, however, support Trump’s decision to continually revisit the issue of election fraud.

According to the analysis, some members of Trump’s political team believe the rhetoric energizes his base ahead of the November elections. Others—including senior Republican figures and party pollsters—argue that independent and undecided voters are tired of hearing the same claims.

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“It’s a foolish, really foolish move,” one Republican pollster involved in multiple election campaigns said after studying voter reactions to the “stolen election” narrative.

According to the pollster, focus groups were shown previous clips of Trump discussing the issue, and even undecided voters who believed there had been problems with the election responded negatively.

“Even swing voters who think something may have gone wrong in the election, when they hear Trump talking about it, they just… roll their eyes,” the pollster said.

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