Hello, of course no war conflict—especially one that involves the entire Middle East region and dozens of countries indirectly or directly—ends in one or two weeks, as several actors and international media initially believed. Almost everyone has now revised the scenario of a fast-track intervention; concerns are increasing and markets have begun to consider the best scenario—for everyone—to be for Trump to declare himself the winner in 2–4 weeks from now and then leave or stop the attacks. In other words, to be satisfied with the massive damage already inflicted on the regime, to kill as many as possible within the hierarchy of the mullahs, and of course, if possible, somehow “take” (through a ground operation) the uranium they possess for nuclear purposes. Israel, of course, does not agree with anything less than the total disappearance of the theocratic regime, but of course that is not easy. To put it another way, the Americans are not going to Iran for a new Iraq.

Tourism – Greece

Today travel.gr is holding an extremely interesting conference, given the circumstances, in Heraklion, Crete. The event is Greece Talks with the theme “Tourism, development, a new opportunity.” Invited speakers who will exchange views about the crisis and its effects include, among others, Pierrakakis, Hatzidakis, Dimas, bankers, representatives of major construction and other companies, and of course hoteliers from the island. The idea that we are not worried about the war… does not exist. That we all hope it will end and that Greece will emerge as a winner as a market—as the safest destination in the wider region—is our wish. Pierrakakis, however, is visiting Heraklion to speak for the second time within a short period; the previous time was on Tsiknopempti with an audience of more than 1,000 people and an agenda focused on the economy and Greek-Turkish relations. Today as well, in this turbulent context of the Middle East flare-up, it will be interesting.

The cancelled reshuffle and the…non-elections

Much has been said about scenarios in which K.M. might carry out one final cabinet reshuffle before the 2027 elections. Yesterday he publicly ruled it out (iefimerida), but privately as well he tells interlocutors that after seven years it is not easy to reshuffle the deck and fundamentally change things when there is no real need. Besides, as I say, a reshuffle satisfies some who get an opportunity but also displeases others who, before the elections, find themselves fighting the battle without a ministerial seat. As for the elections, I have been writing for three days now that Mitsotakis is not the type who would gamble with a national issue, but he is also clever enough to “take” what he needs from the situation.

Mitsotakis – Dendias

An interesting point from K.M.’s interview yesterday that I noted was his reference to Dendias’s recommendation to mobilize the Armed Forces in the case of Cyprus, which of course was immediately accepted and the decision of the Government Council for Foreign Affairs and Defence (KYSEA) was taken by circulation. Despite what some people write, the relationship between Mitsotakis and Dendias has always been direct, without intermediaries, and currently in a good phase. It would be illogical, after all, in a period of major national and geopolitical crisis, for there not to be a line of communication between the Prime Minister’s office and the Pentagon (Ministry of Defence). It was certainly no coincidence that on the day the Cyprus trilateral meeting with Macron took place, Dendias was also included in the plan, as he welcomed the French president at the Souda base.

The Bulgarians’ procurement

Staying with Dendias and the Ministry of Defence: yesterday’s visit to Sofia, Bulgaria, also means money for the Greek innovation ecosystem, because after Cyprus, Bulgaria is also interested in buying Greek KENTAVROS anti-drone systems, in fact 150 of them. The Cypriots want four, while the system is already deployed on the frigates PSARA and HYDRA, which operate in Cyprus and in the Red Sea. The Bulgarians also have approved funding from the SAFE program, meaning that the desire existed even before the war, but now the need has become even more timely.

A sadness…

One could say many things about Samaras’s speech yesterday afternoon in Parliament, both about its content and its tone. However, there are moments when saying nothing is enough, because the matter speaks for itself. What has some symbolic value is that he was answered by a former close associate of his, Stavros Papastavrou, who essentially told him that he was doing himself an injustice with what he said. Just sadness…

…Sanchez deleted Odysseas

Just when you think there is nothing more in PASOK, reality proves you wrong. Our Nikos, the leader, has apparently found the reason why the party’s polling needle is stuck: Odysseas Konstantinopoulos. And a day and a half after giving the interview where he said obvious truths, President Nikos decided to expel him, citing the… criticism he made of Pedro Sanchez! The pretext is obvious. The truth is that Androulakis sent two messages: first, that whoever speaks will be expelled. Second, that even with reduced percentages he will keep the party. The PASOK president expelled his once closest associate because they know each other well—and he knows that he would not stop speaking. He had been thinking about it for some time, but the MP was constantly pressuring him in ways that made it hard to “act.” Now, a few days before the party congress, he decided to do it in order to send messages to the aspiring successors.

From chaotic expansion to expulsions

“Well, you bring in Pelegrinis and Bolaris and you expel Odysseas, who hasn’t missed a single day from PASOK even in the toughest years?” a very well-known green (PASOK) figure told me, shocked by the development. What will the top figures do now? Diamantopoulou will not speak—after all she did not even react to the expulsion of Kostas Simitis. Doukas, who also criticizes Androulakis, is weighing things carefully because he knows that if he speaks he will be the next to be expelled. He is looking for the right moment to react: immediately before the congress or during it. The same applies to Pavlos Geroulanos, who is expected to make a statement in the coming days.

The successors to Odysseas

Now the issue remains of the position of Vice-President of Parliament, which was held by Odysseas Konstantinopoulos. He automatically loses it since it belongs to PASOK. Today—most likely—we will learn his replacement, as the party will propose its candidate and logically next week the vote will take place in the plenary session of Parliament. Among the names mentioned as most likely is Milena Apostolaki, but also Paris Koukoulopoulos and Giannis Tsimaris.

Subsidies – EKOME

I have the impression that the subsidies that television channels will receive this year for content production were discussed yesterday even by K.M. himself with the head of EKOME, Christopoulos. Our TV channels receive about €25 million a year from this arrangement and are asking for another €20 million for so-called hybrid programs. Not bad, right? Those channels that receive money for fiction series say they promote quality, while those that do not produce such series are asking for subsidies for their entertainment programming. These amounts, as you can see, are not small change—even though the people who own the channels are certainly not poor (half the country’s GDP, practically). Incidentally, let me remind you that we are in a straight electoral period.

Banks between hammer and anvil

London and Frankfurt will become next week the two poles around which much will be decided for the systemic banks. The Morgan Stanley investment conference (17–19 March) and the ECB meeting (18–19 March) coincide at one of the most difficult moments for the European financial system. We saw and heard the banks’ credentials and the London analysts certainly read them. Non-performing loans fell to 2.7% and return on equity rose to 15.5%. The CET1 capital ratio reached 16%, as Moody’s officially confirmed. But the environment has changed. The escalation in the Persian Gulf is increasing energy costs and reigniting inflationary fires we thought were extinguished. London analysts have prepared “tough questions” about the exposure of systemic banks to shipping loans, which amount to €18 billion for 2025. Meanwhile in Frankfurt, central bankers face dilemmas. Under normal conditions, the next move would have been a 25-basis-point cut in euro interest rates to 1.75%. Today they are discussing the possibility of raising them to 2.25% instead.

Aegean waiting – and Volotea in the background

The word “uncertainty” was used several times by Eftychis Vassilakis while speaking to analysts in yesterday’s Aegean conference call, which is expected since there is still no clear picture about the course of the war in Iran. The airline’s chief stressed that Aegean has faced difficult periods in the past and managed to cope, which it intends to do again now. He emphasized that whatever happens in the short term, Aegean’s development and competitiveness must not be affected, which is why the company will remain conservative and flexible. For the moment there has been a decline of about 8–10% in booking flows since the start of the crisis compared with previous weeks—similar to the period when Russia invaded Ukraine—while he stressed that it is still too early for forecasts and guidance. However, the call also produced news: Aegean is in “active discussions” and preparing to increase its stake in the Spanish low-cost airline Volotea above the 20% it currently holds, through a new round of capital raising.

With tea and organic drinks, the comeback of Manos Doma­zakis

Can the “Thamma” of Greek nature work a miracle for a major comeback of Manos Doma­zakis in business affairs? Through the company that his children have been running in recent years, which specializes in organic tea and other beverages made from herbs of Crete, the former owner of Creta Farm appears to be doing everything he can to return to the market himself—seven years after the family feud with his brother Takis led the cold-cuts company into the hands of Dimitris Vintzilaios. The bet he is placing with “Thamma” was evident a few days ago at the HORECA exhibition, where M. Doma­zakis was present at the “Thamma” booth.

The extremely wealthy Spaniard investing in Greece

A company that was established yesterday, Thursday, March 12, could not possibly go unnoticed by this column’s “radar.” And not because it belongs to someone well known in domestic circles, but because of the… amount involved. To explain: its initial share capital is €16 million, a figure rarely seen in new companies. The company, founded in the form of a Private Company (I.K.E.), is called “Karia Single-Member I.K.E.” and is based in the municipality of Kifisia, specifically in Nea Erythraia. The capital of €16,000,000 is divided into 160,000 company shares of capital contributions, each with a nominal value of €100, and it was fully paid up at the time of the company’s establishment. Its purpose is holding company services only. The (very…) large amount of money was invested by Daniela Andress Esser, who is said to be a member of the wealthy Spanish Andress Llinás family. To be precise, the Andress Llinás family is not merely wealthy but among the richest families in Spain, with fortunes linked to investment funds and stakes in large businesses. Their business activities are not limited to Spain but extend to other European countries. Apparently, they have seen something important in Greece as well.

Angola, Senegal, and something even closer for Energean

The move into West Africa had long been on the radar of Energean’s management, and it has now acted, seeing significant prospects there—either in fields managed by operators that lack access to financing to move quickly toward development, or by majors for whom these specific fields do not add significant scale to their portfolios. One such case is the offshore Blocks 14 and 14K in Angola, where the company announced it is acquiring Chevron’s stakes, a company that recently has also “discovered” Greece. In the first of the two blocks, Energean will serve as the operator, while the total production being added is around 13,000 barrels of oil per day. For proven reserves of around 28 million barrels of oil, the price is $260 million, but it could double if the full development of another area proceeds—currently producing from only one well. Mathios Rigas, CEO of Energean, recently told Upstream that the company is interested in natural gas fields in the offshore area between Mauritania and Senegal, estimating that such development could support the construction of a pipeline connecting the two countries with Morocco, supplying Europe via Spain. It is clear that Energean—now that developments in Israel have progressed and production from the Katlan field is expected next year—is moving to renew and expand its reserves, and West Africa offers such opportunities. It is also rumored that the company is probing another important opportunity, not so far from our neighborhood.

The Angelopoulos brothers and the…business chess of the Greeks

For anyone who has followed the shipping market for years, the conclusion is simple: Greek shipowners continue investing with their own style, which in practice proves almost flawless. They buy when they see value, sell when they judge the cycle has matured, and at the same time invest in the next generation of ships. The activity of recent days was not accidental. Greek investors appear to be taking advantage of current valuations. No matter how markets change, the old but always effective Greek shipping formula remains. In this context, Arcadia Shipmanagement, owned by Panagiotis and Giorgos Angelopoulos, ordered two 158,000-dwt Suezmax tankers from Hyundai Samho HI shipyards in South Korea, at about $89 million each, with delivery in 2029. The ships will be equipped with scrubbers and will be ready for ammonia or LNG fuel in the future. Performance Shipping, owned by Aliki Paliou, also ordered two Suezmax 158,000-dwt tankers from Shanghai Waigaoqiao shipyards in China, at $81.5 million each, with deliveries in 2028–2029. Capital Ship Management converted shipyard slots originally intended for container ships into four new Suezmax tankers of about 157,000 dwt at Hyundai Samho HI, with delivery in 2028.

China, Tsakos, West Africa, and Venezuela

The energy shipping market is not just about oil prices—it is about strategic movement in a world full of geopolitical risks. One shipowner who appears to handle this flow of opportunities better than many is Nikos Tsakos, CEO of Tsakos Energy Navigation. The recent rerouting of one of TEN’s Suezmax tankers from the Persian Gulf to West Africa for loading, with China as the final destination, is a characteristic example. The disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, where about 250 million barrels of oil remain trapped, is creating new routes for global oil flows. Tsakos does not see only a blockage but an opportunity for more ton-miles, higher freight rates, and increased demand for safe and reliable transportation. At the same time, Tsakos Energy Navigation was among the first companies to exploit the reopening of legal exports from Venezuela. The ability to legally load barrels from the Latin American country offered an advantage in a market searching for stable and reliable suppliers, while also diversifying geographical flows and reducing the risk of concentration in high-tension regions. In short, Tsakos shows how energy shipping can become a strategic hedge against geopolitical risks, identifying opportunities that translate into record financial results.

Andreas Martinos Jr. and the… “blue-chip” Minerva Marine

If Wall Street investors followed the unlisted part of Greek-owned shipping, Minerva Marine would be the “blue chip” of the past week. Pantanassa, the 317,100-dwt VLCC built in 2011, is causing a sensation in the spot market, with a freight rate of $555,000 per day for 45 days—a payday of $25 million, enough to make even the most composed Greek shipowner smile. Minerva Marine operates like a hedge fund, with strategy, boldness, and timing. It breaks records but also knows that uncertainty is the invisible anchor. While VLCC spot prices are soaring, bunker fuel prices jumped 49% in a single day, reminding everyone that even champions in the VLCC game do not operate in a “free lunch” market.

Panagiotidis’s spin-off company

The move by Petros Panagiotidis to create the spin-off company AI Okto Corp, which will be listed on Nasdaq in New York, reflects a strategy of clear separation of activities and value optimization for shareholders. By removing the MR1 tanker from the listed Robin Energy and creating a new company focused specifically on MR tankers, he ensures that each entity can focus on its own markets and operational strategies. Robin will continue trading with its two LPG carriers. The structure of the transaction—where Robin shareholders receive one share of AI Okto for every 6.5 shares they hold—shows an effort to maintain balance between the two companies and avoid negative investor reaction. At the same time, the continuation of the same management with Panagiotidis at the helm provides continuity and investor confidence without altering the strategic direction. The emphasis on using AI technologies to optimize AI Okto’s operations indicates recognition of the need for innovation in fleet management and operational cost reduction, which could provide a competitive advantage. On the other hand, Robin Energy, with its two LPG carriers under long-term charters, secures stable cash flow and revenue, reducing investment risk.

The lignite yard becomes a data center

Starting today, the first €5 million bond issued by PPC (DEI) and aimed exclusively at residents of Kozani and Florina becomes available. It offers 8% annually with a 5-year maturity, meaning a total return of 40% before taxes. It is an opportunity for locals to invest in the transformation of their own region. The symbolic weight of the move is much larger than its size. Behind the bond lies a €5.75 billion investment plan that literally changes the map of Western Macedonia. The building where lignite once entered the Agios Dimitrios power plant is being prepared to become a 300-MW Mega Data Center, with a €2.3 billion budget, which could be completed within two years after an agreement with a hyperscaler. PPC is already negotiating. If a commitment is secured for the full 1,000 MW, the investment could reach €7.7 billion, making it one of the largest data centers in Europe. At the same time, 2,130 MW of solar projects are being implemented (“Phoebe” 550 MW, “Amyntaio” 940 MW, “Helios Arrow” 200 MW and dozens of smaller ones), already covering—or soon to cover—the needs of more than 700,000 households. Old mines are being converted into 560-MW pumped-storage lakes. Ptolemaida 5 is abandoning lignite and converting to natural gas, ready for hydrogen. In Amyntaio, the group cooperates with Motor Oil for the first industrial-scale green hydrogen unit in Greece. All this means jobs: 10,000 during construction and 1,200 permanent positions, with the number multiplying if one includes the AI and software ecosystem that follows a data center.

Something going on with Karelia?

It may have very limited free float, but if it leaves the stock exchange it would be a major loss. The Karelia Group has existed in Greece since 1888 and has built a business footprint few Greek companies can claim. Triple-digit net profitability, €745 million in net cash—something even a bank might envy—exports to more than 65 countries, with 0.32% of global tobacco consumption, and management fully aware of the contribution of its employees, whom it rewards consistently and generously. The share today is worth €376 and the market capitalization exceeds €1 billion. The problem lies only in the free float, which remains below the 15% threshold required by the new Athens Exchange regulation. In July, the exchange management warned. In September, the company appointed two market makers—Eurobank Equities and Piraeus Securities—signaling that the two opposing shareholder sides had found a way to coexist. The result did not meet expectations. On January 9, 2026, the exchange moved the stock to a ±10% daily fluctuation category, confirming the issue remains unresolved. Last Monday there was sudden activity in the stock: 1,064 shares traded. A few days earlier, 1,733 shares changed hands on March 3 and 1,530 on March 4. These are not huge numbers, but for a stock that normally trades 50–100 shares per session, transactions above 1,000 shares attract attention and create the impression they involve major shareholders. The free float did not widen. Some are smelling a delisting, though such a decision must still be approved by a deeply divided shareholders’ assembly.

The war will end, but inflation will remain

The price of Brent oil exceeded $98.7 per barrel, more than $27 higher than a year ago. Analysts show models suggesting that if prices stay at these levels for a quarter, U.S. inflation could jump to 3.2%. For the Eurozone, the scenario is equally bleak but more complex. The energy shock threatens to reverse the disinflation process that had been underway. Early estimates show that if oil prices remain above $100 throughout 2026, Eurozone growth could fall by 0.1–0.3 percentage points, while inflation would rise further. The ECB Governing Council meets on March 17–18, and markets have begun pricing 40 basis points of rate hikes. More cautious voices—central bankers from France, Spain, Latvia, and the Netherlands—argue that temporary energy pressures should not automatically trigger monetary tightening. Christine Lagarde does not want to repeat the mistake of 2022. If the shock proves temporary, an overly rapid reaction would harm already fragile European growth. But if the new wave of price increases proves structural, inaction will revive the fears of 2022. This time, the ECB must not lose the bet.

The dream of a major Wall Street short squeeze

More and more Wall Street brokers are whispering analyses and expectations about a large-scale short squeeze in U.S. markets. Goldman Sachs data from its prime brokerage book supports the argument. Hedge fund exposure in short positions in U.S. investment products such as index futures and ETFs is at the highest level since September 2022. According to Goldman Sachs, this over-exposure to bearish contracts creates conditions for a sudden upward market surge. Paradoxically, the same funds hedging risk with index shorts also maintain large long positions in stocks. In the week ending March 6, hedge funds increased their short positions in equity ETFs by 8.3%. This accumulated cynicism is exactly the material from which short squeezes are made. The market hopes for a positive trigger—a ceasefire in the Middle East, a suspension of Trump tariffs, or a favorable Fed decision—that would force short sellers to close their positions by buying, fueling a new rally.

Mortgage holders in Britain are suffering

Bloomberg published an interesting chart showing the path of sterling interest rates. On February 27, 10-year UK gilts were at 4.233%, the lowest level since late 2024. Four days later, the world had changed violently. On March 9, 2-year gilts jumped 37 basis points in a single session, the largest daily rise since September 2022, during the turmoil triggered by Liz Truss’s “mini-budget.” The yield peaked that week at 4.787% on March 9. The 10-year gilt yield rose about 40 basis points in one week to 4.74%, the largest weekly increase among developed economies. Deutsche Bank warns UK inflation could reach 4% by the end of 2026, double the Bank of England’s target. In this environment, those with mortgages in pounds are not having their best days. The probability of a March rate cut from the BoE collapsed from 75% to 15%. Banks such as Nationwide, Virgin Money, and NatWest have already raised mortgage rates, hitting variable-rate borrowers first.

The Pentagon recruited Wall Street

Yesterday the U.S. Pentagon announced it is forming a team of 30 investment bankers from Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan, and Bank of America, tasked with channeling $200 billion into defense investments over the next three years. The central goal is to counter China’s rise. The new structure is called the Economic Defense Unit (EDU) and will operate as a temporary program lasting two to three years. The executive search firm Heidrick & Struggles is handling recruitment, offering candidates something few bankers experience: the opportunity to manage more capital than in any previous investment project. Behind the initiative stands Stephen Feinberg, billionaire co-founder of Cerberus and U.S. Deputy Secretary of Defense. Feinberg is reshaping Pentagon operations and pressuring major defense contractors whom he believes have become complacent with their workload. But the Trump administration wants more and has assigned the Pentagon oversight of investments in private companies. The Pentagon accuses the “liberals” of the 1990s of opening the door to China through outsourcing and leaving the U.S. exposed to shortages of critical national-security goods. America needs not only a strong military but also a dynamic industrial-economic arsenal. To build it, it is recruiting from the environment where real power exists—Wall Street.

Rules for “death bets”

Senator Adam Schiff of California introduced the DEATH BETS Act, a bill explicitly banning betting on prediction markets involving terrorism, war, assassinations, and individual deaths. The name stands for “Discouraging Exploitative Assassination, Tragedy, and Harm Betting in Event Trading Systems Act.” It aims to set limits on a new multibillion-dollar industry. Prediction markets are based on a simple idea: instead of asking an analyst what they think, thousands of participants “vote” with money. The price of a contract reflects the probability the market assigns to an event. If the contract “Will Trump win the election?” trades at 65 cents, the market implies 65% probability. Polymarket, founded in 2020 by Shayne Coplan, runs on the Polygon blockchain, accepts cryptocurrencies, and technically operates outside U.S. jurisdiction. Americans are officially banned but still participate. Kalshi is the legal counterpart to Polymarket. Approved by the CFTC in 2021, it operates as a regulated derivatives exchange and accepts U.S. dollars. The “wisdom of crowds” industry rests on the theory that markets forecast better than experts. In the 2024 elections, they were right. But things have now gone too far. Kalshi had opened a bet on whether Ali Khamenei would leave power, with $54 million in trading before it was suspended. Other bets included whether the Artemis II rocket would explode, whether Maduro would be removed, and which cities Putin would capture. Mike Selig, chairman of the CFTC, announced that the rules governing prediction markets will be rewritten. Meanwhile, the DEATH BETS Act aims to turn the ban from discretionary into absolute.