Hello, yesterday dawned well for the major issue occupying everyone with the developments in Gulf War No2, hopefully it ends for good and we disengage, although these things usually don’t happen automatically, they take a bit of time. Of course, in Athens, apart from the heavy rains, we had the largely expected storm of OPEKEPE No2. The government was expecting it from elsewhere—namely the wiretaps—and it came from another direction, although I repeat that OPEKEPE No2 was due to blow up since last September and we reached Easter.

What we expect…
-These are lawful surveillances via EYP, like the first ones that broke last summer, where about 15 MPs of the ruling party in 2021 were calling the then head of OPEKEPE, a certain Melas, and asking him for favors. Don’t imagine anything outrageous, agricultural subsidies via OPEKEPE of around 10–15 thousand euros to serve their clientele in their electoral districts. The composition of the MPs’ names is telling, all from regions with farming voters, and most of them politicians of the old school, old-right in their majority.
Names
-By tomorrow at the latest their names and the dialogues will officially come out from Parliament (and that’s when the communication circus will begin), my source told me that one former minister and one former deputy minister are heading for felony charges and the rest for misdemeanors. All together for lifting of immunity. Let me remind you here that since 2019 around 90 MPs from all parties have undergone the immunity-lifting process, of whom 20 are from New Democracy. The same source says that the automatic immunity-lifting process was established during this government’s term. The names have indeed been published, but the charges and details of the case file have not been made known. Not all cases are the same and I stress that it would be unfair to accuse everyone wholesale just because they are mentioned in the file.

What Mitsotakis will do
-I asked what the Maximos Mansion will do, and in particular its boss, namely K.M., and how he will handle it politically. Well, my main source told me yesterday that “the president will wait for the case file to go to Parliament and will study it himself because he wants to have a view on each case, since he is personally connected with all these politicians and in no way wants anyone to be treated unjustly. He has already taken on the OPEKEPE case from day one—not just now—and is handling it personally in order to establish a completely tamper-proof system for granting agricultural subsidies to those entitled to them. Already at OPEKEPE everything has changed and the AADE system is now incorruptible. Mitsotakis will not make any concessions in this case either—as he didn’t in the first case file.” Another source from Maximos told me that the issue is not whether the European Public Prosecutor’s charges are felonies or misdemeanors, but whether intent arises from the recorded conversations. That is, whether a given MP or minister knew that he was asking for a “legal” favor—i.e. speeding up the process for granting a subsidy—or whether the politician knew the favor was illegal and still asked for it. Let’s clarify again, the source continued, that “we are not talking about a financial transaction for the MP to make money, but about facilitating a voter-client.”

Reshuffle?
-The names include a minister, a deputy minister and a minister’s aide who asks for a favor. If K.M. follows the OPEKEPE 1 recipe, he will cut them all off, so we have a small reshuffle that could grow along the way. There is also in the file a former minister and a former deputy minister, for whom we will probably go to a preliminary investigation.

Strokes and phone calls
-I now move to the part concerning the people involved in the case who since yesterday started a whole chain of phone calls to understand where their involvement lies. I’m told that some had information for days that their name had been included in the newer file of the European Public Prosecutor and are tearing their clothes apart saying they have done nothing improper. Others did not expect it at all and a source mentioned to me one case where “he fainted when he heard it.” Elections are not far off and many fear they will go to the polls with a stigma, while for some cases that may be more serious there could even be the issue of being removed from the ballot. All this, however, once Mitsotakis reads the contentious dialogues. Also let me tell you that some MPs even went in person to Maximos to understand what dawns on them, without however becoming much wiser.

The New Democracy party
-The case also affects the ND party, which is heading toward its congress (May 15). From the congress, let me remind you, a new Political Committee also emerges which elects a new secretary, as Skrekas’s term formally expires. Therefore, a new secretary is being sought.

Karystianou
-Yesterday, as the Tempi trial resumed and it would have been the birthday of her child lost in Tempi, Karystianou decided to announce her party. Comments are yours!

Why Fourlis missed the guidance
-Just last September, Fourlis management was reiterating its targets, giving guidance for sales above €600 million and adjusted EBITDA of €38 million. In the end, the group announced sales of €593.7 million and adjusted EBITDA of €36.1 million, while in 2024 it was €31.7 million. In yesterday’s conference call for the 2025 results, no analyst bothered to ask what caused the miss, and it took a final question for management to explain the reasons. As CEO Giannis Vasilakos said, “if you had asked me three months before year-end, to be honest, I expected we would be above €600 million, and that was the initial estimate, around €615 or €610–615, which would have been enough to bring the 38 at the level of adjusted EBITDA.” He also said that the end of the year was weaker, especially in the home equipment market, and not only in Greece. This “shortfall” of €10–15 million essentially could not be covered—it was volume-related and did not allow the company to reach the €38 million adjusted EBITDA target. He added, however, that management may have been quite aggressive in its guidance, based on the estimate that this year would show a significantly better gap compared to last December, given that last year there was also the cyberattack on the group’s systems. As for this year, management avoided giving specific guidance, as the market is quite volatile, but the first quarter, in terms of sales and probably also at EBIT level, was very close to expectations.

The bets on the upgrade and Euronext
-The Euronext club was the catalyst that saved the Athens Stock Exchange from the intermediate stage of upgrade, which is inclusion in a watch list. Seven exchanges in developed markets and one in a watch list doesn’t make a very good impression. Now, to the question why May 2027 and not earlier, the answer is that the remarks made by institutional investors—in the meetings held by Euronext before the upgrade decision—seem to have played their role. At the same time, the 2027 decision gives time for portfolio reshuffling in institutional portfolios to happen more smoothly. The main question, however, is how the transition from emerging to developed markets will affect the stock market. The experience of 2001 is painful, and pessimistic are also the estimates of JP Morgan, as well as related reports by Goldman Sachs. On the other hand, Morgan Stanley is optimistic and argues that it met several emerging-market investors who intend to maintain 70% to 75% of their investments in Euronext Athens (as is the new name of ASE) even after its transition to developed markets. Let’s hope they are right…

They’re plucking the daisy over which stocks will enter the MSCI index
-The big question with the upgrade of the Stock Exchange is which stocks will remain in the MSCI Greece Index. No one, not even the big investment banks, can answer with certainty. There is consensus only on the four systemic banks and beyond that all scenarios remain open. Morgan Stanley predicts that only National Bank, Eurobank, Piraeus Bank, Alpha Bank and PPC will be included in the developed markets indices. On the other hand, JP Morgan, which as we said openly states that the upgrade is a negative development for the ASE, sees only the four systemic banks in the index, with some probability for OTE, and expects pressure and outflows for OTE, OPAP, PPC and Jumbo. Finally, Eurobank Equities noted in a report that an updated exercise suggests that Allwyn and OTE are on the edge of eligibility.

Euronext Athens era
-Tensions were not absent from yesterday’s extraordinary general meeting of the Hellenic Exchanges Group, which from now on we should get used to calling by its new name, Euronext Athens. As in previous meetings, lawyer Konstantinos Droungas raised objections and pointed out that he has sent an extrajudicial notice regarding the legality of the participation of the main shareholder (Euronext) in the AGM, arguing that it has no right to participate and therefore the general meeting cannot be convened as the required quorum is not met. Chairman Camille Beudin replied that all procedures were followed to the letter and the AGM is lawfully convened, and thus both the name change and the new remuneration policy were approved. Giannos Kontopoulos remains CEO, while independent non-executive members elected were Polyxeni Kazoli, and Georgios Doukidis and Nikolaos Krenteras.

A professionals’ market
-Only portfolios with strong tolerance to volatility and resilience are entering and exiting the market these days. The 8–10 stocks that usually make up the portfolios of professional managers stand out, who—for now—have one goal: to close the market again today with a strong positive sign so as to enter the four-day Easter (for Westerners) break having erased a large part of the losses brought by March. With the two very positive sessions yesterday and the day before and a similarly good course of the General Index today, bad March will be a painful memory. Yesterday, the General Index gained +3.15% and closed at 2,130.06 points with around €400 million in turnover (only €18 million in block trades), while on Tuesday it had posted gains of +2.9%. Indicative of the “professional” handling of the market is the fact that in the auction process after the close of the regular session, shares worth €80 million changed hands.

Coordinated reaction for industrial blue chips
-The session on the Athens Stock Exchange stood out due to the coordinated and dynamic return of buyers to the shares of energy-intensive industries, which in the previous period had been at the center of sell-offs. This shift, clearly reflected on the board, is interpreted as a strong relief rally, as investors reacted positively to the prospect of the Middle East war ending. The intervention to “freeze” military operations against energy infrastructure in Iran acted as a catalyst for the immediate de-escalation of oil and natural gas prices. For domestic industries—with the Viohalco group (Viohalco, Cenergy, ElvalHalcor), Titan and Metlen leading—the development translates into an immediate reduction of operating costs and protection of profit margins, which had been threatened by the prospect of a new energy shock. The outperformance of these stocks relative to the General Index shows that portfolios rushed to take advantage of the attractive valuations formed after the recent sell-off. Analysts note that the market repriced the strong fundamentals and the high backlog of orders of the sector’s companies, which remain resilient despite temporary fluctuations in global uncertainty. Particular emphasis is placed on the fact that the recovery was broad-based, covering the entire spectrum, from metallurgy to building materials.

The move by DryLog and Peter L shaping developments
-The delivery of the first LNG dual-fuelled kamsarmax bulk carrier by TSUNEISHI SHIPBUILDING CO. is not just an innovation, but a move with a clear strategic footprint. Behind the project is Global Chartering, a joint venture linking the heavy industry of ArcelorMittal—the world’s largest steel producer, also active in raw materials mining—with the traditional shipping expertise of DryLog of Peter Livanos. It is a vessel that can also run on LNG as fuel, drastically reducing CO₂, SOx and NOx emissions compared to conventional fuels. At this juncture, Peter L’s participation in green projects such as the LNG kamsarmax is not just adaptation but positioning. The presence of ArcelorMittal ensures that investment in such vessels is not only about technology or environmental compliance, but also strategic control of the raw materials transport chain, ensuring greater security and efficiency in its trade flows. LNG as a fuel remains an intermediate solution; despite clear environmental benefits and significant improvement in the EEDI index—introduced by the International Maritime Organization (IMO) to measure a ship’s energy efficiency and CO₂ emissions—it can hardly be considered the final alternative fuel for shipping. However, that may not matter much. Because in practice such investments aim not only at regulatory compliance, but also at positioning for the next day.

Big charterers want greater control
-The game is changing in VLCCs, with Greeks chartering rather than selling. Looking at recent deals in the VLCC supertanker sector, Wall Street analysts observed that traditional Greek shipowners are playing their game with strategic composure. The chartering of Olympic Lyra of Olympic Shipping & Management at $59,400 per day for a five-year time charter is not just a good deal, but shows how seasoned Greek owners are leveraging geopolitical risk and the new market dynamics, keeping VLCCs under their control instead of selling them to Sinokor/MSC or other major players. In the same vein, Maran Arete (318,400-dwt, built 2016) of Maria Angelicoussis agreed on a long-term time charter with Swiss trader Mercuria at $55,000 per day for five years, confirming that charterers are ready to pay golden rates to secure reliable Greek ships over the long term. What is interesting is that the market is not only looking at available vessels, but also those still under construction. For example, ExxonMobil chartered a scrubber-fitted VLCC to be delivered in 2027. Major oil companies are securing access to Greek ships even before they hit the water, as a hedge amid geopolitical uncertainty.

One and Only, As One, Only You….
-The entry of Alpha Omega Marine into orders for newbuild bulk carriers is very well calculated. The two Greek partners, Vassilis Pateras and Thanos Pasialis, leveraged their strong alliance with YZJ Maritime, a Chinese-interest investment company active in shipping, to secure slots at one of Asia’s most sought-after shipyards, Jiangsu Huatai Shipbuilding. The four orders of Green Dolphin-40 handysize vessels for delivery in 2027–2028 show that beyond money, networks, timing and decisiveness are needed. Alpha Omega Marine has already proven its ability in trading second-hand bulkers. It had bought three ships that turned out to be profitable and sold one of them at the right time, with the other two remaining in the fleet. The “sentimental” element in the naming of ships—One and Only, As One, Only You—adds a personal stamp, showing that decisions combine business logic and management with character. This move is not just about investing in bulkers. It is a positioning of strength in the market, with a long-term horizon and a strategy of partnerships.