The electoral landscape taking shape was analyzed on Direct by MARC CEO Thomas Gerakis. Speaking to Giorgos Evgenidis, he examined the significance of the war for Greece’s political scene, current trends, the possibility of a single-party majority for New Democracy, as well as the new dynamics expected from political parties likely to be announced by Alexis Tsipras and Maria Karystianou.

“Citizens are particularly worried about the war and its effects on the economy and security,” said Thomas Gerakis. “ND benefits from the situation, because in times of crisis there is usually a rally-around-the-flag effect. However, scandals and issues such as OPEKEPE and Tempi are hurting the party and holding it back.”

The MARC CEO pointed out that ND remains the leading party, and that this is one of the few certainties in the current political landscape.

“ND’s first place is not being challenged. It is polling higher than in the European elections, but lower than in the previous parliamentary elections. In estimates, it has lost about ten points from the 41% it won, as it is now around 30%. Those 10 points are what the next elections will be about.”

He continued: “Of those 10 points that have been lost, around 3% moves further right, another 3% moves further left, and the remaining 4% is undecided. ND is also losing support among farmers, self-employed professionals, and young people. But in the elections it will not primarily target them; it must focus on those who voted for it in 2023.”

Referring to PASOK, Thomas Gerakis noted: “PASOK is in second place, but it does not have the momentum to challenge ND for first place. Polls show that second place is a realistic goal, but no more than that.”

“PASOK is gaining slightly in percentages, but it is difficult for it to challenge ND for dominance,” he said, adding that it will also be affected by the emergence of new political formations.

Regarding the new parties, he said they are expected to play a role, though without threatening ND’s lead.

“The big question mark is second place. PASOK, Tsipras and Karystianou are all competing for it.”

Specifically about Maria Karystianou, he said that her support base is shrinking and lacks strong loyalty, whereas those saying they would vote for Tsipras “are more solid.”

He stressed, however, that her party should not be underestimated:

“Karystianou struggles with older age groups. People do not see her party as right-wing; they view it as anti-establishment, and that allows voters from different political camps to come together around it. If it performs well, it could damage center-right parties.”