Greetings, happy new month from tomorrow and happy autumn, we hope you have all returned, or are returning, safely, with summer-like heat still around and still in a relaxed mood. In politics, as you know, we are now on the final stretch to the Thessaloniki International Fair (TIF), and it looks like everything is ready, with Mitsotakis in his office until Saturday afternoon putting the finishing touches to his speech, before leaving for Chania for a few hours of relaxation, and as of this morning he is back at the Prime Minister’s Mansion. Now, whether he will add one or two surprises to the measures will be seen… by the applause, but in any case, have no doubt that this will be the most impressive TIF package of benefits of the four-year term, because, as is well known, elections are coming, and naturally they will be the toughest ones of all. Since we mentioned the ballot box, let me inform you that the MM pre-TIF poll is being finalized and its findings are good, better than they were at the corresponding point last year. There is no change in the overall picture, New Democracy is holding steady at 30% in the vote estimate, Tsipras is close to 18%, our Nikos at 11.5%… what goes up with the sun comes down with the sun, and President Maria is steadily heading downhill. If Mitsotakis manages to maintain these numbers over the next seven months, then he may well do slightly better at the ballot box, meaning that one way or another (a coalition government, a second election or both together) he will manage a third term. The prediction, although it is still very early, is shared by the majority of his friends and enemies, politicians and businesspeople.

Pierr’s all-nighter before TIF

-While the days leading up to TIF have traditionally been associated with late nights at the Ministry of Finance, Kyriakos Pierrakakis’s late-night stay on Nikis Street tonight will be for other — and indeed international — reasons. You see, on the sidelines of the G20 summit taking place these days in Asheville, North Carolina, an emergency G7 meeting will be held by videoconference — in which “our own” Pierrakakis is taking part as president of the Eurogroup. So, at around 11:30 p.m., the Greek finance minister will take a break from the TIF project to connect with the United States for approximately two hours. So, if you happen to pass through Syntagma Square around midnight tonight and see the lights on at the Ministry of Finance, then… it’s not what you think.

The dinner for the MPs

-Since I’m on the subject of TIF, this week Pierr, together with Deputy Ministers Petrallia and Markopoulos, has several meetings with social stakeholders. Also, on Friday evening, together with Nikos Papathanasis, he will host the now-established annual dinner for New Democracy MPs from northern Greece, for some political mingling and relaxation. Last year the gathering was held at “Zythos-Dore,” opposite the White Tower; this year I think they’ll end up having soutzoukakia.

Criticism of PASOK

-Since I’m on the subject of TIF, keep in mind that the PM’s office will continue its criticism of PASOK, with an eye on centrist voters who may be receptive to Mitsotakis’s political message and proposals. This became apparent in the case of Akrita, so Mitsotakis took over from spokesman Marinakis and went after Nikos A. over the fact that he votes for Akrita but did not vote for Stournaras, while the responses on the issue of private debt will also continue. A few days ago, after all, I wrote to you that there had been a survey before August which recorded 60% public approval of the government’s interventions on private debt.

The match begins

-Slowly but surely, the government’s match with Samaras will also begin, with him preparing to launch his party but in no hurry. The MM followed the appearance yesterday on SKAI by Samaras’s spokesman and close associate, Nikos Tsoutsias, and they believe that he did not adequately answer questions about the discussions Samaras held — quite rightly — with Erdogan when he was prime minister, while at the same time he is now accusing the government over the dialogue and the famous “calm waters.” Also, given that Samaras’s side is talking about faits accomplis at Greece’s expense, referring to the Turkish-Libyan memorandum, which no one in the world apart from Turkey and part of Libya recognizes, the MM believes that a little seriousness is also needed when criticizing the government on national issues.

A wildcard party?

-As for Samaras’s party, there are nevertheless various questions. First, what kind of party will it be? Will it be a party of opposition simply because Samaras wants to prevent Mitsotakis from remaining prime minister? Could it perhaps be a potential coalition partner? In this context, an article written by former deputy minister and close Samaras associate Thanasis Skordas in the local newspaper of the Municipality of Amarousion, Amarysia, is particularly interesting, as it also hints at Samaras’s run in the western sector of the B’ Athens constituency. “If, then, the next electoral choice does not lead to a single-party government, as seems likely, we will need to answer the simple question: who can be a reliable coalition partner?” Skordas asks, and continues: “If the forces of today’s center-left cannot or do not want to play this role, will we then seek, after the fact, to form a government through a disparate combination of forces, with different views on the economy, institutions, the country’s geopolitical orientation and our national issues? This is not serious planning for governing the country. A government needs more than a parliamentary majority. It needs a common direction, political affinity, clear positions and the ability to make difficult decisions without being undermined from day one.” Interesting, then, unless Skordas is improvising, which does not seem at all unlikely to me.

Samaras government vs. Mitsotakis government — spot the differences!

-Since we are talking about Samaras, I want to close with a comment. Yesterday his spokesman (journalist Tsoutsias) came out and described the current government as “one from Simitis with a little LAOS.” Really, does anyone remember the Samaras governments with plenty of PASOK and even more Mitsotakis? So let me remind you — not of the PASOK figures whose participation was compulsory because of the coalition government, such as Venizelos, Chrysochoidis, Konstantinopoulos, Christofilopoulou, and several others, but of Antonis Samaras’s New Democracy ministers: Adonis Georgiadis, Makis Voridis, Kostis Hatzidakis, Nikos Dendias, Notis Mitarakis, Vassilis Kikilias, Olga Kefalogianni, Kostas Tasoulas, Stavros Papastavrou, Sofia Voultepsi, Miltiadis Varvitsiotis, Giannis Andrianos and, of course, Kyriakos Mitsotakis. So, who… is missing today from Antonaros’s then “pure New Democracy” lineup? Argyris Dinopoulos, Makis Giakoumatos, Panos Panagiotopoulos, Babis Athanasiou. Remember that the more they talk, the more they will expose themselves…

1,700 products with price cuts

-Yesterday, after several rounds of negotiations, the final list of product codes under the national agreement on price reductions, which Takis Theodorikakos is overseeing for the government, was finalized. The final number of products included exceeded expectations, as the final list contains 1,700 product codes, namely branded products, private-label products, as well as 400 school supplies. The announcements will be made by the minister this morning, while I’m told that the average reduction is by no means insignificant, with the final figure settling at -9%.

Tsipras mobilizes

-During the TIF period, our president Alexis will open proceedings in the coming days, presenting his economic programme on Wednesday at the Porto Palace Hotel in Thessaloniki. Yesterday, his party announced a series of organizational officials across Greece, including quite a few unfamiliar faces but also some former SYRIZA MPs and party figures, while there is considerable mobilization to ensure that the hotel’s hall is packed on Wednesday. According to the plan so far, Tsipras will be the only one speaking that day and will present his proposals, which will also be fleshed out at the press conference he will give on the 9th, moderated by spokesperson Theoni Koufonikolakou, who remains firmly in place despite the various rumors and reports.

Star Bulk dual listing on September 9, 10 and 11

-And now to the market news, starting with the more pleasant ones, because suddenly a heavy cloud has begun hanging over the major economies. So, the next listing on the Stock Exchange is that of Petros Pappas’s Star Bulk. It will be a dual listing, with €100 million worth of shares to be offered. The process is scheduled for September 9, 10 and 11, and National Bank and AXIA are handling the deal. The shipping company needs little introduction: it is listed on Nasdaq, has total assets of $3.85 billion and shareholders’ equity of $2.51 billion. It has 138 vessels with a total capacity of 13.8 million Dwt and has a good track record when it comes to dividend distributions.

Measures for servicers after TIF

-I’m returning to the issue of servicers because the latest information is that the Finance Ministry’s intentions have not changed and measures will be taken, although the ministry will deal with the issue after the Thessaloniki fair. This is a complex and highly technical measure that must not affect the state guarantees on securitizations. So it has been put in line for after TIF, when the Finance Ministry will examine the options with the Bank of Greece, which supervises the servicers and has the necessary expertise.

Changes at Intrum Hellas

-The restructuring currently underway at Intrum Hellas appears set to extend to the upper levels of management as well, and of course we are not referring to the company’s CEO. The changes will not take long to be announced and will probably not come as a bolt from the blue to those who know the people and the ins and outs. After all, the group itself had already given some indication of this in its annual board report. “In 2026, Intrum Hellas REO Solutions will continue its growth strategy… As part of the need to successfully respond to the challenges of the Greek real estate market, the Company is proceeding with improvements to its operating model, with changes both in Management and in its processes.” And now that the holiday period is over, the time has come.

Piraeus Bank: Saves €15 million a year in interest

-The €500 million subordinated bond priced by Piraeus Bank at a 4% coupon last Thursday will lead the bank to annual interest savings of €15 million.

CrediaBank enters leasing

-Last Friday, August 28, CrediaBank proceeded with the establishment of a financial leasing arm. The new company is called Credia Leasing Χρηματοδοτικών Μισθώσεων M.A.E. and is headquartered in Chalandri, on Kifisias Avenue, where CrediaBank’s headquarters are located. The company’s main purpose is to provide advisory services in the areas of financial leasing under Law 1665/1986, as amended, operating leasing and all types of leasing to individuals and businesses, as well as legal entities of any kind and purpose, in Greece and abroad. Secondary activities also include capital management advisory services (capital structure and investments) and working-capital (liquidity) advisory services, as well as the provision of financial advice. The initial share capital amounts to €9 million and is fully subscribed by the sole founder-shareholder, CrediaBank. The first Board of Directors of Credia Leasing consists of Konstantinos Christodoulou (Chairman), Ioannis Christopoulos (CEO), and Evangelos Rizos, Dimitra Vourna, Maria Stathaki and Theodoros Karakasis as members. Its term is four years.

Credit expansion accelerates in the EU

-According to ECB data, the rate of growth in lending to businesses and households in the eurozone accelerated in July. Financing to non-financial corporations increased by 4.4% year-on-year, compared with 4.0% in June, while loans to households rose by 3.1%, up from 3.0% the previous month. July was the first full month following the ECB’s first interest-rate increase in nearly three years. The data point to stronger demand for credit following a prolonged period of subdued economic activity and are a positive sign for eurozone banks, which are also benefiting from the broader recovery in profitability and improved activity in capital markets. The acceleration in credit expansion reinforces the view that the improvement in economic activity will increasingly be reflected in the results of European banks. The European banking sector is trading at 11 times estimated 2027 earnings and with a dividend yield of close to 5%, with additional support from share buybacks. European banks remain a capable way of gaining exposure to the broadening earnings cycle of the European economy. And, of course, this reading also has positive knock-on benefits for the domestic banking system.

Euronext conference with 16 Greek participants

-On September 2 and 3, the Euronext Investment Conference on Infrastructure, Energy and Defence will be held in Milan. Of the 40 companies taking part, there is also strong Greek representation, with ADMIE, Athens International Airport, Avax, Piraeus Port Authority, PPC, Theon International, TITAN, Aegean Airlines, Cenergy Holdings, Elvalhalcor, GEK TERNA, Helleniq Energy Holdings, Lamda Development, Metlen Energy & Metals, Motor Oil and Safe Bulkers having registered to participate.