The sweeping victory of the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) in Saxony-Anhalt is now a foregone conclusion. What is far from certain, however, is who will govern the eastern German state, and how.

With the AfD holding 39 of 83 seats, three short of an outright majority, the traditional parties ruling out any cooperation with it, and the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) emerging as a likely kingmaker, the days ahead look extremely difficult.

At the same time, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU)‘s historic low has shifted the crisis to Berlin, sharply increasing the pressure on Chancellor Friedrich Merz.

The numbers behind the deadlock

The AfD took around 44% of the vote, more than doubling its 20.8% from 2021, while the CDU lost more than half its previous strength, falling to roughly 17 to 18%, down from 37.1%.

The Social Democrats (SPD), the Greens and the Left party all polled around 9%, while the BSW scraped over the 5% threshold needed to enter parliament. Turnout topped 76%, making this one of the most polarised elections Germany has seen in recent years.

The crucial detail, though, is how the seats break down. The AfD has secured 39 of the 83 available, and needs 42 for an absolute majority.

The BSW’s arrival with four seats rules out any chance of the AfD governing alone, but it also creates an extremely difficult puzzle for everyone else.

The current coalition of the CDU, the SPD and the Free Democratic Party (FDP) cannot continue, since the Free Democrats have failed to clear the threshold and re-enter parliament.

Nor does a CDU-SPD-Greens alliance have the numbers. Even adding the Left party, the four parties together hold only 40 seats, two fewer than the 42 required.

The Alternative for Germany (AfD) won around 44.5% of the vote in Sunday’s regional election, according to exit polls and projections — more than double its result five years ago. pic.twitter.com/UxcoxmAFJk

— CBS News (@CBSNews) September 6, 2026

BSW holds one of the keys

On paper, an AfD-BSW arrangement would command 43 seats, an absolute majority.

That, however, is a long way from meaning any political agreement already exists. The BSW has significant differences with the AfD, although the two converge on some issues, particularly their stance towards Russia and the war in Ukraine.

The BSW’s leadership in Saxony-Anhalt has avoided committing to a coalition with the AfD, while leaving open the possibility of case-by-case cooperation depending on the issue at hand.

Claudia Wittig, who led the BSW’s campaign alongside Thomas Schulze, has argued that it would be “completely undemocratic” to shut a party the size of the AfD out of government altogether.

The BSW has also rejected the logic of an absolute “firewall” against the right, which makes its next moves crucial to the political balance of power.

The ‘firewall’ faces its biggest test

Numerically, the simplest solution would be a CDU-AfD partnership, which would command 55 seats and a comfortable majority.

Politically, though, this is the hardest scenario of all, since it would mean the collapse of the “Brandmauer”, the firewall with which Germany’s mainstream parties have long ruled out any cooperation with the AfD.

The CDU has a party resolution barring cooperation with both the AfD and the Left party. That leaves it facing an almost paradoxical dilemma: it cannot form a stable majority with its traditional partners, but its alternatives all run into its own red lines.

A CDU minority government, tolerated or supported issue by issue by the Left party, is also on the table as a possible way out, though it would not offer a stable parliamentary majority.

The stakes are raised further by the fact that the AfD’s regional branch has been classified as a right-wing extremist organisation by Germany’s domestic intelligence agency, the Office for the Protection of the Constitution, a designation the party rejects.

Siegmund even threatens fresh elections

Ulrich Siegmund, the AfD’s leader in Saxony-Anhalt, shows no sign of softening his party’s core positions in order to secure a governing partner.

“We will not compromise, and we will not abandon our positions for the sake of a coalition,” he has said, presenting the result as a message that goes beyond the state’s borders.

He has even left open the possibility of Saxony-Anhalt returning to the polls if no workable government can be formed.

“If necessary, we’ll simply hold fresh elections, and then we’ll get 50% or 55%,” he said, though he did not rule out talks with any party, or with individual MPs.

The AfD believes the result gives it a clear mandate to govern. “People made it absolutely clear that they finally want political change, and above all, that they want that change to happen with us,” said the 35-year-old Siegmund.

He has repeatedly presented the AfD’s success in Saxony-Anhalt as a first step towards the party’s rise to power at federal level.

🇩🇪 German Chancellor Friedrich Merz:

“Germany has left nationalism behind and will never again allow ethnic nationalism in Germany.”

Follow: @europa pic.twitter.com/GxwQ3lJPnp

— Europa.com (@europa) September 7, 2026

From Magdeburg to Berlin: the problem for Merz

If the AfD is Sunday’s big winner, one of its most significant losers is hundreds of kilometres away from Magdeburg.

The result is a heavy personal blow for Chancellor Friedrich Merz. Under his leadership, the CDU has lost yet another state election, and in a region where the Christian Democrats dominated for decades.

The defeat has already opened an internal party debate over whether Merz can lead the CDU through to the next federal election.

Germany’s ARD broadcaster put the question bluntly, asking “how much longer can he hold out?”, noting that calls for his resignation are starting to be heard from the lower ranks of the CDU/CSU.

Tim Brand, an official with the CDU’s youth wing in Brandenburg, called for “a fresh start, on both a personal and political level”, urging Merz to step down as both chancellor and party leader and to call fresh federal elections.

Merz himself avoided commenting publicly after the result.

Nina Warken, head of the German Chancellery, described it as “a very difficult result”, adding that the CDU accepts it, but “will not simply swallow it”.

Germany’s far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) scored a historic victory in Sunday’s regional election in Saxony-Anhalt. At the center of the party’s rise is Alice Weidel, who has become one of the most recognizable faces of the AfD.

Weidel’s rise within the AfD reflects the… pic.twitter.com/n4BCEbBCX3

— CBS News (@CBSNews) September 6, 2026

German press sees a ‘chancellor problem’

Der Spiegel noted that talk inside the CDU is already turning to a “chancellor problem”, warning that the defeat could trigger “uncomfortable, even existential debates”.

The pressure could grow very quickly, since two more crucial state elections follow on 20 September, in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern and Berlin. The AfD looks particularly strong in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern too.

Handelsblatt called it a “historic night”, describing the result as a “historic success” for the AfD and a “fiasco” for the CDU.

Die Zeit described the mood at the Christian Democrats’ election night venue as a mix of “shock, disappointment and anguish”, saying the silence there was different from that of an ordinary electoral defeat.

Süddeutsche Zeitung’s assessment was even starker. “The centre has failed, the AfD is coming dangerously close to power,” it wrote, arguing that Germany can no longer consider itself “immune to right-wing extremism”.

CDU leadership tries to shut down resignation talk

The Christian Democrats’ leadership is nonetheless trying to put a brake on talk of Merz’s immediate departure.

Thorsten Frei, leader of the CDU/CSU parliamentary group, ruled out both the Chancellor resigning and any prospect of a cabinet reshuffle.

“The Chancellor is elected for four years,” he said, insisting the government remains “in good shape”.

He acknowledged, however, that the message from the ballot box has to be taken seriously, and that the government needs to “involve people even more” and listen to their concerns.

The battle over Merz’s future, then, is far from decided. But the result in Saxony-Anhalt has significantly raised the stakes for the next two state elections.

From Trump and Musk to Tusk: two readings of the result

The electoral upset in Saxony-Anhalt has triggered strong and entirely opposing reactions abroad.

Donald Trump posted a screenshot of the AfD’s projected result on Truth Social, without adding any comment of his own.

US President Donald Trump posted the results of the Sachsen-Anhalt election showing a landslide victory for the far right Alternative for Germany, AfD. Their candidate Ulrich Siegmund told me he wants strong ties with the US and Russia. @CNN @claudiaotto @sebshukla pic.twitter.com/xBVQjKJ4X4

— Frederik Pleitgen (@fpleitgenCNN) September 6, 2026

Elon Musk congratulated AfD co-leader Alice Weidel and the party on X with a simple “Well done”, to which Siegmund thanked him for his support and said he hoped for “close and constructive cooperation” once the party takes on government responsibility.

Russian presidential envoy Kirill Dmitriev also welcomed the result, calling it a “historic victory” for the AfD.

On the other side, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk used unusually sharp language, writing that “in Poland, only fools or traitors could celebrate the AfD’s triumph in Germany”.

France’s Europe minister, Benjamin Haddad, called it “a serious moment for Europe”, stressing that “nationalism and xenophobia are never the answer” and urging democratic forces to listen to citizens’ anger and concerns without abandoning European values.

Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani described the AfD’s win as “terrible news”, expressing hope it would prove to be an isolated case at local level.

Celebrations from Europe’s far right

The reaction from political forces ideologically close to the AfD was entirely different.

Herbert Kickl, leader of the Austrian Freedom Party (FPÖ), spoke of political change taking hold in Germany, saying “the strong wind of freedom from 1989 is blowing once again”.

According to Kickl, voters have torn down the “anti-democratic firewall” around the AfD, and he added that he hoped to one day see Alice Weidel become Chancellor.

In the Czech Republic, the Speaker of the Chamber of Deputies, Tomio Okamura, also congratulated the AfD and said he hoped to see it join the next government in Saxony-Anhalt.

By contrast, Charlotte Knobloch, the 93-year-old Holocaust survivor and head of the Jewish community in Munich and Bavaria, voiced deep unease. “On days like this, I find it hard to recognise my own country any more,” she said, calling on Germany’s democratic parties not to stand by as bystanders.

Germany’s far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) is projected to win a regional election in Saxony-Anhalt with around 44 per cent of the vote, more than double its result five years ago. pic.twitter.com/pmE5AkPSdW

— Al Jazeera English (@AJEnglish) September 6, 2026

The real battle starts now

The morning after in Saxony-Anhalt is no longer about who won the election. It is about whether that result can be turned into power.

The AfD is closer than ever to governing a German state, but without a majority of its own and without an obvious partner. The BSW has gained influence out of all proportion to its vote share, while the CDU must choose between an extremely unstable coalition and challenging political taboos that, until now, were considered non-negotiable.

And above all this now hangs the political fate of Friedrich Merz. The coming days in Magdeburg will decide who can govern Saxony-Anhalt. The next two state elections, though, may decide something far bigger: how much longer the Chancellor’s position in Berlin can hold.