With the political season now in full swing following the completion of the political leaders’ appearances at the Thessaloniki International Fair, the time has come to assess their performances. The week ahead will be a week of opinion polls, both for the Maximos Mansion and the media. The government team was already running figures last week and will receive an updated measurement in the coming days, taking an overall assessment of everything said from the stage of the Vellidio Conference Center and during the press conferences.

For the media, too, it will be a week of opinion polls, as surveys are due to be published by several national and local broadcasters. At least three polls will be released this week, with more to follow, as everyone wants to have a picture of the initial political balance of forces. Estimates, however, are that the balance has largely taken shape: New Democracy gained around one percentage point immediately after the Thessaloniki International Fair, but what is crucial for the Maximos Mansion team is the breakdown by voter group. Alexis Tsipras’s ELAS appears to have plateaued at around 15–16% in voting-intention estimates and is believed to be facing a problem with its potential voter pools, while PASOK is showing signs of consolidation, moving around 11%, and at Harilaou Trikoupi they want to see whether Nikos Androulakis’s appearance at the Thessaloniki International Fair will give them a boost. This is why they had strongly protested against the GPO poll for Star in recent days, although that survey did incorporate Androulakis’s appearance in Heraklion.

Within the government more broadly, however, they estimate that the balance of forces at this stage is largely academic, as voters will see and assess the measures…in their own pockets. And, of course, the potential Samaras party remains an unpredictable factor and is generating discussion.

Messages from Kastellorizo

Kyriakos Mitsotakis returned to base yesterday afternoon following his two-day visit to Kastellorizo, which was packed with messages and symbolism.

“I know how much it saddened us, how much the image of 2010 saddened you, with Kastellorizo being chosen as the setting in which the country’s passage into the painful years of the bailout memoranda was announced,” he said, making an indirect reference to PASOK. He spoke of “a connection the island did not deserve”, contrasting that period with today: “And here, as throughout Greece, thankfully things are different.”

Mr Mitsotakis announced a package of measures to subsidise people staying and serving on the remote border island, as well as a series of interventions to improve everyday life and infrastructure. At the same time, he sent a clear message to Turkey. “We do not threaten anyone, but neither do we accept threats or instructions from anyone. We are ready to defend our national integrity and our sovereign rights,” he made clear, describing the island as an “emblematic place” from which to articulate Greece’s position on “a future of peace, with the doors closed to all revisionist ambitions”, while keeping the path open to mutual respect and legality.

Promoting the measures and the difficulties ahead

At the Maximos Mansion, they will not rest on the announcements made at the Thessaloniki International Fair. Instead, whenever the opportunity arises, they will promote the measures by social group, while stressing that New Democracy is the only political force with a proven record of credibility when it comes to its commitments. Mr Mitsotakis regularly refers to what he calls a “passport of credibility”, pointing out that fulfilling previous promises provides stronger guarantees that the new commitments will also be delivered. After all, the programme announced by Mr Mitsotakis includes measures and initiatives that extend beyond the government’s current political term and reach well into the next four-year period.

The word “Horizon” featured prominently, as the prime minister, before travelling to Thessaloniki, had heard and embraced recommendations that he should not limit his appearance to listing benefits, but should instead outline a broader political and economic vision that would be inclusive and ambitious in an extremely difficult set of circumstances.

Of course, precisely this economic environment over the coming months is far from rosy. Greece is witnessing the following paradox: while the international environment is extremely adverse, the government here is announcing benefits, reducing public debt through early repayments and presenting itself as confident about macroeconomic stability. Inflationary pressures, of course, are a given. The escalation of tensions in the Middle East is driving fuel prices sharply higher, while the economic team is clearly very concerned about the price at which heating oil will be sold from October onwards.

In any event, fiscal reserves have been provided for independently of the Thessaloniki package, and support for fuel, including heating oil, will continue in the coming months if deemed necessary, in order to prevent prices at the pump from “surging”.

The party and Samaras

Alongside promoting the measures and attempting to reconnect with key New Democracy audiences, a “reshuffle” within the New Democracy party will also be under way, with the aim of putting it into its final electoral configuration. New Democracy secretary Konstantinos Kyranakis has settled on the personnel changes to be made, while the party’s Inter-Secretariat will also become a more “compact” body that will meet more regularly. The Political Committee, together with its elected members, will likewise meet regularly and submit proposals to the government in the form of resolutions, while the party secretaries will be “paired” with ministers.

Over the coming weeks, around 100 candidate names will also be announced, while Mr Mitsotakis used the Thessaloniki International Fair to grant a small extension of time, logically until early 2027, for deputy regional governors who wish to be included on the New Democracy candidate lists to resign from their positions. The prospect of their inclusion is already generating disputes, while at a summer festival there was even a violent incident between a New Democracy-affiliated deputy regional governor and a New Democracy MP in a major regional constituency.

New Democracy is also keeping a close eye on Samaras’s moves. Immediately after the Thessaloniki International Fair, Mr Mitsotakis stressed to his associates that there was no need to continue the sharp “war” of words with the former prime minister, so that New Democracy would not become trapped in a discussion that would be unproductive for it.

In any event, associates of the prime minister “mapped” constituencies in northern Greece in the days before the Thessaloniki International Fair, recording intense activity among mid-ranking party figures as well as former candidates, who consider a move to the Samaras party currently being formed to be “depoliticised”, with Samaras maintaining that he represents the “political camp”, in contrast to “Mr Mitsotakis’s New Democracy”.

On the other hand, a source familiar with the developments estimates that the Maximos Mansion will not leave matters to chance at local level and will seek to “put the brakes on” defections of party figures towards Samaras, while it is considered certain that, as the country moves towards the ballot box, polarisation will increase and local disputes between New Democracy figures and those of the party being formed by Samaras will become fierce.