–Greetings, Mitsotakis is in San Francisco and is meeting major investors, among other contacts, and when I asked a very well-known businessman how come there is such a great deal of “appetite” among foreign funds and international business groups to “put” capital into Greece, he replied with a smile: “Look, because they see that Mitsotakis is 15-17 points ahead of his second political opponent, they believe he’ll get another four-year term, so everything is fine and calm in Greece, we carry on.” When I asked him whether these investors, funds, etc., knew the percentages needed for a single-party majority and were aware of the electoral law, he gave me a disarming answer: “Probably not, which is why they’re certain we’ll have a stable government again, unless they know something more, because in 2023 we were saying New Democracy would get 33%-34% and it got 41%.” I’m saying all this not by chance because as we get closer to the elections, the issue of coalitions and non-single-party governments will increasingly be put on the table. And Mitsotakis will be the first and foremost to raise it, for a very specific and politically self-evident reason. And as you can understand, the pressure will not fall on Tsipras, he is a given opponent, but on Nikos A. (he was, they say, abroad over the weekend and did not attend Margarita’s funeral), who will have to find a convincing answer. If you’ve noticed, Mitsotakis has already started this refrain: “We will seek a single-party majority, but if the people don’t want us to govern alone, we will have to go and find a solution…” he says at every opportunity, or something along those lines. And if Androulakis is third, what will he tell the people, that I won’t go with him because I don’t like his face? “So Androulakis will have one choice (if he is third): either become a coalition partner, or go home,” they say at the Maximos Mansion, and you will see this escalating over the coming months.

Yannitsis

-Since we’re on PASOK, I heard Tasos Giannitsis say that today corruption is 200 times greater than it was in the era when they were in government, mainly during the Simitis era. Without taking out a ruler to measure corruption and compare what was happening then and now, okay, let’s not exaggerate about PASOK either, they weren’t exactly virgins. During their time in office, Akis was found (10 years later, of course) to have accounts with something like €50 million in Switzerland, some €10 million with Zigras, some houses, etc. Also, the whole business of “national suppliers” was created by the Simitis government, while the train robbery on the Stock Exchange also took place during the same period. Careful, this does not mean that Simitis, Giannitsis and the majority of the ministers and party officials were involved in the scandals. But whether they knew what was going on or not, that is for everyone to judge for themselves.

Farantouris-Avlonitis

-I’m staying with PASOK to say a good word about our Nikos, in the sense that a man can’t even go away for a little while, my brother, for a weekend, and come back to find that his people have turned everything upside down. Then there’s Farantouris, who, no matter how much he tried to correct it, essentially told Sdoukou that she had been dealing with ministers and that it would be a good idea for her to correct that properly. Not to mention that, as Marinakis pointed out, the woman is married and has three children. And as if that weren’t enough, along came Nikos’… airport transfer, Avlonitis, a former SYRIZA and former Kasselakis man, who said in the morning… let’s cooperate with the Hellenic Police, SYRIZA, Plefsi and then, of course, after getting slammed, he took it all back. What can the man (Nikos) possibly keep up with when he isn’t exactly known for being the fastest man in the world?

The same at ELAS, the bench is coming…

-Not that poor Alexis in the new party doesn’t have issues of his own, just like Androulakis. On the one hand, the own goals in communications, from safe-deposit boxes, “global database” and yachts, and on the other, the needle beginning to get slightly stuck in the polls, Alexis took drastic measures. I had written to you that a “total facelift” was coming for the EL.A.S. officials, and so yesterday we saw not one, not two, but 596 officials across the country. They won’t be candidates, they say, but will organize the party locally, which will soon also be changing its “strike force.” After the first — and probably trial — period, the new crop will take on the battle on television panels for EL.A.S., that is, those who comfortably passed the first crash test, such as: Fani Pagkalou, Kyveli Marda, Giorgos Konstantinidis, Anastasis Zanias, Argyri Benetios, Christina Tsangli, Dimitris Tsekерis, Fani Kountouri, Giannis Salpeas, Fani Giotaki and Sotiris Tsoukares. With the first autumn rains, of course, the first members of the “old guard” will also arrive, that is, officials from the once-united SYRIZA, who are taking their time, not only because EL.A.S. is pushing the new and fresh faces. You see, there are also some old and powerful ones who are in no hurry to give up their parliamentary seats under any circumstances before Christmas.

Kasidiaris’ tricks

-After spending a weekend in bars and staying out all night, Kasidiaris appeared on Monday morning to promote the “Alliance of Greeks” party, which has been set up by a friend of his, Dimitrokallis, and two other MPs named Valtogianis and Manousos. He did not, of course, make clear to what extent he himself will participate, beyond promoting the new political entity, which we may soon see emerging as a measurable force in the polls, as pollsters are finding spontaneous responses along the lines of “Ilias’ party.” Kasidiaris’ only option, however, is to run as an independent and IF the party gets past the Supreme Court to cooperate as an independent. Of course, all of this is just planning on paper, which the Supreme Court is also monitoring since it is all happening out in the open.

The blue party’s October 4 celebration

-While New Democracy may not be PASOK, celebrating its birthday with car horns and recordings of Andreas, which few people remember anyway, it is nevertheless looking into holding a relaxed afternoon event on Sunday, October 4, on the anniversary of the party’s founding. I’m told they are looking for a venue in central Athens, where banners will be put up — nothing staged with rows of chairs and long-winded speeches. Obviously there will be a stage for Mitsotakis to speak, but that’s about it. I’m told the invitations will not be personalized; they will concern all party members, but apparently the former presidents may also receive an extra nod, though I wouldn’t swear to it. For example, K.M. recently made a routine phone call to Karamanlis for his birthday, without exactly melting the ice, of course, so I doubt whether the former prime minister will attend New Democracy’s birthday celebration either. He didn’t go to the event in Rigillis for the party’s 50th anniversary — will he go this year?

The trilateral and the follow-up

-A few days ago, Mitsotakis and Christodoulides were in El Alamein and met with Egyptian President el-Sisi, in order to send a message that the trilateral alliance remains strong and robust, despite Turkey’s flirtation with Cairo. That is why I do not consider today’s trilateral meeting of the defense ministers in Egypt at all coincidental, with the participation of Dendias and Cypriot Defense Minister Vasilis Palmas, because these are not things you leave to chance. And because the region is sensitive, it is better to keep your friends close.

The Blue Electricity Tariff Brings Queues to PPC Counters

-Just twenty days after appearing on the market, PPC’s fixed-rate offer appears to be becoming a catalyst for mass consumer switching, while at the same time easing significant pressure on the government for new electricity subsidies. The charge of 11.5 cents per kilowatt-hour and the €3.5 monthly fixed fee come at a time when households are seeking security amid uncertainty and the visible risk of an expensive energy winter. Requests are arriving by the thousands every day, resulting, in some cases, in longer activation times. PPC appears to be turning consumers’ anxiety over their next bill into a major commercial advantage. The company’s low tariff is becoming a headache for other providers, which, amid the energy storm, are being called upon to redesign their commercial strategies. And this comes at a time when, in the first twenty days of September, the wholesale market —the main reflection of retail tariffs— is 17.2% more expensive than in August. The pressure on competition is already visible. The blue products of other providers are priced at between 11.9 and 18.9 cents per kilowatt-hour, meaning they are 3.5% to 64.3% more expensive than PPC’s offer. The gap is even greater in the fixed monthly fees, which drive up the monthly bill, as they range from €7 to €16 per month, compared with €3.5 for PPC. This represents an additional charge ranging from 100% to as much as 357% higher. A sign of the disruption caused in the electricity supply market is that even providers with more expensive products are attempting to contain their losses by reducing fixed fees or even offering zero-fee plans. These moves are aimed both at new customers and existing ones, who are asking to renegotiate their terms or saying they will terminate their contracts in order to switch to PPC. As of July, approximately 3.2 million electricity connections remained on green tariffs, according to RAAEY. This is the large pool PPC is now targeting — and the difficult battle facing its competitors. But even those who had cheaper blue tariffs from competing providers, which have since expired, are now at the mercy of the geopolitical crisis. It should be noted that PPC’s specific tariff will remain available until October 31, meaning for approximately another 40 days, a factor expected to further increase consumers’ sense of urgency.

Tourism Heads for New Revenue Record Despite the… Elevator Ride

-The… elevator ride in bookings experienced by tourist destinations across Greece throughout the summer due to geopolitical factors and financial pressures on the pockets of European, American and other international tourists is reflected in the Bank of Greece balance-of-payments data, based on the official figures for June and July, while the market is eagerly awaiting August, the “hottest” month of the Greek summer. July “broke” the previous streak of growth in inbound travel, with arrivals of non-resident travelers appearing 3.1% lower compared with July 2025. Receipts, however —which are the figures that matter more— moved up 7.2%, reaching €4.72 billion, from €4.4 billion last year. June had moved in the opposite direction, with inbound travel increasing by 6.9%, while the rise in receipts was very modest, at just 1.2% compared with June 2025, reaching €3.48 billion. Overall, in the January–July seven-month period, inbound travel is up 8.6%, while it is positive that tourism receipts have climbed above €13.5 billion, increasing at a faster pace than arrivals and, moreover, by a double-digit rate of 12%. As we await August, and regardless of the fact that a significant portion of the increase in tourism revenue is also attributed to inflation, the sector appears, based on the official figures available so far, to be heading toward another record year in revenues.

Intrum Hellas: Change at the Top of the Management Pyramid

-The organizational reshuffling at Intrum continues. Maria Vergi is leaving Intrum Hellas, after having been with the company since its establishment in 2019. M. Vergi held the position of Deputy Managing Director and was an Executive Member of the Board of Directors, with responsibility for the Portfolios’ Management, Strategy & Business Development pillar. At the same time, she served on the Boards of Directors of Intrum BTB and Intrum Real Estate Solutions. She has approximately 30 years of experience in the financial sector and is a graduate of the Athens University of Economics and Business. Before taking on the role of Deputy Managing Director, she had served as General Manager of the Corporate Loans Division and previously as Deputy General Manager and Head of SME Recovery.

An Unexpected and Fierce Clash

-In a small but particularly dynamic financial group, one of those that the market applauds every quarter, the two top executives clashed fiercely. The cause was a disagreement over strategy: how quickly, in which direction and with what level of risk one should grow when everything is going well. Disagreements of this kind are the most dangerous, because both sides have numbers to show for themselves. The tension did not remain confined to the executive floor, as it reached the ears of the main shareholder, who always has the final say and rarely has to use it twice.

Notopoulou’s New (Business) Venture

–Katerina Notopoulou, a former SYRIZA MP who resigned in July, setting her sights on Alexis Tsipras’ EL.A.S., may be considered “locked in” as a candidate in Thessaloniki, but, as it appears, she is not abandoning her (other) professional ambitions either. In her biography, she says she grew up in central Thessaloniki. “I played, ran, laughed, fell in love and dreamed of a beautiful life in its streets and squares. That is the dream I fight for, together with its people. I studied Psychology at Aristotle University of Thessaloniki and completed postgraduate studies in European Youth Policies at the University of Macedonia. I specialized in Counseling Psychology and pursued theater as an amateur,” she says. She emphasizes that she has been working since she was eighteen, “initially as a saleswoman, then as a secretary, then as an English teacher at a foreign-language school, and after completing my studies I worked as a psychologist in social services and volunteered with NGOs.” This was followed by her career in SYRIZA, beginning in 2016 as head of the office of the then Prime Minister in Thessaloniki, and subsequently as an MP and deputy minister. Why am I writing all this? I learned that yesterday Katerina Notopoulou established the company SynaptiK Single-Member Private Company (I.K.E.), based in Athens on Amaliados Street. The company’s purposes include a wide range of activities: mental health services provided by psychologists and psychotherapists, excluding physicians; marketing consultancy services; administrative services related to tourism; psychological research services; psychotherapist and psychologist services and conference organization; as well as the provision of business consulting services and the organization of educational seminars. The company’s initial share capital amounts to €2,000, paid by Katerina Notopoulou, who will also manage it. Good business…

Dark Clouds over Romania

–Romania is now dangerously close to losing its investment-grade rating, with the prolonged political crisis threatening to turn into a fiscal and financial one. Fitch maintains the country at BBB-, the last “step” before junk status, with a negative outlook, and warns that time is running out to restore political and fiscal credibility. The inability to form a stable government and the possibility of early elections put at risk the implementation of the required fiscal adjustment. Despite the reduction in the deficit from the explosive 9.3% of GDP in 2024, Fitch forecasts it at 5.9% in 2026 and estimates that additional measures of around 1.5% of GDP are needed to halt the deterioration of the debt position. The critical test is now the 2027 budget and the presentation of a credible plan to bring the deficit back toward 3%. Without a stable government, however, the ability to implement such a plan is being called into question. A downgrade to junk would open a new, much more difficult chapter for Romania, intensifying pressure on government bonds and increasing the risk for Greek companies operating in the country, including Jumbo, Fourlis, PPC, Sarantis and others.

Shifting Shareholding Balance at Papoutsanis

-The Friday block trades are bringing about a reshuffling of the shareholding balance at Papoutsanis, with CEO Menelaos Tasopoulos significantly increasing his position and Chairman George Gatzaros further reducing his stake. Tasopoulos purchased 600,000 shares through a pre-arranged transaction at €3.50 per share, for a total of €2.1 million, raising the direct and indirect stake he controls to 25.96%, from 23.79% previously. On the other side of the transaction, following the sale, Gatzaros controls 20.13% of Papoutsanis. Tasopoulos is now firmly established as the larger of the two main shareholders who are actively involved in the company’s management, while Gatzaros continues the gradual reduction of his position. It is recalled that in May he sold 50,000 shares, bringing his stake at the time to 22.41%, while another sale of 50,000 shares had been disclosed last November.

Shareholders’ Divorce Before the Stock Market Listing

-Last May, reports were certain that Active Computer Systems was preparing for its listing on the Athens Stock Exchange. The Extraordinary General Meeting of shareholders had approved the inclusion of all the company’s shares in Euronext Athens’ EN.A. Growth. It had also approved a capital increase of up to €6.03 million, through the issuance of up to 60.3 million new shares, without pre-emption rights for existing shareholders, in order to achieve a wider free float. The group’s figures are not small by Greek standards. In 2025, it posted consolidated revenue of €61.2 million, adjusted EBITDA of €10.5 million and net profit of €5.7 million. Suddenly, in August, an announcement was issued on the “consolidation of the shareholding structure.” Chairman and CEO Giannis Stasinopoulos, who founded the company in 1995 (and is not related to the listed Stasinopoulos family), held 50% and acquired 100%. The official announcement did not name the shareholder who sold the other half. It did not mention a price. Nor did it contain the customary phrase thanking the departing partner after years of cooperation. Perhaps the omission of the name of Dimitris Spiliopoulos was not an oversight by the person who drafted the announcement. Friendly divorces are announced by name. EN.A. Growth is still mentioned in the announcement, but with a different verb. In May, the listing had been “approved.” In August, it is described as “pursued” and as a “strategic horizon.” Before that come three “pillars” (cloud, cybersecurity and managed services) and a €14 million investment plan co-financed by the Recovery Fund. Four months have passed since the General Meeting, and no timetable has been announced. A capital increase without pre-emption rights dilutes two 50% shareholders equally. In May, the two shareholders agreed in principle. The price, timing and who will be running the company the day after are another matter. When there is disagreement on those issues, the listing is delayed.

There Were Unexecuted Orders Left Over

-The following day was not the worst. The market had approached yesterday’s session with concern. Friday had posted a record turnover of €4.26 billion, but the General Index closed down 0.99%, at 2,661 points. The week ended down 2.39% and broke a streak of eight consecutive weeks of gains. The upgrade to developed-market status had by then been completed. Most analysts expected profit-taking, given that the year-to-date return exceeds 25%. The opening appeared to confirm their expectations. During the first hour, the index fell to as low as 2,648 points (-0.48%), with turnover of just €31 million. It then turned upward, choosing to follow the path of optimism charted by the major European capital markets. The General Index closed at 2,676.02 points, up 0.55%. Trading activity was high, at €329 million, of which €16 million concerned pre-arranged block trades. One possible explanation lies in the orders that had remained unexecuted. Pre-arranged blocks began to go through from the start of the session. Friday’s closing auction did not accommodate everyone who wanted to buy, and those who were left out returned on Monday, with prices having fallen by approximately 2.5% over the course of a week. Funds that track developed-market indices are required to buy the stocks added to the index, regardless of the day. Individual stocks attracted greater interest than the index itself. Those that had led the rally of recent weeks corrected: Athens International Airport (-5.70%), EYDAP (-2.24%), Coca-Cola (-0.79%), PPC (-2.24%). Those that had lagged because liquidity had been directed toward the “upgrade stocks” made up some of the lost ground: Viohalco (+6.23%), ElvalHalcor (+4.34%), Cenergy (+3.95%), Metlen (+4.16%), Aegean (+3.17%), Titan (+1.99%), Lamda (+1.19%), ELPE (+1.37%). This points to money moving within the market rather than exiting it.

How Saudi Aramco’s Decision Affects the Market

–Saudi Aramco informed at least two European refineries that they would not receive allocations of Saudi crude next month, following the drone attack that led to the shutdown of the critical East-West pipeline to the Red Sea. The flow may be partially restored in the coming days, while the pipeline’s full reopening could take up to six weeks. European refineries typically receive Saudi crude from Sidi Kerir, on the Mediterranean coast of Egypt, via a pipeline connected to the Red Sea. The disruption has triggered rush purchases to cover shortages, with Poland’s Orlen having launched more than ten tenders since Friday to secure alternative supplies. As for Greek refineries, Saudi crude accounts for 5% of the refining mix, while Helleniq Energy does not disclose the exact percentage. In its 2025 annual report, Helleniq only states that Saudi Arabia is among its six main suppliers —alongside Kazakhstan, Iraq, Libya, Norway and Egypt— which together accounted for approximately 80% of its crude oil and other raw-material supplies.

The S&P During the U.S. Midterm Elections

–Since 1930, the S&P 500 has declined by an average of 1.1% during the final two weeks of September, before recovering in October. During U.S. midterm election years, the index has recorded an average gain of 5.6% from the end of September through New Year’s Eve.

Economou Smelled the Trucking Rally Coming

–George Economou knows his way around shipping cycles. And this time, Classic Maritime chartered the Cape Excelsior for a voyage from Brazil to China at $42.30 per ton, levels that this particular route had not seen since 2021. And it probably is not a lone “flash in the pan.” Danish-owned Norden fixed a similar voyage at an even higher rate, at $42.60, while market talk now has asking rates exceeding $43. For Economou, of course, Capesizes are anything but terra incognita. He has experienced the major rises and sharp corrections of the freight market many times and knows well how quickly the picture can change. For now, however, the wind is blowing in favor of large bulk carriers. Increased iron ore shipments from Brazil to Asia are keeping vessels employed for longer and pushing up owners’ asking rates.

Who Met at Astir and Why

-Those who were at Nafsika Terrace at Astir Palace on Friday evening for the Cyprus Union of Shipowners’ dinner in honor of Nikos Christodoulides realized that the gathering carried strong symbolism, but also quite a bit of behind-the-scenes significance. Alongside the Cypriot President were the President of the Hellenic Republic, Konstantinos Tasoulas, and host Polys Hatzioannou, while leading figures from the Greek and Cypriot shipping industries were also present. And that is where the evening’s second reading lies. Because it is one thing for Athens and Nicosia to talk about a common line on shipping and another to see political leadership and powerful shipowners gathered in the same room. The slogan could have been “Greece–Cyprus, strength through unity,” but this time with a clearly shipping-related dimension. Cyprus has the third-largest fleet in Europe, with Greece the superpower, accounting for 61% of the total. The two countries are seeking closer coordination on the major fronts facing shipping, from the security of sea lanes to the green transition and European competitiveness. Christodoulides set the tone by speaking of the “excellent cooperation between Cyprus and Greece,” while Tasoulas made the maritime dimension even clearer. The two countries have a “shared interest, but also a shared responsibility” to protect freedom of the seas. The strongest line, however, was reserved for Polys Hatzioannou: “Without a strong European shipping industry, autonomy cannot exist,” he said, while also reminding those present that the first shipowners to place their trust in the Cypriot flag were Greek shipowners.

What the Greeks See in VLCCs and Why They Are Loading Up

-The Greeks see something in very large crude carriers — VLCCs and are putting serious money on the table. At a time when the Strait of Hormuz crisis has upended the balance in oil transportation and VLCC freight rates have reached levels that would have seemed unreal just a few months ago, major Greek names are building the fleet of the next day. The most characteristic case is Dynacom, which has created a huge shipbuilding program at Hengli, now including 20 VLCCs, along with Suezmax, Kamsarmax and the new VLACs. This is a multibillion-dollar commitment that goes far beyond the current market conditions. Nikos Tsakos is moving in the same direction, with three VLCCs at Hanwha Ocean, having even pointed out that the prices at which he contracted the vessels are already significantly below today’s valuations. The real interest, therefore, is not today’s freight rates. It is what they expect to happen when the new vessels begin to be delivered. Because by 2028–2030, Hormuz may have returned to normal, trade flows may have changed again and hundreds of new VLCCs may have been added to the market. That is precisely where the bet lies. The Greeks are not merely buying into today’s market boom but betting on its next cycle. And when some of the most experienced players in ocean shipping commit such sums in the same direction, it is worth looking not only at freight rates, but also at the delivery schedule.

Tough Times for the Princes of Advertising (Except One)

-Two of the world’s biggest advertisers changed media agencies within 10 days. Neither of them held a pitch. On September 2, PepsiCo awarded its global consolidated media account to Publicis, without a pitch. This brought to an end a three-decade relationship with Omnicom, which retains the creative, sports and Public Relations work. COMvergence estimates that the 2025 budget is around $1.7 billion. Omnicom reportedly learned about it just hours before the announcement. Its stock lost 5% and closed at $81.76, while Barclays estimates lost fees of around $100 million a year. One week later, it was WPP’s turn. LVMH is handing its media business across Asia-Pacific, except Japan, to Publicis from January 2027, while Dentsu will retain Japan. WPP had held the account since 2017, across 13 markets, through its specialist L’Atelier unit. The portfolio includes more than 75 houses, from Louis Vuitton and Dior to Sephora. Publicis has already handled a significant portion of the group’s media in North America since 2023. The victory came at a heavy price. Publicis withdrew from the pitch for Coca-Cola’s international media account, worth around $4 billion, where it was a finalist against WPP, which is now reportedly close to a deal. And Coca-Cola put its North American media account up for pitch, which Publicis had won only last year. Omnicom and Dentsu are competing for it. The numbers explain the direction in which clients are moving. Publicis posted organic growth of 4.8% in the second quarter, a record first-half margin of 17.5%, and raised its full-year target to 4.5%-5%. In the first half, it added a net 2,385 employees, while WPP is preparing hundreds of layoffs under its Elevate28 program and Omnicom is cutting jobs as it integrates Interpublic. Arthur Sadoun had said as early as April that only organic growth matters, “the rest is poetry.” When a client doesn’t even ask for a second offer, the pitch has taken place somewhere else, and much earlier.

The Club of the Middle Powers

-Four interesting signatures appeared beneath an article in the Financial Times yesterday, on the eve of the 81st United Nations General Assembly. They belong to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Mark Carney, António Costa and William Ruto, representing Brazil, Canada, the European Council and Kenya, respectively. The initiative is called Partners for Multilateralism, or P4M. The four leaders describe a “flexible, open framework” for countries from different regions and political traditions that want to build alliances for reforming the UN and its institutions. They met yesterday in New York, on the sidelines of the General Assembly. Their argument is based on a paradox that they substantiate with figures. Global trade is at a historic high and almost three-quarters of humanity has access to the internet. At the same time, 65 armed conflicts between states were recorded in 35 countries in 2025, the highest number since 1946, while global military spending reached a record $2.9 trillion. The economy is becoming more integrated while geopolitics is fragmenting. “Cooperation is not idealism, it is a practical necessity,” they write, citing climate change, artificial intelligence, pandemics, financial stability and supply chains. They acknowledge that criticism of the multilateral system is “partly understandable” and state that the objective is to strengthen the system, not replace it. Markets, however, are reading this text as the first organized attempt by the “middle powers” not to be forced to choose sides. Carney ran two central banks before becoming prime minister and knows that fragmentation comes at a cost in tariffs and risk premiums. Three important elements are missing from the article: a budget, a secretariat and a membership list. For now, P4M has four names and one meeting.