Hello. Before I return to the Rubio visit (because there’s quite a bit to get into), I’m revisiting the new Middle Eastern conflict, namely the war between Anna and Nikos Karvelas. Well, the “creator,” whose difficult and sui generis character is well known to those who know him, said it and essentially did it: he withdrew his participation, in a manner of speaking, from the pool of the music copyright management company that was automatically collecting revenue from the songs Vissi performed. Which, translated into plain English, means that Annoula can’t sing them. And now she will necessarily have to go to court and seek justice. Whether she gets it is another matter; she might, she might not. I don’t know what to tell you. For the time being, some mutual friends who intervened failed to bring them to an agreement. We’ll see how much longer this goes on, because nobody makes any money from Anna’s “voicelessness” and Nikos’s pennilessness (he says so himself). For now, though, Vissi is not going to come out into the public arena to make statements, because she understands that it would do no good. Koustas, meanwhile, who is abroad on business, is also saying, “I’ve already spent far too much time dealing with the man; let’s settle it in court.” Nikos, for his part, is absolutely fuming.

Rubio–Mitsotakis

Rubio was genuinely impressed by everything he saw and experienced during the day and a half he spent in Athens. Above all, by Mitsotakis himself, a non-governmental source (to be precise, a non-Greek source) told me. And that’s despite what Antonis and Tsoutsias say about K.M. having turned New Democracy into “To Potami”—as we’ve said, spite makes you blind. Let’s wait and see how the “Samaras party” fares, because polling began yesterday, and, as if that weren’t enough, Kasidiaris will now also be measured indirectly (more on that below). Rubio very much wanted the photo opportunity at the Pnyx, and he also wants to make contact with the Greek-American lobby, because he has probably fallen behind in that area. In general, when it comes to fundraising ahead of the presidential race, he is further behind Vance, but the establishment Republicans clearly prefer him to Vance, who, of course, is much closer to Trump’s style. As far as I can tell, though, behind closed doors Rubio was fairly explicit about what the United States might do on the critical issues in our region, as well as on matters affecting us, particularly in the area of defense procurement. And keep in mind that the relationship will be maintained, since Athens is keeping an eye on his presidential ambitions. Let’s see what happens with Vice President Vance, too, if he decides to actually take a trip to our neck of the woods in the first quarter of 2027, as rumors suggest. Vance, for his part, lavished praise on Rubio for his speech, although it looks as though the two will be rivals in the contest for the Republican nomination ahead of 2028.

Theodora of Pella and the…inevitable blow to PASOK

They’re saying “Tzakri” and…weeping at PASOK, as the MP for Pella can no longer wait in the waiting room and is beginning to knock louder and louder on the door. Which door? After leaving SYRIZA, she knocked on another door and joined Kasselakis’s party. She aligned herself with Stefanos’s project for a not-insignificant period, taking on the vice-presidency, and when she saw that the boat was beginning to empty of loyal followers, she jumped ship to join the ranks of independent MPs. And now? Theodora Tzakri is knocking on PASOK’s door once again, in a way she herself considers inevitable! Apparently, she is paying no attention to the internal party opposition, nor to the fact that party leader Nikos has begun to have second thoughts about bringing her back. So Theodora of Pella has set aside her pride and gone public to say that “returning to my natural home is dictated to me as an inevitability”! She reminded everyone that she did not leave PASOK over the bailout memorandum—after all, she voted for all three of them! And she has begun paying compliments to party leader Nikos (speaking to Mega News): “We are dealing with a new PASOK. If PASOK decides that there is room for me in its effort, we can come to an agreement.” She wants to return, but can PASOK swallow whole everything she has said against it and gamble with its bid to attract centrist voters? As everyone knows, PASOK’s wager is much bigger—and existential—than securing a parliamentary seat in Pella. And centrist voters certainly do not… yearn for the parade of political figures through SYRIZA/ANEL, the front-row treatment at Kasselakis’s political nightclub, and the return to their… natural home. Come on, my dear Nikos, don’t dawdle. You took in the admiral, after all, and you’re courting Michelogiannakis. You can easily bring back Annita’s Paratragouda [a television show featuring eccentric singers and performers].

Effie heads toward New Left

Meanwhile, Effie Achtsioglou, who also hails from Pella, appears to have made up her mind as well. The former minister under Alexis Tsipras made her first appearance at a New Left event the day before yesterday, in Ilion. It is her constituency, since she was elected MP there, in Western Athens, in 2023. She left SYRIZA under Kasselakis, played a leading role in founding New Left, and left in the summer, even surrendering her parliamentary seat to SYRIZA—a move that Koumoundourou [SYRIZA’s headquarters] is “demanding” that all those who have left for Tsipras’s camp do soon. It is probably only a matter of days before Effie Achtsioglou crosses the threshold of the new party, initially as an ordinary member. And then we’ll see? What various New Left figures consider certain is that she wants to run again in Western Athens, rather than in another, more northerly electoral constituency.

Pollsters and the Kasidiaris party

The October polling cycle began yesterday (the first survey will be Opinion Poll’s for Action24, presumably on Wednesday), and one question pollsters had to settle was how to record the Kasidiaris party—or, more accurately, the “Alliance of Greeks” party, founded by three former Spartans MPs and openly supported by Kasidiaris. They therefore agreed that if spontaneous responses naming “Alliance of Greeks” or “Kasidiaris” exceed 1%, they will include a separate line for the party in their surveys. Otherwise, those preferences will be assigned to “Other Party.” As one would expect, the possible appearance of the Alliance of Greeks in the polls will also mean the Spartans disappearing from the measurements.

From Tsipras to Mitsotakis

A few days ago, Mitsotakis visited the Monastery of Saint Dionysios of Olympus. Yesterday, he began his tour of Halkidiki at the women’s monastery of Ormylia, where he was welcomed by Elder Elisaios, the abbot of Simonopetra. If the name sounds familiar, that is because Mr. Elisaios was the man who welcomed party leader Alexis at Simonopetra Monastery just a few days ago and showed him around the historic monastery. The Monastery of Ormylia falls under the jurisdiction of Simonopetra, and after the tour Mitsotakis and his entourage went to the Synodikon for the customary refreshments. Bear in mind, however, that the government has allocated money to support numerous monasteries and monastic communities in many prefectures of Northern Greece.

The quiet change at ELKAK

The visit by Rubio may have overshadowed it, but the Pentagon has changed the leadership of ELKAK, the Hellenic Centre for Defence Innovation. The experienced technology executive and former minister Pantelis Tzortzakis has departed. He had completed three years in the post, although there had also been friction. Gregoris Dimitriadis, former CEO of SKAI and former head of the Hellenic Corporation of Assets and Participations (HCAP) and Enterprise Greece, has also stepped down as vice-chairman. Stelios Kavadias, a professor at the University of Cambridge, is taking over as chairman of the board in a non-executive capacity, while Dr. Konstantinos Ladas, a senior researcher at the University of Cambridge, is assuming the role of CEO and executive board member. Panagiotis Stampoulidis, deputy CEO of HCAP, which holds a 33% stake in ELKAK, has also been appointed vice-chairman.

The Hatzidakis–Söder meeting

Yesterday in Munich, Deputy Prime Minister Kostis Hatzidakis cultivated a relationship that could bear fruit over the longer term. He was the keynote speaker at the ceremony in which the Metropolitanate of Germany decorated Bavarian Prime Minister Markus Söder, a choice with political significance of its own. Söder is one of the figures with the stature to assume even more prominent roles on the German political stage, and he is in the running to become the Christian Democrats’ candidate for chancellor, alongside Hendrik Wüst, the premier of North Rhine-Westphalia. Hatzidakis addressed him as “dear Markus,” highlighted their shared positions on Europe and the defense of traditions, and joined him for the signing of scientific cooperation agreements. His schedule also included a meeting with the president of the Bavarian state parliament, Ilse Aigner.

PPC Fiber: Accelerating fiber-optic rollout—the Vodafone deal

PPC continues to build its position in the telecommunications market at a rapid pace, with the fiber-optic network of its subsidiary FiberGrid now reaching 2.3 million households and businesses (homes passed), of which more than 1.5 million across 70 areas are already ready for immediate connection (ready for service). The next milestone is 2 million premises ready for connection by the end of 2026, with the overall coverage target set at 3.8 million by 2028. The speed of the network rollout, combined with connection speeds of up to 2.5 Gbps, shows that PPC does not regard telecommunications as a supplementary activity, but as a new strategic pillar of growth. These figures must also take into account PPC’s agreement with Vodafone, since the latter, through Fiber2All, has reached more than 620,000 households and businesses. PPC and Vodafone have agreed to combine their fiber-optic networks, with the aim of creating a jointly owned 50–50 venture that will operate in the wholesale FTTH market. According to information, the plan is progressing smoothly and provides for completion of due diligence and the signing of a definitive agreement by the end of 2026, followed by completion of the transaction during 2027, subject to the necessary approvals.

The road to Greece’s return to “A”

– In a recent analysis, Citi points out that we are in the midst of a busy period of assessments for Greece, which has already got off to a positive start. Over the coming weeks, attention will turn to S&P (October 23) and Fitch (November 6), with room for further upgrades to the outlooks. However, the rating agency does not expect credit rating upgrades before 2027. Greece is entering an election year, and the outcome will indicate whether public support for fiscal prudence and structural reforms is being maintained. If this commitment is renewed over the medium term, Citi estimates that the country could return to the “A” category by 2030, regaining the credit standing it held before the crisis. Nevertheless, despite the broader turmoil, Greek government bonds are finding support in the favorable structure of public debt, which has acted as a buffer during recent periods of rising yields.

CrediaBank’s new chapter begins with Malta

CrediaBank is leaving its restructuring period behind and moving on to the next chapter: growth. Fitch’s first rating of the bank, at BB with a positive outlook, reflects precisely this transition. The bank has made significant progress, has a cleaner balance sheet, a stronger capital base, and a business plan built around expanding its operations and capitalizing on the new opportunities created by acquisitions. The most interesting element, however, lies in the deposit rating, which stands at BB+, just one notch below investment grade. In other words, CrediaBank is quite close to a threshold that seemed a long way off only a few years ago. The transaction for HSBC Malta could significantly increase the group’s scale, strengthen its deposits and liquidity, and add geographical diversification. Fitch, however, is setting the bar high: successful integration, a CET1 ratio of at least 14%, stable asset quality, and sustainable profitability.

Ferry shipping and the industry’s high concentration

The tourist season on the islands has ended, so the issue is not immediately relevant, but we will certainly be facing it again in a few months. Following an investigation into the ferry-shipping sector that lasted a year and a half, the Competition Commission found a high level of market concentration, significant barriers to entry for new players, pronounced seasonality, and substantial needs for fleet renewal and technological upgrading. The situation described by the Competition Commission, combined with the possibility that oil prices will continue their upward flight—which will provide the excuse—will turn ticket prices into a nightmare for passengers.

Alphabet Education’s flirtation with a Chinese university

Alphabet Education now appears to be looking eastward, opening a window onto major Asian universities as well. And this is happening at a time when Keele’s venture in Greece continues to face the consequences of decisions by the Council of State, with its operating license having indeed been reissued, but the process of reaccrediting its degree programs still underway. Against this backdrop, then, Tsinghua, one of China’s leading universities and the institution where Xi Jinping studied, was at 33 Ippokratous Street a few days ago. The Chinese university’s Belt and Road Executive MBA program was hosted at Keele’s facilities for four days. The program has attracted dozens of business leaders and founders from Asian markets. Nikos Stathopoulos, who was honored by Dean Jiao Jie, spoke of a “bridge between East and West” and “fertile fields of cooperation” with Tsinghua. We should keep that last point in mind. After all, at a time when domestic discussions about university partnerships revolve mainly around the United States and Europe, the compass at Ippokratous Street appears to be pointing toward Asia as well. And, as I hear it, this may not simply be a fleeting acquaintance…

The oil rally brings refineries close to their peaks

Shares in Greek refineries moved higher during yesterday’s “bloody” Athens Stock Exchange session, capitalizing on the latest rally in international oil prices and adding to their already impressive stock-market performance this year. Motor Oil returned to above €68, closing at €68.10, with cumulative gains of 3.1% over the past two trading days. The stock once again approached its all-time high of €69.95, recorded on September 17, having risen 116.8% since the beginning of the year. HELLENiQ ENERGY, meanwhile, gained 2.4% over the two-day period, finishing the session at €18.25 and approaching its year-to-date high of €18.63. Its gains for the year have reached 118.3%. Motor Oil’s market capitalization stands at €7.54 billion, while HELLENiQ ENERGY’s is €5.57 billion.

Heavy selling at the ports

Shares in the ports of Piraeus and Thessaloniki were at the center of yesterday’s sell-off, recording the largest losses among mid-cap stocks, with declines of more than 6%. Piraeus Port Authority (OLP) fell 6.75% to €42.80, moving further away from its recent record of €49. This was, in fact, its worst daily performance in the past two years, specifically since April 2, 2024, when it recorded losses of 7.12%. Thessaloniki Port Authority (OLTH) also underwent a sharp correction, losing 6.3% to close at €38.70, just one day after reaching an all-time high of €41.30. The decline was its largest in six years, since March 23, 2020 (-7.45%). The intensity of the selling signals a sharp reversal in the upward momentum of both stocks. OLP’s market capitalization stands at €1.07 billion, while OLTH’s is €390 million.

The great killer in shipping

Amid the euphoria surrounding historically high freight rates, Haris Vafeias also issued a warning at Capital Link that would be wise to remember when the next phase arrives: “Debt in bad times is the great killer.” The timing of his observation matters. Freight rates are at exceptionally high levels, second-hand vessel values have soared, and Greek shipowners continue to sign newbuilding orders. Vafeias, however, is already looking toward the next turn in the cycle. His reasoning is that as long as wars and geopolitical distortions keep markets elevated, everything appears manageable. But if conflicts de-escalate and freight rates correct sharply, it will become clear who bought at high prices, who took on excessive debt, and who has enough diversification to withstand the downturn. Because in shipping, the real tests, as was also said on the same panel, do not come in strong markets. They come when the cycle turns.

Livanos’s fog

At DryLog’s offices in London, they have seen the dry-bulk market rise, fall, and turn around again many times. That is why, when a signal of heightened uncertainty comes from Peter Livanos’s side, some people in the market take note. DryLog Trading closed 2025 with a loss of $7 million, compared with just $431,000 in 2024, while revenue fell from $273 million to $244 million. Dividends? Not a penny. The real interest, however, lies elsewhere. The company made no attempt to sugarcoat the picture: geopolitical uncertainty, American threats of additional charges on Chinese-built vessels, and an orderbook equivalent to approximately 11% of the Supramax and Ultramax fleet. In short, nobody is willing to bet easily on the market’s next move. And here is the detail that matters. DryLog Trading manages more than 30 chartered vessels on a daily basis, around 250 voyages a year, and 12 million tons of cargo. So when a significant trading house with such a clear view of the market loses $7 million, the message to everyone else is quite clear—and rather worrying.

“Blood in the streets” and Pappas

An interesting disagreement was recorded at Capital Link between Petros Pappas and Haris Vafeias over one of the biggest “secrets” behind the success of Greek shipowners: the famous countercyclical instinct. Pappas described it in a phrase that is hard to overlook: “We Greeks buy when there is blood in the streets.” In other words, when others are afraid, Greeks have traditionally found the biggest opportunities. Vafeias, however, had an objection. He questioned whether that is exactly what we are doing today. His observation was that in recent years Greeks have been buying second-hand vessels and ordering newbuilds at particularly high prices—that is, very close to the top of the cycle, rather than when “there is blood in the streets.” And that is where the interesting point lies: two different generations and two different interpretations of the same Greek formula for success. One reminds us of what historically made Greek shipowners strong, while the other questions whether they are still actually following that formula today.

The bacteria have given the green light. Now the investors must, too…

Greek biotechnology acquired its own “ticket” this week in the fight against Alzheimer’s disease. It is called RSQ-020, targets the Tau protein, and emerged from a collaboration between the Alexander Fleming Biomedical Sciences Research Center, the National Hellenic Research Foundation, and ResQ Biotech, a Greek spin-off company of the National Hellenic Research Foundation, founded in 2019 at the Patras Science Park and headed by Dr. Giorgos Skretas. The method is half the story. Modified bacteria—“laboratories”—produce billions of candidate molecules and emit a green signal when one of them “corrects” the malfunctioning protein. In animal models, RSQ-020 restored lost learning and memory abilities and demonstrated activity against Tau obtained from the brains of patients. The other half of the story, however, is money. The company is not mincing its words. “We are still at an early stage, and several more studies are needed before we know whether the molecule can become a safe and effective drug.” According to information available to this column, preclinical studies will take approximately two and a half years. That is, provided the funding round ResQ is already running moves forward. To date, investments have come from Blue Dome Capital (2022) and Lars Rasmussen, co-founder of Google Maps (2023), while in 2024 the company received a Proof of Concept grant from the European Research Council. It is a very difficult playing field. In July, Biogen presented a Phase 2 study involving 416 patients for its own anti-Tau molecule, diranersen. It succeeded in reducing Tau, but missed its primary endpoint and now needs a larger Phase 3 trial. While a giant corporation measures progress in years and hundreds of patients, a Greek spin-off is fighting for its own ticket with bacteria and determination.

Are we 6–12 months away from a potential financial crisis?

Giorgos Kofinakos, whose professional career has included Citibank and StormHarbour and who is now a senior advisor at Alvarez & Marsal in London and chairman of the Hellenic Innovation and Infrastructure Fund, examines the proposition that the United States is 6–12 months away from a potential financial crisis in a one-page analysis titled “2007 vs. 2026.” His conclusion is that 2026 does not resemble 2007, when the system literally collapsed. Today, American households devote 11.11% of their disposable income to servicing their debts (second quarter of 2026), compared with 15.85% at the end of 2007. For mortgages, the figures are 5.83%, compared with 8.95%. Banks have capital levels close to historic highs. There are, however, risks, and they come from four different directions: public debt, leveraged hedge funds, private credit (already exceeding $2.5 trillion as far back as 2024, but not yet tested in a deep recession with high interest rates), and equity valuations. Hedge funds’ exposure to US debt has more than doubled as a share of GDP since 2022, with short-term repo financing. The analysis describes a chain reaction of shocks: deleveraging by funds in Treasuries, losses in private credit, a liquidity shortage, and a broad repricing of assets. In 2008, the sequence was mortgages, securitizations, and banks. Today, the sequence is different, but equally dangerous. Hedge funds hold a record 7% of marketable Treasuries, worth approximately $2 trillion. In 2008, the fire started with homes. Today, the combustible material is sitting in the safest security in the world.

The…coat-stand “monks” of RAAEY

Among the thousands of procurement orders issued by public-sector agencies every day, there are some that attract attention. One of them concerns a recent decision by the Regulatory Authority for Waste, Energy and Water—formerly RAE, which became RAAEY after its remit was expanded—to procure 25… “monks.” Of course, these are the familiar coat stands as they are being called in Greece, not monks like those on Mount Athos, which our own Alexis also visited a few days ago… The relevant decision by RAAEY’s administration refers to “approval for expenditure relating to the procurement of twenty-five (25) freestanding furniture items—coat stands.” It was adopted following a request from the Office of Technical and Administrative Support. The planned expenditure for the purchase of the 25 coat stands is €2,018.75, plus 24% VAT (€484.50), bringing the total to €2,503.25. That works out to around €100 apiece. Well, at least they won’t run out of “monks” over there on Piraeus Street…

Who will put the brakes on—and how?

Yesterday, in dealing rooms across the Old Continent, people were discussing just one subject: who will stop the rise in French bond yields, and how? The yield on France’s 10-year government bond returned to 4.90% yesterday, after touching 5% on October 1 for the first time since 2002. The spread over the German Bund stands at around 140 basis points. On October 2, it reached a peak—or perhaps a new peak—of 150 basis points, its highest level since 2011. Paris is borrowing at a higher cost than Rome (4.62%) and, naturally, Athens (4.52%). French bond yields will continue to rise until buyers emerge or the government is forced into strict fiscal adjustment. We are a long way from that scenario, especially with elections approaching. The US 10-year Treasury yield is following the same trend, standing at 5.286%, its highest level since 2002. The $39 billion auction came at the highest yield since November 2000. As long as Washington is paying rates like these, the bar rises for everyone. France, with a deficit of 5.4% of GDP this year, is planning record borrowing of €340 billion in 2027, a presidential election year. There is another possible scenario: putting a brake on yields through a “political decision.” The “right” tool for this would be the ECB’s TPI, the Transmission Protection Instrument. The TPI, however, remains locked away because it requires compliance with fiscal rules, and France is already subject to an excessive deficit procedure. The governor of the Bank of France, Emmanuel Moulin, says the country does not need emergency support. The market is boiling over. ING is proposing a halt to quantitative tightening and the reinvestment of funds in French securities. Philip Lane has hinted at a milder interest-rate path. With oil back above $100, the bill will be paid by the credibility of Frankfurt and the euro, which is already at a 17-month low. Greece is borrowing more cheaply than France, but not cheaply, as its spread remains above 100 basis points.

Feverish demand for data-center protection systems

In the early hours of yesterday morning, several drones struck Yandex’s largest data center, in Sasovo, in Russia’s Ryazan region. Fire, panic, a complete shutdown, and the stock down 3.4% in Moscow. It was the first confirmed strike on a Russian data center. Earlier, during September, Russian attacks had hit at least eight Ukrainian data centers, leaving approximately 100,000 households in Kyiv and the surrounding areas without internet access. In the United States, the threat is not missiles, but the bill is already mounting. According to Barron’s, Galaxy Digital will spend an eight-figure sum annually on security for its campus in Dickens County, Texas, where CoreWeave will pay more than $1 billion a year in rent. Applied Digital estimates annual costs of $6–10 million for each standard two-building facility. Security systems are sophisticated and include drones, complex facial-recognition procedures, and security personnel with military-veteran and former police backgrounds. Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft, Oracle, and Amazon have made commitments to leases and purchases totaling more than $2.7 trillion—equivalent to approximately three years of operating cash flow, according to Morgan Stanley. Cleanview records 1,318 data centers in operation in the United States and 2,299 in the planning stage. The problem is that 69% of Americans do not want a data center in their neighborhood. Security contractors have smelled an opportunity. Motorola Solutions agreed in June to acquire D-Fend, a specialist in drone neutralization, for $1.5 billion. Axon is responding with Dedrone. In Kozani, PPC is planning a 300 MW data center, an investment of approximately €3.5 billion, with the potential to expand to 1 GW. The companies that could secure it are already gearing up. In the Wild West, during the gold rush, the winners were those selling shovels. In the artificial-intelligence gold rush, today’s winners are those supplying sophisticated security systems and complex locks.