German predictive model forecasts coronavirus cases in Greece over the next days (graph)

The German Robert Koch Institute has published a predictive model over a 6-day period for the course of the coronavirus epidemic based on data it has included in its analysis for each country.

According to the model, which has a slight delay in the integration of real data, Greece is projected to experience a mild increase in cases, reaching 787 tomorrow Wednesday 25/3, 848 cases on Thursday 26/3, 913 on Friday 27 / 3, 947 on Saturday 28/3, and Sunday 29/3, 705 confirmed cases.

This is a six-day forecast on how COVID-19 outbreaks will evolve is based on an innovative epidemiological model that incorporates the impact of the populations’ behavioural changes to measures taken by governments to restrict movement through self-quarantine.

According to experts at the Robert Koch Institute, conventional epidemiological models fail to capture the impact of such measures on limiting the spread of the epidemic.

Without measures, experts predict that we would see an exponential increase in the number of confirmed cases. However, the graph below shows that this is not the case in Greece as well as in other countries.

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