According to data released in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook in Washington on Tuesday, Greece will see a 4.1% growth rate in 2021, following a 9.5% recession in 2020.
The report says that after the initial “shock” from the coronavirus, Greece will be one of the few countries that will stop borrowing, while almost all other countries will continue to go into debts and spend in an effort to consolidate their economies.
The data predicts a 9.5% recession in Greece for 2020 (instead of the 10% forecast by the Fund six months ago) and double-digit percentages for Spain (-12.8%), Italy (-10.6%), and Portugal (-10%).
The forecasts for 2021 are quite bleak, as the IMF scenario essentially projects nothing positive before the summer of 2021: the global recession will continue in the second quarter, affecting the Greek summer, while there is concern about when the funds will come from the EU.
The IMF does not only raise concerns about whether the money for financial aid for the EU recovery will be disbursed, but also whether the sum will be efficiently managed. After 2022 and until 2025, the IMF forecasts growth of only 1%, ie it believes that the money will have run out if it is not complemented with changes in the Greek economy.
In terms of the unemployment rate in Greece, the IMF forecasts it will record a drop from 19.9 in 2020 to 18.3 in 2021.