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> Politics

Referendum quandary: Is it better the devil you know?

What are the stakes? How to choose between the hell you know and the hell you can only imagine

Newsroom July 2 05:21

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What are the advantages and disadvantages of a ‘Yes’ or ‘No’ vote in a question that few people seem to fully understand.

YES

What Greece has to lose: Negatives of voting Yes

– You’ll be damned if you do as it will mean a return to the negotiating table with even harsher austerity measures than the ones already proposed.

– Debt will keep spiraling upwards (indefinitely), and will be offset with an endless spiral of constantly harsher austerity measures (indefinitely).

– The government will need to lower wages, slash pension, raise retirement age, impose education cuts,  etc. as a humanitarian crisis continues to unfold.

– Likelihood of a new round of elections as the Radical Left Coalition (SYRIZA) government’s policies are proven futile, hence even more political turbulence and a worsening situation.

– Expect the brain drain that has already caused problems as a result of the memorandum to increase as wages get lower and young people seek a better future elsewhere.

What Greece has to gain: Positives of voting Yes

– Greeks will get bailout funds to pay interest rates on previous bailout funds and so forth.

– Greece will have good relations with its EU creditors by doing everything required to pay for interest rates on bailout funds.

– Hope that things will get better as Greece does what it is told.

NO

What Greece has to lose: Negatives of No

– An unprecedented no brings uncertainty as nobody knows the full repercussions that may ensue as Greece’s creditors lash out at Greece

– Risk of euro exit (though lawyers say that this is legally next to impossible)

– Supply shortages as imports may stop (eg. medicine, etc.)

– Increased likelihood of bankruptcy as the pressure on Greece is amped making life suddenly harder rather than slowly harder that crushing austerity gradually imposed by a Yes result would bring.

What Greece has to gain: Positives of No

– An end to an economic policy that has obviously failed. After all, austerity under recession makes no sense, just making the situation worse.

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– Better negotiating power and pressure on the EU to accept a deal with easier payment terms.

– Greece as a country would preserve its sovereignty and its right to table its own reforms.

– Hope of more humane, worker-friendly policies and an egalitarian EU that recognizes the rights of less wealthy states.

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