A year after Hamas attacked Israel, which led to a year-long military campaign to dismantle Gaza and neutralize the terrorist organization, the Middle East is now on the brink of a dangerous conflict. This confrontation could involve external powers, leading to global economic upheaval.

Although none of the key players seem to desire a full-scale war, the ongoing violation of red lines by both Israel and Iran could eventually become a self-fulfilling prophecy. The key question is how far Netanyahu and Israel are willing to go to ensure what they perceive as long-term security and how much Iran can back down as its network of proxies across the Middle East, which encircles Israel, faces destruction.

Israel’s response to the ballistic missile attack from Iran will determine not just the tactical but also the strategic course of the future in the Middle East.

Decisiveness

Israel has shown its determination to pursue this confrontation to the end, evidenced by attacks in Tehran (e.g., the assassination of Hassan Nasrallah) and its dismantling of Hezbollah. Israel has demonstrated that it can not only handle multiple fronts but also infiltrate Hezbollah’s network and Iran’s security apparatus.

On the other hand, Iran has opted for measured responses to avoid justifying a large-scale strategic strike against it. However, in such conflicts, power dynamics and timing often dictate the rules.

Israel, despite President Biden’s opposition to a strike on Iran’s nuclear program, has been charting its course, ignoring warnings from the U.S., which is eventually forced to reaffirm its unwavering commitment to Israel’s security.

For two decades, Iran’s nuclear program has been Israel’s strategic target, and Israel now seems capable of delivering a decisive blow to halt Iran’s ambitions to become the region’s second nuclear power.

Strategic Targets

In addition to Iran’s nuclear program, Israel could target key infrastructure such as electricity, water, and transportation, which would fuel domestic unrest in Iran and weaken the regime’s image of deterrence.

Strikes on Iran’s oil industry could also devastate its economy. However, there is a significant risk of retaliation against Saudi Arabia’s oil fields, triggering a global crisis. In the past, Iranian-backed Houthis attacked ARAMCO facilities in Saudi Arabia, prompting Riyadh to seek negotiations with Tehran.

The Arab Perspective

The Arab world is watching this conflict closely. While the Gulf countries, with the possible exception of Qatar, have long faced the consequences of Iran’s regional ambitions, they would welcome a weakening or even the fall of the Iranian regime.

The Gulf nations, which are undergoing reforms and modernization, know that only in a stable environment—and with normalized relations with Israel—can they pursue their ambitious projects to become global hubs of clean energy, trade, and data.

Iran recently attempted to ease concerns during a meeting with Gulf states, trying to prevent them from tacitly supporting a potential large-scale Israeli strike against Tehran.

The U.S. Elections

In Washington, with the U.S. presidential elections approaching, there is little desire for a widespread escalation in the Middle East. However, if Israel takes independent action against Iran’s nuclear program, U.S. involvement would be necessary to counter any threats to Israel, potentially leading to retaliatory actions.

The involvement of the U.S. could also become a political issue, with former President Donald Trump likely to use any escalation to criticize the Biden administration’s handling of foreign policy.

U.S. Military Presence

In a show of military strength, the U.S. has bolstered its forces in the Middle East, sending a clear message of support to Israel. Currently, between 43,000 and 50,000 U.S. personnel are deployed across the region. American warships are stationed from the Eastern Mediterranean to the Gulf of Oman, and air forces are strategically positioned to respond to any escalation.

The USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier, scheduled to return to its base in mid-October, has been ordered to remain in the region, while the USS Harry S. Truman and additional U.S. naval forces are on their way to the Eastern Mediterranean. In addition, nuclear submarines and U.S. fighter jets are stationed across various Middle Eastern bases, ready to respond to potential threats.

The U.S. Air Force presence includes F-22s, F-15Es, and A-10 Thunderbolt IIs, among others. These military assets ensure that the U.S. is prepared to support Israel in the event of further escalation.