Syria is experiencing one of the greatest changes in its modern history. Bassar Al Assad is a thing of the past in the country and probably hasn’t yet gotten used to the rhythms and cold temperatures of Russia… Amid a climate of fragile balances and major changes in the Middle East, the rivalry (no quotes) between Joe Biden and Benjamin Netanyahu continues.

The outgoing US President said 24 hours after the fall of Assad that the US and his administration’s steady policy had put both Iran and Hezbollah in Lebanon, as well as Moscow, in an extremely difficult position. Through this strategy, Joe Biden argued, none of the regime’s allies had the means or the inclination to keep Assad in power, as happened in 2011 with Russian fighter jets sweeping the rebels.

On the opposite side, in a similar speech, Benjamin Netanyahu argued that it was Israel’s war against Hezbollah, Hamas but Tehran that led Assad into exile and Syria into a new era. Netanyahu even did not leave aside what has happened over the past two years with Joe Biden and in a clear cutting point emphasized that “if Israel had succumbed to the pressures that some have exerted for an early end to the war none of this would have happened.” Israel believes that the attack on Hezbollah and the death of Nasrallah destroyed not just pieces but the basis of what Tel Aviv sees as the “axis of evil”. The operations by Israeli forces both in the Golan Heights and against Syrian army bases give a “bonus” to what the Israeli Prime Minister says.

It is clear that today it does not matter much who was behind the moves that led to the overthrow of the Assad regime, but in a few months it is precisely these circumstances that will determine who will have greater foothold and influence in the region. Israel clearly has Tehran in its sights and Benjamin Netanyahu has given an end date to the ceasefire with Lebanon. The goal is the fall of Tehran’s theocracy as well as the greatest possible influence in the entire zone. If after Assad the greatest enemy of all is dismantled then no one will dare to challenge Israel’s absolute sovereignty in the region on the one hand and in the second year it will take decades before anyone will ever again attempt to threaten the country the way Hamas threatened and attacked it on the “Black Sabbath”.

The “fallout” of the given Netanyahu-Biden confrontation will be picked up in a short time by Donald Trump who after Assad’s fall posted a message on his own social media calling for a “U.S. withdrawal from Syria” which he himself will hardly be able to do if he doesn’t want Russia to be re-engaged in the region. The developments in Syria give an “unexpected” leverage card in his hands for the war in Ukraine as well, as if Russia is pressed for what it is losing from the Middle East there may be a retreat on what it is demanding from Kiev.

From this context, Ankara looks distanced but by no means defeated. Turkey will once again have a say and probably gains from a war fought outside its own territory. If Erdogan is pressured to return some of the Syrian territory occupied to the south of his country, he will demand that there be no talk of a Kurdish state and may end up with more than he bargained for.