History, unfortunately, is not written by wishes but by the deeds of men, and the facts of the year that is passing have created the conditions for another – fourth in a row war year.

Wishes are nice – within the bounds of tradition – but perhaps never in history have wishful thinking ever produced anything beyond false hope. 2024 was given to be the most warlike year of the 21st century with two fronts – Ukraine and Israel in Gaza – three of which came with the strikes against Hezbollah and Lebanon and four just before the “last” of the year and the fall of the Assad regime.

Analysts, military – diplomatic and political – taking a breath themselves from the year’s thick and tumultuous events agree that the planet may never have seen such intense warfare together ever before and stress that the six years of World War II on European soil were brutal but the camps were specific and the goal clear. Today neither exists, which may give a hint of what will follow in 2025.

With what exists today as facts and sterilized by what we all wish for, the war will continue to rage on Ukrainian soil. Conflict as a given will continue to exist – however much the interim government tries to downplay it – on Syrian territory, and there is no “light” ceasefire in Gaza either, with Israel still hitting the region and, surprisingly, Hamas still attacking almost 500 days later. The Houthis in Yemen will not stop firing missiles into Tel Aviv and the US-led coalition fighters in the region will not stop bombing western Yemen.

Indeed, it is neither extreme nor far-fetched to imagine the scenario of the war fronts existing in a relative encirclement multiplying rather than simply increasing. If Israel gets US guarantees of action against Tehran from the new Trump Administration, we might early in the new year see images we have from the 90s and the Gulf War. But Israel will insist on a different next day in Syria and with Trump in the White House it is not unlikely that the scenario of the IDF and Turkish army coming face to face on Syrian soil is not unlikely. Especially in the North and the Eastern provinces of Syria, the facts clearly show that there will be no disarmament of either the Kurdish forces or the Turkish-backed jihadists. With so many weapons, the truth is that you can’t make peace and the only way is the one that has already been laid out – war.

To “risk” predictions about developments in the fields is dangerous but then again in one of the blackest accounts of the last 24 years – why not take a chance…

2025 will be a year when, by all indications, Russia and in a second year France and Germany will remain in trouble. The loss of Syria has turned the tables on Moscow on several levels and Donald Trump has now made it clear that he will not stop supporting Ukraine – realizing from the existing numbers (which he takes for granted and understands extremely well) that with such an opening the American economy and the war industry the in poker terms “fold” is almost suicidal…

The February election in Germany is expected to have a winner other than Olaf Scholz. The far-right will be so strong for the first time since 1932 but the post-war constitutional arrangements in the country’s data leave no room for Nazi diatribes. Until a government is formed in the country it is the defeated Soltz who will be “running things” and this seems to give some meaning to the Greek saying about “the flurry and the hail“. The other pillar of Europe France will continue to wobble with President Macron insisting on his ways and times and Marin Le Pen pushing in every way possible to find more and more social and not only support… The 2027 Presidential election seems and looks far away but no one in today’s world can discount stability…

2025 looks blacker and more dangerous than 2024 and certainly than 2023 and perhaps it’s not another celebratory “exaggeration” to wish “may we not wake up tomorrow in 1939”.