Hello, good Lent. Yesterday, while discussing political developments, a friend of mine reminded me of what the late British Prime Minister Harold Wilson once said: “A week is a long time in politics.” In our case, with the Tempi incident, it may have taken a little more than a week—not much more—but today the political landscape is at its most critical point since 2019. Mitsotakis is called upon to react calmly and, above all, correctly in two directions in order to defuse the crisis stemming from the Tempi case, which could even cost us the government. First, he must take drastic and radical action—both in terms of impression and substance—regarding the railways. Second, he must do something similar when it comes to the administration of justice. This way, he will convince, at least in part, not only the public—the society, that is—that he has received the message and will now make the necessary changes himself, but he will also ease the concerns within his own party, his parliamentary group, which has begun to sense the great instability and is worried, murmuring, and fearing for its own future positions.

Suggestions for closure

Throughout the three-day weekend, the Prime Minister held continuous consultations at Maximos Mansion with his team as well as with four or five current and former ministers. He is receiving various proposals on how to respond and what to do with the railways. Some suggest an immediate shutdown of OSE and assigning it to foreign entities (Japanese, European, expert consultants) for reorganization, making it clear that this would be done to avoid further delays—and not for safety reasons—as much as this can be made credible. Others believe a more cautious approach is needed, keeping freight trains operational for obvious reasons. A bolder advisor suggested raising the issue of dismissing high-ranking public sector officials if it can be done constitutionally. I do not know what he will ultimately decide, but whatever it is, he logically needs to finalize it by tomorrow—Friday at the latest—since parliamentary proceedings will be underway in the House. He will be speaking there tomorrow about the Preliminary Inquiry, and logically, any major and striking announcements regarding the railways and OSE should be made then.

People – Minister?

Ideally, he would find one or more individuals to symbolize this fresh start and the effort to reboot the Ministry of Transport, as well as the broader reshuffle. Meetings and soundings are taking place with current and former ministers, but so far, the “kamikaze” has not been found. Because, given the current situation with the railways, and without a legal framework plan—something akin to the 2004 Olympic Games or the pandemic, where the responsible minister had extraordinary powers to shut down organizations, abolish services, and even dismiss employees—only someone with nothing to lose would take on this “executioner’s block.” As far as I know, however, they are still searching for a suitable person…

Preliminary Inquiry or regular courts?

The other major issue K.M. has to deal with is the public’s sense of justice regarding Tempi. Who today believes that, after an Investigative Committee, yet another Preliminary Inquiry Committee will resolve the issue in the public’s conscience? How certain are they at Maximos Mansion that ND’s MPs will vote in a secret ballot to acquit Triantopoulos or Karamanlis or any other politicians referred to by the investigator? From the little reporting I have done, I can tell you that it is almost certain ND will face some defections among its MPs, and with hundreds of thousands of people protesting outside in Athens, it is not a given that an acquittal proposal will pass. Not to mention that there will be an outcry about a cover-up, even if it is unjustified.

Proposal by Alivizatos

For this reason, a serious proposal has been put on the table, publicly expressed by Professor Alivizatos: All parties should agree, during the initial formal sessions of the Preliminary Inquiry Committee, to refer any political figures sent to Parliament by the investigator directly to the Five-Member Judicial Council. In other words, to regular judges of the highest level. If they decide on a Special Court, then the politicians will be tried. If not, the matter is closed. This way, the countless witnesses in live television trials of the Preliminary Inquiry, starring the likes of… Zoe and others, will also be avoided.

Poll – Zoe in second place…

Speaking of Zoitsa, I remembered that a highly reliable polling source of mine, currently conducting surveys, tells me that the trend in the polls is for Konstantopoulou to rise to second place. The main opposition party within a few weeks, if the current climate continues, with a percentage of 12%-14%. So, Harold Wilson knew something…

H. Holterman and those who acquired 32 million Alpha Bank shares

Let’s move on to the market, starting with the issue that made an impression on the stock exchange on Friday, namely the +5.84% surge in Alpha Bank’s stock, sending its price to €1.95 with trades of 32.3 million shares. The large volume of transactions, which coincidentally coincided with some changes in the bank’s board of directors, fueled speculation in the market about share purchases by H. Holterman. To set the record straight, after reporting and multiple cross-checks, this column is in a position to state the following: No purchases by H. Holterman were made in Alpha Bank because he has not yet received the Fit & Proper approval. There is no issue, the process has simply become more bureaucratic, but it is in the final stretch, and according to a source more knowledgeable than anyone, the Fit & Proper is “on the way,” as they put it. Approval has been granted by the Bank of England (Alpha Bank has a subsidiary in the UK), and by the end of February, formal clarifications requested by the SSM were also addressed. So, it is a matter that will be formally settled in the coming days, and Holterman will proceed with increasing his stake in Alpha Bank. Note, by the way, that H. Holterman is also a significant shareholder in ABN AMRO Bank, so to some extent, he already has something like a “European passport.” Consequently, the reasons for the delay are purely bureaucratic, leaving the question of why Alpha Bank’s stock surged so much and who bought 32 million shares. Demand for Alpha’s stock began at the start of the session because the market liked the earnings announcements and the statements from the management. Additionally, the previous evening’s deal with Astro Bank in Cyprus, which added €50 million to profitability, had taken place. The stock purchases were mainly made by UBS and Morgan Stanley on behalf of foreign funds that bought due to the strong earnings and the Cyprus deal, developments that coincided with the MSCI rebalancing. Meanwhile, passive funds were also active in rebalancing their portfolios.

Paulson sold 5.38% of Piraeus Bank in two months

Selling shares, even if one is a strategic investor, is fair, expected, and normal. It is also equally understandable for the seller to keep quiet, as the saying goes, to generate as little noise as possible about their sales, ensuring they sell at higher prices. This is precisely what seems to have happened with Paulson & Co Inc., which—on Friday, just as the long holiday weekend began, at 7 p.m.—announced that as of February 25, it held 170,317,912 shares of Piraeus Bank, thereby lowering its stake to 13.62%. That is, from the 19% Paulson held at the end of December 2024, we learned on February 25, 2025, that it had sold 2.8% of Piraeus and dropped to 14%. Therefore, additional sales of 2.2% of Piraeus Bank had preceded before the 2.8% sale was announced via accelerated book building. Moreover, following the 2.8% sale, an announcement was made stating that Paulson remains a long-term shareholder of the bank, etc. Last Friday afternoon, we learned that the 14% had become 13.62% because an additional 0.38% was sold. Perhaps this explains why, in the last seven stock market sessions, Piraeus Bank’s stock has lost -5.72%, and its market capitalization remains stuck at €5.6 billion. Simply put, Paulson, from 19% on 31.12.24 according to the bank’s official site, sold 5.38% of Piraeus Bank within two months and is now at 13.62% (for the time being—because, as we said, selling shares is not a crime). Should I assume that since 13 is considered unlucky and he is superstitious…?

Moving to the USA and Canada for roadshows

At Piraeus Bank, they do not seem concerned about Paulson’s intentions, so they packed up and are moving this week to the USA and Canada for roadshows aiming to showcase the bank’s strong results (profits of €10.66 million in 2024 and a dividend distribution of €373 million, an amount corresponding to 35% of its profits). At Piraeus Bank, after examining their shareholder structure, they consider the North American market very important. Note that the bank was the only Greek one to participate in HSBC’s conference in Dubai on February 25-27, where it engaged with a different audience of institutional investors.

The re-rating of bank stocks

The best was saved for last with banking stocks, except for Piraeus Bank, which is suffering from Paulson’s sales, which, as mentioned earlier, may continue. After Piraeus Bank published its results on Monday, February 24, and Eurobank on Thursday, February 27, it was the turn of NBG and Alpha Bank to present their financial performances, concluding the cycle of announcements. Both satisfied investors with their profitability growth and distributions to shareholders, leading to new multi-year records. National Bank of Greece is heading towards €9, reaching a nine-year high, closing at a price last seen in November 2015. Similarly, Alpha Bank “touched” €1.95, reaching its highest point in seven years, specifically since July 2018. It has not been at €2 since June of that year. The broader banking index also benefited, reaching 1,500 points for the first time since November 24, 2015.

Banks will buy back 3.5 times more own shares this year

Everyone is taking measures to deal with potential difficult market conditions. One of the measures already announced by our banks is the repurchase of own shares. Management presents buybacks as a way to reward shareholders. At the same time, share buybacks can serve as additional firepower for banks against potential speculative pressures during periods of significant stock market turmoil. This year, banks announced that with their 2024 profits, they will buy back 3.5 times more own shares (€715 million worth) compared to last year’s buybacks (€196 million) with 2023 profits. This increases the internal value of the shares while simultaneously strengthening defensive mechanisms. The fact is that in the April-May period, the general meetings of systemic banks will decide on the distribution of €1.24 billion in cash dividends and €672 million in share buyback programs!

The dividend of the Bank of Greece

This afternoon, the Bank of Greece, listed on the stock exchange, will announce its 2024 results. In a year when Germany’s Federal Bank recorded losses (for the first time since 1979) and when the European Central Bank’s (ECB) losses surged to record levels (€7.9 billion), in Greece, the state budget and public organizations will collect higher revenues this year from the Bank of Greece than last year. This is due to the higher interest paid by our central bank for public sector deposits but primarily to the fact that once again this year, the Bank of Greece will report a profitable year and distribute a dividend. At the same time, reliable sources indicate that this year the management will announce an increase in capital and reserves, which are necessary in a period of heightened global uncertainty. Analysts estimate that the dividend to be approved by the Bank of Greece’s General Meeting of shareholders on April 8 will be around €0.67 per share.

What is being prepared at IASO?

Developments are moving fast in the private healthcare sector. After CVC’s mega deal for the acquisition by Abu Dhabi’s PureHealth Holding PJSC of the majority stake in Hellenic Healthcare Group, which controls approximately 10 hospitals and 16 diagnostic centers throughout Greece and Cyprus, there was another – smaller-scale – move on the chessboard. Specifically, a new company was established under the name “Artemis Therapeutic Services for the operation of nursing units and medical diagnostic centers,” with an initial share capital of 25,000 euros and IASO Private General, Maternity-Gynecological & Pediatric Clinic-Diagnostic Therapeutic & Research Center S.A. as its sole shareholder. The purposes of the new company include, among others: 1. The organization, operation, and/or management of all kinds of nursing units and primary healthcare units, diagnostic centers, laboratory centers, disease prevention centers, elderly care institutions, therapeutic centers, and/or research centers. 2. The establishment of companies, participation in future or existing enterprises, and the acquisition of businesses with the same or similar field of activity or corporate purpose, as well as IT, insurance, rehabilitation centers, nursing homes, and even investment, stock market, financial, banking, and all kinds of group companies. 3. The acquisition, management, and disposal of shares, corporate shares, or participation interests in such companies, listed or not, on any stock exchange or other relevant market. The leasing, self-use, and/or any other form of exploitation of the company’s or third-party properties, etc. It should be noted that the IASO Group is controlled by the Oaktree Capital fund. The new company’s three-member Board of Directors includes Emmanouil Doulgerakis (CEO of IASO) as President, Maria Papamarkou as CEO, and Aristotelis Gyparis as an executive member.

Sakis Kallitsantsis won – His brother appeals to the Supreme Court

Sakis Kallitsantsis won as, according to information, the legal dispute he had with his brother Dimitris Kallitsantsis was resolved in his favor. It should be recalled that Dimitris Kallitsantsis had made claims against his brother Sakis, blaming him for the handling he made as CEO of ELLAKTOR and the losses his assets suffered. Everything now indicates that the continuation of the legal battle between the two brothers will be taken to the Supreme Court.

He will have to put his hand in his pocket

Things are tough for Vodafone Innovus (formerly Zelitron, for the older ones), the subsidiary of Vodafone Greece specializing in solutions for the growing IoT (Internet of Things) market. The technology company saw its revenues decrease by 52% last year, dropping to 2.84 million euros, and its gross operating profit plummet to 677,202 thousand euros (-40%) due to the termination of collaboration with two major clients. The EBITDA picture was worse as it fell to 39.5 thousand euros compared to 735 thousand euros the previous year. Based on its published financial statements, its accumulated losses amount to 2.5 million euros, and both its equity and working capital became negative. To address the negative working capital, the management requested and received a written commitment from its parent company (dated 10/02/2025) for a period of at least 12 months from the approval of the annual financial statements, aiming to cover its working capital needs and provide financial support.

The Public Sector wants to buy 4,418 air conditioners

A 3 million euro expenditure on TV channels was approved by Minister T. Theodorikakos for the advertising campaign of ekatanalotis, the platform initially created under Adonis. Through the platform, consumers can research over 3,000 product codes via PC or mobile to see which supermarket offers the lowest prices. Since the topic of public expenses and tenders came up, it should be noted that the Public Sector is looking to procure 4,418 wall-mounted air conditioning units! The tender has a budget slightly above 2.55 million euros excluding VAT. This means that the Public Sector aims for “top-shelf” products, as otherwise, it would not justify setting an average maximum price of 580 euros per air conditioning unit – I repeat, excluding VAT! This is great news for air conditioning companies, as between household vouchers and direct government procurements, they have a significant revenue stream through the Public Sector.

The ECB’s difficult decision on Thursday

Under normal conditions, next Thursday, the European Central Bank’s Governing Council would proceed with another deposit rate cut of 1/4 percentage point, the 5th consecutive euro rate cut since last September and the 6th overall since last June, when it began its monetary policy easing cycle. However, things are no longer so simple. Yes, the European economy needs monetary policy support to avoid “sinking” for yet another year into growth rates below 1%. Trump’s tariffs, the war alert, defense spending, and the persistent stability of inflation have led many European central bankers to openly express disagreements, urging Christine Lagarde to hold back. The battle between “hawks” and “doves” started early over the weekend and will intensify in the next two days.

Defense Frenzy in Europe

The European leaders’ summit in London on the Ukraine issue resulted in a concrete decision: a significant increase in military spending in Europe. All defense-related and defense technology stocks soared on European stock exchanges, with the most notable examples being Germany’s Rheinmetall, Britain’s BAE Systems, France’s Thales, Italy’s Leonardo, Sweden’s Saab, and Norway’s Kongsberg.

The “Encryption Arms Race” Begins

Over the past two weeks, cryptocurrency values had been collapsing. Bitcoin’s exchange rate had plummeted below $80,000. Suddenly, President Trump announced the creation of a “strategic encryption reserve” that would include Bitcoin, Ether, XRP, Solana’s SOL token, and Cardano’s ADA, all in a post on Truth Social. Within just three hours of the post, cryptocurrency markets had already added more than $300 billion to their capitalization. Bitcoin surpassed $92,000. By formalizing a digital reserve, the Trump administration believes it has secured a strong hedge against inflation, reinforced U.S. economic sovereignty, and promoted innovation in blockchain technology. This game will have thrilling twists and turns.