Hello, the naming of ministers for political gossip columns may always have special interest, but let’s not become too predictable here… Far from here, much more important things are happening, in America and, by extension, in Europe, which concerns us.

The Most Critical Summit

Yesterday’s informal EU Summit, which lasted until very late at night, actually comes at the eleventh hour, as America and Russia are moving towards a compromise on Ukraine, leaving the Europeans stuck with the burden of security guarantees. Of course, there are the dissenting voices of Hungary and Slovakia, but everyone estimates that one way or another, decisions will be made at the March 20th Summit, making it one of the most critical in EU history. The positive aspect, as seen from the Greek side, is that Europe’s major players have realized the necessity and are willing to spend money, effectively implementing the spirit of Draghi’s report recommendations. What is also crucial for Greece, beyond the money on the table, is that fiscal flexibility for defense spending applies to all member states, not just those that previously did not reach 2% of GDP.

The Mitsotakis-Merz Dialogue

Mitsotakis and Merz had an extensive conversation at the Sofitel Hotel in Brussels just before the start of the EPP Summit. The two men know each other and clearly have good chemistry, having also spoken on the phone the day after Merz’s electoral victory. I am told that they discussed the prospects of forming a coalition government in Germany with Merz’s party and the Social Democrats, as well as Germany’s shift in stance on defense spending, with significant decisions being made to surpass the “debt brake.” Moreover, the EPP resolution text, which fully reflects Greece’s positions on the need for fiscal flexibility regarding budgetary expenditures, was presented by K.M. and passed with praise. The preparations were carried out by the EPP Secretary-General Thanasis Bakolas and the Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs and Secretary for International Relations of New Democracy, Tasos Chatzivasileiou.

Maximos’ Polling

After last Friday’s rallies, the Maximos Mansion is attempting to map out the new political landscape taking shape. I hear that a new round of polling began as early as Tuesday, but the government is not rushing to draw conclusions or analyze the numerical data just yet. That is why a second round of polling will follow next week, with a slight gap from the major demonstrations.

Athens City Center

Now, what I wrote about the chaos after yesterday’s gathering for Tempi, I must admit, resonated with various categories of citizens—professionals, entrepreneurs, etc. You see, the broader center of Athens, not just Syntagma, is arguably the ultimate success story of the last five years, since 2019. Tourism and revenue in Athens have increased by around 40% in recent years, with thousands of small and medium-sized businesses emerging around the city center, even in previously entirely degraded areas like Vathis Square, Metaxourgeio, and, of course, Exarchia. Additionally, hundreds of small, medium, and large hotels have sprung up. So, who wants a handful of rioters, with the “courteous assistance” of PAME and other… democratic forces, to create an image reminiscent of the 2014 upper and lower squares and start the constant unrest? Perhaps the merchants and hoteliers? Perhaps Charis Doukas? I highly doubt it, but you know, someone has to come out and say all this, and even raise the issue in Parliament, questioning the opposition. And I believe the most suitable person to take a stand and speak out is none other than Mitsotakis himself. And then he should tell Chrysochoidis to round them up and put an end to it, because that’s why the people elected this government twice.

Rotation

I return for a moment to the reshuffle, although I don’t have anything groundbreaking beyond what has already been written by us and other media. I hear that Chatzidakis is likely locked in at the Maximos Mansion as coordinator of government work, and I also know that K.M. is looking for an Infrastructure Minister (essentially a contractor) who will be his “employee” and not someone else’s. Let’s see, let’s see… But I would say that, given that the ministerial rotation in the second term has not gone particularly well, perhaps K.M. should reconsider. I mean, really, if someone is doing their job well, you don’t move them. If someone is ineffective in their ministry, instead of just transferring them, you send them home. And you try someone else. Don’t tell me that ND doesn’t have a bench, because, for example, who knew Pavlos Marinakis before the Prime Minister tested him in the tough position of government spokesperson? Some MPs would surely be better than recycling old faces. How many times can the same minister switch chairs? Three, four? I don’t think so.

The Upsets in the Storage Tender and PPC’s Objection

You shouldn’t be surprised if you see upsets in the final list of runners-up for the third and final storage tender conducted by the Regulatory Authority for Energy for a capacity of 190 MW. Well-informed sources tell me that the process is currently in the objections phase. And these objections come from very large groups that seem to have been left out of the tender process based on the shortlist before the final list is released. The same reliable sources inform me that among those who have filed objections against the results is PPC, contesting the participation of the company Ecosolar, based in Grevena and owned by Christos Petrocheilos. He is one of the most dynamic players in the renewable energy market through various companies, with Kiefer being the most prominent. It is worth noting that the recent tender caused quite a stir because the preliminary list of runners-up did not include the heavyweights of the renewable energy sector, such as PPC, Metlen, Terna Energy, and Motor Oil. Instead, projects from Helleniq Energy, EDF, Eunice, and others were favored. In any case, we will have to wait for updates next week as the related proceedings are in full swing.

Bluehouse Changed Its Name (Blame the Prosecutions)

Apparently under the weight of the criminal prosecutions (fraud on a continuous basis at a felony level and also breach of trust at a felony level) brought against them by Prosecutor Angeliki Triantafyllou, as well as rumors circulating in the market about further charges, the co-founders of Bluehouse Capital, Victor Pisante and Babis Pandis, decided to change the name and tax identification number of their operations. Under the new name Aviara (e.g., Aviara Development & Property Management with TIN 801149840, which changed its name from Bluehouse on February 26, or Aviara Asset Management in Poland and Aviara Capital Ltd in Cyprus), the two entrepreneurs continue their activities until their cases reach a final verdict. The boards of directors of the new companies include individuals from their close personal or family circles.

ADMIE’s Stock Also Froze

The suspension of payments to Nexans by ADMIE for the Greece-Cyprus electricity interconnection project may have been decided by the Operator in coordination with the French and with political backing, as it appears, but it could not leave the listed company’s stock unaffected. Investors do not like risk, especially of a geopolitical nature, and they rushed yesterday to reflect this on the stock market, with ADMIE’s share dropping by almost 5%. In recent weeks, the project’s prospects had pushed the stock above €2.80, while Eurobank Equities had labeled ADMIE a dividend play, setting a target price of €3.80. However, the latest developments represent a temporary setback.

The Party of ATHEX (and the Guests)

Yesterday’s session at the Stock Exchange started with a sudden sell order of 200,000 ATHEX shares, creating a certain mystery. The most interesting aspect, however, came later when the order was absorbed with impressive ease, and the stock began its upward trajectory aiming for a capitalization of 300 million euros. All indicators favor ATHEX. The average daily transaction value on the Stock Exchange has increased by +17.6% compared to last year. The total market capitalization has exceeded 115 billion euros, meaning that the fees paid by listed companies to ATHEX for the first quarter of the year will be higher. Market capitalization will further increase with the upcoming listings of Qualco and the Fais Group. The management has planned a new pricing system for all ATHEX services, which will lead to increased revenue flow for the company. This is why, even in a declining session, ATHEX’s stock recorded a gain of +0.71% at 4.93 euros, with a market value of 297.8 million euros. And since I’ve already promoted ATHEX with all of the above, I should add that there are rumors of certain market forces aligning to drive the stock. After yesterday’s session, I would say the invitations have been sent, the party has started, so let’s say happy 2000 (because we are in 1999).

Europe Awaits the Green Light from the Bank of Greece

At yesterday’s General Meeting, the shareholders of Europe Holdings (the entity formed from the merger of KLM – Intracom Properties) approved the upcoming capital increase, which is a key part of the plan to create a business hub with a presence in insurance and real estate management. Company executives told shareholders (with N. Makropoulos also present) that the much-anticipated approval from the Bank of Greece for Europe Holdings’ acquisition of Europe Insurance is expected soon, and if there are no delays, the capital increase and the entire endeavor are expected to be completed by the end of April. They also emphasized that when the plan was initiated, it was based on specific conditions that had long dominated the insurance sector. However, with the new initiatives and measures taken by the government, the industry’s growth is expected to accelerate in the coming years. This is already reflected in the financial performance of the insurance company, which recorded a 23% increase in total insurance premium production, reaching 22 million euros. The company’s goal is to achieve annual production between 40 and 50 million euros by 2026.

Good Enough…

Another session with a transaction value exceeding 200 million euros took place yesterday, with the market remaining at its highest levels in the last 14 years. The General Index started positively, reaching 1,644.3 points (+0.86%) with heavy trading. Then came the time for profit-taking, pushing it down to 1,618.32 points (-0.74%). By the end of the regular session, it had climbed back to 1,624.13 points (-0.38%), and through the auction process, it gained another point to close at 1,625.54 points (-0.3%). The total transaction value reached 202.5 million euros, of which only 14.9 million were in block trades. Declines in Eurobank and Piraeus, along with gains in Alpha and National Bank, brought the Banking Index to 1,546.86 points (-0.13%), dragging other indices into negative territory. ELLAKTOR, with a +2.6% gain at 2.37 euros, seems to have something to tell us, while Bank of Cyprus, which has been at the center of recent speculation, reached 5.5 euros (+1.85%). Quest (+2.2%) and Fourlis (+1.72%) stood out for different reasons and expectations.

Starting with ELSTAT, Moving to DBRS, and Ending with Moody’s

Today, ELSTAT announces the final growth rate of the Greek economy for the last quarter of 2024 and for the entire past year. The common consensus among estimates is that the growth rate exceeded 2.4%, more than double the European average and, of course, above the forecasts of the European Commission and the IMF. Later in the day, the rating agency DBRS is expected to release its evaluation of the Greek economy, having already highlighted Greece’s shift towards exports and investments. However, the big day will come a week later, on March 14, when everyone on Nikis Street awaits the long-awaited final upgrade of the Greek economy to investment grade by Moody’s.

Trump Shook Up the Bond Market

Trump achieved his goal. Without needing to impose tariffs on European products, he caused panic in the European bond market. Such turmoil, in other times, would have been justified by a sudden inflationary surge. This time, however, it is due to the fact that Europeans will have to spend heavily on an economic activity that lacks multiplier benefits—their defense. The once most stable bond in the Eurozone, the German 10-year bond, moved from 2.3% to 2.9%, dragging all European bonds along with it—the Italian to 4.01%, the Spanish to 3.5%, and the Greek to 3.7%. Europeans will issue many bonds to finance the new defense strategy, banks will be forced to buy them, and the capital they commit will not be used for business growth initiatives. The European Central Bank can no longer buy Eurozone government bonds, as it has exhausted its budgetary limits. The ECB is lowering interest rates, but the cost of money is rising. All this is happening without significantly affecting the euro-dollar exchange rate because when we were discussing Trump’s impending victory, the euro was at $1.06. When Trump started the tariff war, the exchange rate slipped to $1.03. Today, it has returned to $1.08. The pendulum is moving within a reasonable range. Bonds, however, seem unable to bear the weight of the new era…

Fewer American Tourists Will Visit Us This Year

Elon Musk’s DOGE program caused 221,812 layoffs in the first two months of 2025, the highest number of job cuts in the U.S. economy since the 2009 crisis. In February alone, 172,000 job cuts were recorded. At the same time, tariffs are driving up the cost of living for the average American consumer. The first effects are already visible: The percentage of Americans planning vacations within the next six months has dropped by about five percentage points to 37%, the lowest since the 2020 pandemic. This is one of the largest monthly declines since the Conference Board consumer survey began. In February, 67% of Americans expressed fear for their financial future, a nine-month high. Additionally, 26% believe there will be fewer available jobs in the economy over the next six months, the highest percentage in 12 years. Simply put, American consumers fear their economy is entering a recession, and the last thing on their minds right now is their summer vacation.