The General Accounting Office of the State is set to announce today the final figures on tax collection for 2024 and the fiscal performance of the state budget during the first two months of 2025, both in terms of revenues and expenditures. Although the final figures for 2024 will be officially confirmed by Eurostat in April, they already show a massive surplus beyond the targets set for the year. This development paves the way for permanent tax reductions (rather than one-off handouts), as the Prime Minister hinted during his visit to the Ministry of National Economy and Finance yesterday.

The figures expected to be released today will outline the execution of the state budget for the first two months of 2025. However, the months of January and February also include the final two installments of the 2024 ENFIA property tax and income tax payments.

With these payments included, Athens and Brussels will assess the overall fiscal performance of the past year, evaluate how much of the revenue surplus is stable and sustainable for the coming years, project the revenue and expenditure trends for 2025, and ultimately lay the foundations for the benefits package the Prime Minister will announce at the Thessaloniki International Fair (TIF) in September.

What is already clear—based on the available figures—is that for the first time in history, the state achieved a fiscal surplus in 2024 rather than a deficit. This surplus exceeded what could be justified by economic growth and inflation, even though a series of taxes were reduced or abolished (e.g., the solidarity levy, business tax), and despite salary and pension increases—rather than the constant cuts that had been the norm over the past decade.

The revenue surplus is attributed to two main factors:

The “obvious reason” is the primary surplus, which includes an estimated €2 billion or more in recovered tax revenues from tackling tax evasion. This amount is over and above the gains from GDP growth, inflation, and the savings from presumptive taxation of self-employed professionals. It is directly linked to the implementation of the myDATA digital bookkeeping system and the mandatory integration of POS systems with cash registers “everywhere” in the market. This development strengthens the prospect of relaxing or even abolishing tax imputation criteria when limiting tax evasion is no longer an objective but a proven reality.

The “hidden reason” is the credit rating upgrades from foreign agencies! These upgrades are estimated to have saved the country at least €800 million in interest payments over the next decade, as Greece can now borrow on better terms compared to a scenario where it had not received these upgrades. While this indirect benefit is not recorded in the primary surplus, it adds to the overall fiscal balance (surplus or deficit) each year.