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Analysis: The diplomacy of illusion in Gaza – Ukraine: Peace in words, wars in practice

Donald Trump's grandiose plans "stumble" in both the Middle East and Ukraine - The intransigent Putin and the fragile Gaza front

Newsroom October 22 05:33

Peace is easy to talk about. But real peace requires effort, time and consistency. Donald Trump is learning this the hard way, as his two big missions – in the Middle East and Ukraine – seem to be sinking into their own dead ends.

The US president has cancelled plans for a second summit with Vladimir Putin, saying he “doesn’t want to waste his time.” At the same time, Vice President J.D. Vance rushed to the Middle East, where Trump just days ago proclaimed that he had achieved “lasting peace.” The Israel-Hamas truce is holding, but just barely…

From Gaza to Ukraine – two fronts, one year

Trump’s critics are pushing the hyperbole behind his pronouncements. He had presented small steps as historic events, and now he is paying the price for overpromising. But to wish for his failure would be cynical. Global stability, after all, hangs on a fragile balance.

In Gaza, Trump managed to stop the hostilities – a real success. But at the same time, he hoped to pave the way for a new initiative in Ukraine. Reality brought him down hard.

Today, he has also frozen any plans for a new meeting with Putin after Foreign Minister Marco Rubio‘s contacts with Moscow failed to yield results. The past week feels like a pendulum swing… Ready to send Tomahawk missiles, then hesitation, then a spat with Zelensky.

The diplomacy of illusion

Vance traveled to the Middle East to keep the peace narrative alive. But reality is rarely and hardly forgiving. The truce began to waver dangerously when Israel blamed Hamas for the deaths of two of its soldiers and responded with new raids and bombings.

The U.S. mission tried to buy time and prevent the collapse. Vance spoke of “optimism” and “stability”, but the picture on the ground shows the opposite. He did, however, convey a clear message: that Washington remains present and that Arab states must support Trump’s plan.

Putin, who doesn’t change

In Ukraine, the backdrop of war has remained unchanged for years. Putin seems unmoved, while Russian attacks on energy infrastructure prove that “winter as a weapon” is returning. Trump expected a change of stance from Moscow. Instead, he found himself back in the same impasse.

Russia continues to demand that Kiev cede territory to Luhansk and Donetsk – a condition unacceptable to Ukrainians. Trump seems rather weary of the obstacles and has brought back the idea of freezing the lines where they currently stand. “The rest is very difficult to negotiate.”
He said.

The fragile Gaza front

The ceasefire in Gaza is already showing its limits. Hamas is reasserting its power by executing Israeli collaborators, while the plan for an international peacekeeping force remains theoretical.

Trump insists that“America’s allies are ready to go into Gaza with troops” – but no country has indicated a willingness. His post was more like a wish than a strategy. And so, unfortunately, is the peace plan in Ukraine.

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US–Iran talks fail: “We made clear what our red lines are,” Vance says departing Islamabad

It is still not too late

Donald Trump is still teetering between ambition and gridlock. His attempts at peace look more like scenes from an American drama than cool diplomacy. But in the maelstrom, one thing he is given credit for – data tries. And perhaps, as long as he keeps trying, there is still time.

 

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