A race began on Monday, 17 November 2025, which will determine the fate of €8 billion in funds that Greece must secure by next summer from the Recovery and Resilience Facility, as well as the government’s ability to introduce new benefits in 2026.

From the European Commission’s winter forecasts released on Monday, 17 November 2025, to the new Budget, and finally to the year’s last ECOFIN Council on 12 December, developments over the next month form a “triple wager.” If won, it will signal far more favorable prospects for the economy, businesses, and households in 2026.

Budget 2026 and the Multiannual Plan

These documents incorporate all the benefits announced at the Thessaloniki International Fair, whose full implementation extends to 2027.
The final state budget will forecast 2.4% growth for 2026, a rate almost double the eurozone average, while public debt is projected to fall to 137.6% of GDP in 2026, down from around 210% in the years following COVID-19.
From 2026 onward, Greece will no longer be the “European champion” in debt, as Italy and France are expected to overtake it.

The economy will thus begin to allow more room for new measures in 2026—though always within the limits of the new EU-wide fiscal rules. Under these rules, benefits that had not been foreseen when the current budget was submitted in November 2025 were already announced in April.

Minister Kyriakos Pierrakakis has stressed that the 2.4% growth forecast for 2026 is not “optimistic” but realistic and well-founded, based on two pillars:

The TIF measures, which strengthen disposable income and boost domestic demand, adding around 0.6 percentage points to growth, and

More than €7 billion expected to flow into the country next year from the Recovery and Resilience Facility.

The crucial ECOFIN

The next major wager will be the ECOFIN decisions on 12 December. What is at stake is €6.2 billion, the final tranche of grants Greece can still receive in 2026 from the €18.2 billion in total RRF grants allocated to the country.

This requires Greece, in the final stretch before the program ends next August, to achieve extraordinarily high absorption rates—equal to 2.5% of GDP within just eight months.

To remove every obstacle and ensure that Greece does not lose “a single euro,” the EU Finance Ministers’ Council must approve Athens’ request for the final revision of Greece’s Recovery and Resilience Plan. Only then will it become clear how the next disbursements will proceed, and whether any funds will ultimately be lost in 2026 as the program closes for good next August.

The government has carried out a major revision of Greece’s plan in the RRF to ensure that the country does not lose the remaining funds.

The reason is simple: the original timetable of several projects could no longer be met—due to bureaucracy, low investment interest, or weaknesses in local authorities. Under pressure from the Commission and the European Court of Auditors, member states were asked to withdraw any projects that would not be completed in time and replace them with more mature interventions.

The race for €6 + 2 billion

The Recovery and Resilience Facility for Greece totals €36 billion (€18.2 billion in grants and €17.7 billion in loans, according to the 2025 Budget).
To date, Greece has received €21.3 billion (59% of available funds), including €9.9 billion in grants and €11.4 billion in loans.

With the expected November disbursement of €2.1 billion (6th request), total receipts by the end of 2025 will reach €23.4 billion (65% of the total), including €12 billion in grants (66% of the grant target).

Thus, €6.2 billion in grants remain to be absorbed in three “express-pace” tranches in 2026, while the government must also strive to make maximum use of another €6.3 billion in remaining loans.

The loan front is more challenging because absorption depends on businesses. Unlike grants, loans must be repaid with interest, so careful—not full—disbursement is essential.

A total of €15.4 billion was allocated for low-interest business loans. Nearly €8 billion has been contracted so far, corresponding to €17.5 billion in investments through co-financing by commercial banks, the EIB, and the EBRD. Market analysts estimate that Greek businesses will absorb about 75% of the loans (€12–13 billion).
This means that of the remaining €6.3 billion, only €1–2 billion are expected to be used, while €3–4 billion may remain unused.

In any case, the wager of securing €7–8 billion in total within eight months will shape the trajectory of the Greek economy in 2026 and beyond, influencing growth, employment, wages, and additional tax reductions beyond those included in the Budget.