The 24 hours of Emmanuel Macron in Athens and the five-year (and then indefinite) renewal of the Greek-French defense cooperation agreement were a good moment for the government.

For this reason, Kyriakos Mitsotakis even made sure to start his Sunday with a greeting in French, as the deepening of this bilateral relationship is considered highly beneficial for Athens. It even appears that the next chapter, beyond armaments and mutually interesting business deals under discussion, will be closer cooperation with a focus on artificial intelligence in defense.

However, after the “international” weekend that preceded it, the government is returning to a more difficult daily reality. Mr. Mitsotakis will welcome today at the Maximos Mansion the Vice President of the Commission, Teresa Ribera, and then head to the Presidential Mansion for his monthly meeting with Konstantinos Tasoulas. The challenge for Maximos Mansion is to regain control of the agenda and move away from the agenda of scandals.

According to the government’s reading, this will also determine New Democracy’s polling performance by the end of spring, as recent surveys show some wear for the ruling party, but also reflect high volatility in the political landscape. This volatility is expected to intensify with the creation of new political formations, possibly even within May.

“Positive agenda”

In this environment, overshadowed by the OPEKEPE case, the fiasco involving Makarios Lazaridis, and even the tension surrounding the presence of Laura Kövesi in Greece and the discussion about the role of the European Public Prosecutor’s Office, Mr. Mitsotakis is seeking political disengagement.

The term “positive agenda,” originally linked to Greek-Turkish relations, is being applied here as well, as the government aims to focus on detailing the economic package announced last week. This includes increased support for families with children, pensioners, and renters, as well as a generous framework of debt regulations, highlighted by 72 installments for those with accumulated debts up to the end of 2023.

The package was designed, like the one announced at the Thessaloniki International Fair, with specific targets. On one hand, families with children are being supported again, in line with the tax reform announced in Thessaloniki, as they are particularly pressured by inflation. A similar logic applies to the increased annual one-off payment to pensioners every November, with expanded income criteria.

It is no secret that the elderly are among the age groups where New Democracy performs best. In the coming days, the government will focus on detailing the measures so citizens understand what applies to them. Importantly, the funds for families with children (€150 per child) will be distributed at the end of June based on defined income criteria, without requiring applications.

At the same time, the government is maintaining a “buffer” of around €200 million for this year in case additional intervention is needed due to the consequences of war, while the next round of economic benefits is planned for the Thessaloniki International Fair, which, according to government officials, will be “the fair of the market,” with provisions especially for freelancers and businesses.

Meanwhile, as the Recovery Fund concludes, a communication push is expected over the next two months highlighting completed projects, as Mr. Mitsotakis is placing strong emphasis on the image that the government has delivered on its promises, especially as the country enters a pre-election environment.

The challenge, wear, and MPs

Clearly, the challenge for the government is not simple. After evident social fatigue and political wear, it must reconnect with key audiences to achieve the highest possible percentage in the elections and, if there is a second round, enter it from a position of strength.

Officials at Maximos Mansion warn against complacent voting and believe the most critical battle for New Democracy is voter mobilization. This is not easy, as cases of institutional deviation cast a shadow over the party’s profile, even among citizens who have supported it and may not face financial difficulties.

According to focus group readings by government officials, there are still citizens willing to listen to Mr. Mitsotakis, especially on economic policy and benefits, and who have not made a final break.

On the other hand, an experienced pollster notes that the government risks losing citizens who do not face serious economic problems but may turn away permanently due to corruption and mismanagement cases, reaching a point where its positive interventions are no longer heard. Since this risk is real—and historically every government reaches a turning point—Mr. Mitsotakis is pushing to return to a framework of positive messaging and a more controlled agenda.

At the same time, Maximos Mansion must manage internal party tensions. While the vote on lifting parliamentary immunity passed smoothly, a difficult parliamentary group meeting lies ahead on May 7.

Although the party is on a pre-congress path, internal discontent persists. For example, New Democracy MP Notis Mitarakis proposed abolishing non-parliamentary ministers as part of constitutional revision. Other MPs have openly criticized Akis Skertsos.

Aware of the challenging environment, Mr. Mitsotakis is expected to be very clear about his intentions when addressing party MPs, while he has made his support for Mr. Skertsos absolutely clear.