The government is in the lead. The opposition remains unconvincing. Citizens continue to struggle. Stability comes at a price. These four themes sum up the shared findings of the two most recent major opinion polls in Greece, one conducted by Pulse for the broadcaster SKAI, the other by MRB.

Despite differences in the specific figures, a consistent picture emerges from both surveys. New Democracy, the centre-right party led by Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis, continues to hold a clear lead. Mitsotakis himself remains the ruling camp’s strongest political asset, and the opposition continues to struggle to translate public discontent into a convincing governing alternative.

The vote for stability

The more interesting question is not simply who leads, but why. In the Pulse survey, New Democracy hovers around 30% in voting intention, while MRB puts the party slightly lower, at roughly 29%. The gap between the two polls is minor; the underlying political picture is identical: New Democracy sits clearly in first place, its dominance unchallenged.

Pulse’s findings point to four further indicators worth noting. Some 45% of respondents say they would prefer a single-party government, against 38% who favour a coalition. Meanwhile, 46% want the next general election held only once the current four-year parliamentary term is complete. Asked who is best suited to serve as prime minister, 30% named Mitsotakis, with Alexis Tsipras, the former prime minister and ex-SYRIZA leader, trailing in second place on 17%.

Officials at New Democracy’s campaign headquarters note that it is unusual to see a government simultaneously lead in voting intention, have its prime minister maintain a clear edge in personal suitability ratings, and enjoy public support both for single-party rule and for serving out a full term. According to government figures, these four indicators reflect not just electoral strength but a broader relationship of public trust in the administration’s capacity to govern. That said, it does not mean the government has prevailed on every front.

An opposition without a clear standard-bearer

The picture is equally clear-cut on the opposition side. In the Pulse poll, second place goes to ELAS on 17%, ahead of PASOK, the centrist socialist party, on 11.5%, with SYRIZA, the left-wing party once led by Tsipras, down at just 2%. MRB shows different specific margins but points to the same broader trend.

The opposition remains deeply fragmented, lacking a unifying figure capable of mounting a credible challenge for power, a problem that appears most acute for Tsipras and for Nikos Androulakis, the PASOK leader. Tsipras is attempting to reposition himself in public discourse, while Androulakis continues to invest in a strategy of institutional, parliamentary-style opposition. Neither approach, however, has yet generated momentum strong enough to seriously threaten New Democracy’s political dominance. In short, the governing party is losing some ground, but no opposition force has yet emerged to capitalise on it.

The cost-of-living reality

This is the one area where the numbers complicate the wider narrative, producing what seasoned analysts describe as the paradox of the current political moment. Even as the government holds a steady lead across most political indicators, the cost of living remains its clear vulnerability.

In the Pulse survey, 89% of respondents describe the cost of living as the most important, or one of the most important, problems facing the country. Voters continue to trust New Democracy more than its rivals to govern effectively, yet they judge the government’s performance chiefly on prices, disposable income and living costs. “As long as the high cost of living remains the dominant social concern, political dominance faces a natural limit,” one seasoned political insider told protothema.gr, the Greek news outlet.

The finer details

Several smaller findings, while not altering the overall picture, add nuance to the political landscape. One concerns speculation that Antonis Samaras, the former prime minister and New Democracy leader, might launch a new party. Pulse’s data suggests little momentum behind such a move: only 13% of respondents say they would “definitely” or “probably” vote for a Samaras-led party, against 79% who say they would not. Notably, his appeal even among current New Democracy voters appears to have declined since the previous poll in May.

The surveys also suggest that Greece’s newer, smaller political formations continue to function largely as vehicles for protest votes rather than as coherent governing alternatives, a trend likely to remain worth watching as the country moves closer to its next general election.