Hello! The news that was widely discussed was the departure of the Prime Minister’s economic advisor, Alexis Patelis, from his position at the end of the year. Let’s start with the basics: Patelis left on his own and in a good climate—this to dispel any recycled scenarios that he supposedly disagreed with the upcoming measures against banks or with the recent statements by K.M. against global excesses regarding the woke agenda. I hear that Patelis had, some time ago, already reopened the discussion with Mitsotakis about his departure, which the latter had dismissed. However, this time, the decision of the economic advisor of five years was final. You may have already read it: he is preparing a book on the government’s achievements in the economy and reforms, which, I hear, will be prefaced by the Prime Minister himself. It is evident that Patelis felt his chapter had closed, as he explained to anyone who called him. Stay and enter politics, or decide that the cycle was over and explore other opportunities? Given that he had no intention of entering politics to begin with, he chose the latter, even though he doesn’t have a definite plan for 2025—other than staying in Greece. Generally, Patelis was a very positive presence in M.M. (the Prime Minister’s Office), especially during the challenging first years when the economy, investments, and the banking system required a lot of hard work to get on track. These are what will “remain” from his tenure.

Patelis’s Successor

Of course, the question is who will take over Patelis’s duties, as the position is far from insignificant, given that the Prime Minister’s economic director communicates with banks, entrepreneurs about investment plans, the market at large, as well as European institutions and the ECB. I hear that Michalis Argyrou, currently head of the CEA (Council of Economic Advisors), is a strong candidate for the position. He is an exceptionally capable technocrat with a low profile that fits the environment. K.M. has not yet made a final decision; he will weigh the facts, and by the end of the week, announcements are expected. For now, the “economic task force” of the Prime Minister consists of Patelis, Argyrou, and Deputy Finance Minister Thanos Petralias, regardless of their institutional roles.

Charis and Consensus

Perhaps you heard that today Athens Mayor Charis Doukas will visit the Maximos Mansion (the Prime Minister’s office). He wants to discuss institutional issues with the Prime Minister, ranging from the double regeneration plan and the state of Athens’s school buildings to the city’s resilience regarding necessary flood prevention projects and social housing. It is also evident that Doukas sees the value of consensus, judging by the Mitsotakis-Androulakis meeting, and the mayor is eager to focus on his work and showcase as many accomplishments as possible instead of engaging in political disputes. He also reportedly mentions this to his friends.

Anna of the Metro…

Now, if you add to the picture yesterday’s video of Anna Diamantopoulou in the Thessaloniki Metro—where even Mitsotakis and Exarchou could have made her seem less enthusiastic—you might conclude that the Christmas spirit has suddenly arrived in PASOK with full force. Get ready for a Grosse Koalition being prepared German-style… (This is a joke, don’t take it as reporting.)

Your Little Aphroditi…

Yesterday, I was talking to my pollster (my source, of course, because as we know, journalists don’t have pollsters) about the political situation, and he told me this: “All these years, when we conducted off-election-period surveys, we always compared apples to apples and oranges to oranges. That is, I don’t think it’s right that some colleagues recently compare ND (New Democracy), for instance, to the 28% of the European elections instead of the 41% of the national elections. Of course, we considered the circumstances, but you can’t ignore in a poll that European elections had about 1 million fewer voters compared to national elections,” he said, and I think he has a point. However, between us, I didn’t find this as interesting as something else he told me about Latinopoulou. “What’s happening with the Voice of Reason? Is she pulling votes from Velopoulos and ND, or from somewhere else?” I asked, and received the surprising answer: “Latinopoulou gets 90% of her votes from middle-aged men.” Now, since she calls herself the “Voice of Reason,” I will comment by saying it’s clear that Greek middle-aged men are charmed by both her rhetoric and the zest she exudes while dancing to YMCA!

Douzoglou (more questions)

I am perusing the 27-page report by Eurobank—which, of course, the relevant authorities also have—on Douzoglou, who, despite the inflow of millions from abroad (without sufficient or even any documentation), continues to keep most of his properties unused to this day. The most notable cases include the Pentelikon Hotel, the former OTE building on Stadiou Street, and many others. Douzoglou’s companies even requested financing for property purchases totaling €19.5 million. With financial means allowing him to buy properties like shirts, why did Douzoglou need to wait for bank approval? The banks, on their part, are cautious since the “Venezuelan” was listed on the Reichenbach list (a registry of wealthy Greeks flagged by foreign tax authorities). Moreover, entries were found in the Paradise Papers, where the names of offshore companies matched those of Douzoglou’s firms, such as CANAIMA, ORINOKO, and others.

The “rescuer” of Yalco

“Familiar” in the Greek market is Sohanalo Limited, which in recent days has assumed the role of “rescuer” for the Yalco company of the Konstantinou family. This is because it is the Cypriot subsidiary of B2Holding, which has been active in the non-performing loans sector for years, with its most significant involvement concerning the Sarakakis Group. Some years ago, Eurobank transferred its “share” of bonds with a nominal value of €70 million to the Norwegian B2Holding group, which operates in Greece as a non-performing loan manager through B2Kapital. In the Sarakakis case, the fund’s loans were transferred to its Cypriot subsidiary, Sohanalo Limited, established in April 2018. It is noted that the Group had entered into joint bond loans amounting to €180 million with bondholder creditors, including investment companies Sohanalo Ltd and Galaxy IV Funding Designated Activity Company. After prolonged negotiations, a positive outcome was achieved. As stated in the 2023 financial statements of “Sarakakis”: “Following successive capitalizations into the share capital of the Issuer by offsetting Sohanalo’s claim arising from the Bond Loan and a debt assumption of €32.32 million by Sarakakis Center S.A. to Sohanalo also arising from the Bond Loan, the total debt of the Issuer to the Bondholders has been reduced to €42,594,594.59.” Now it’s Yalco’s turn.

Greece (and Cyprus) a “sure bet” for Allwyn

The highest boost in revenue and profit in the third quarter of 2024 for Allwyn International, parent company of OPAP, came from Greece and Cyprus. The two markets showed a 26% increase in adjusted EBITDA and a 17% increase in revenue compared to the same quarter last year, the only ones with positive results. OPAP’s performance made the difference, specifically the €19 million mega jackpot in Joker, the second-largest in the game’s history, and the achievements in sports betting and iGaming. Allwyn’s nine-month financial update also notes that its stake in OPAP increased to 51.78%. The group, owned by Czech billionaire Karel Komárek, now headquartered in Switzerland since October 2023, posted total nine-month net revenue of €982 million (+11%) and adjusted EBITDA of €411 million (+12%).

DEMO’s investments

The major investment by pharmaceutical company DEMO to create a Biotechnology Research Center in Agios Stefanos, Attica, is progressing. This production project, supported by the Recovery Fund, aims to establish a Biotechnology Drug Production sector in Greece from scratch. It is part of a €356 million overall investment plan through 2027, focusing on strengthening DEMO’s international position and entering high-growth potential areas, such as the development and production of raw materials and biopharmaceuticals. This investment plan also includes the production hub in the Tripoli Industrial Zone for raw materials and final drug production, as well as the Pharmaceutical Research & Development Center in Thermi, Thessaloniki.

Helleniq Energy prepares for the next step

The usual stock market practice is “buy the rumor, sell the fact”—buy on speculation and sell when the news breaks. In Helleniq Energy’s case, things happened the other way around. The stock was stuck well below €7 for several weeks, despite persistent rumors about the acquisition of the remaining 50% of Elpedison. Only after the agreement was announced did the stock price rise to €7.13 (+3.41%) with a significant trading volume of €1.5 million. Clearly, those who bought shares yesterday are anticipating the €0.20 pre-dividend on January 20, but mainly betting on a second placement of Helleniq Energy shares to institutional portfolios abroad. The revenue is already included in the 2025 Budget at a clearly higher price than the previous one, i.e., €7. Such a move, however, requires the agreement of major shareholders. On its part, the Ministry of Finance earlier this month submitted and passed an amendment for the acquisition of 35% of the shares of DEPA Commercial held by Helleniq Energy. According to the amendment, payment to Helleniq Energy will be made through dividends, with a total amount estimated at approximately €200 million. Currently, in Helleniq Energy’s shareholding structure, Paneuropean Oil of the Latsis Group holds 40.41% and the Hellenic Republic Asset Development Fund holds 30.31%.

The Deputy CEO steps down

Today, the administration of the Growthfund presents the achievements of the past three years to the press, ahead of imminent management changes. For Stefanos Yiourelis, Deputy CEO and executive board member of Growthfund, this will be his last press conference as he has not sought renewal of his term. After serving two consecutive terms under two different administrations (Rania Aikaterinari and Grigoris Dimitriadis) and with 40 years of work (33 in the private sector, mainly abroad), Stefanos Yiourelis is stepping down to enter private life.

MED sets sail for the Main Market

With a target capitalization of €100 million and advisor VIGOR Finance, which includes former Capital Market Commission chairman Nikos Kontaroudis, MED has begun the process of transitioning its shares from the Alternative Market to the Main Market of the Stock Exchange. Yesterday, the stock broke the €1 threshold with a +10% rise.

Rise of Unblocking…

Sixth consecutive upward session for the General Index, naturally including the Banking Index. Stocks that conducted placements during the year are unblocking investors who opted for them. National Bank shares at €7.746 (+3.83%) are now above the €7.55 placement price. Piraeus shares at €3.919 (+1.11%) are nearing the €4 threshold from the HFSF’s share disposal. Cenergy Holdings is at €9, exactly at the capital increase price. The shares of Athens International Airport “Eleftherios Venizelos” at €8.146 and Helleniq Energy at €7.135 are approaching the “liberation” level for all those seeking to channel their liquidity into other options. After the announcement of the Helleniq Energy deal at midday, the General Index climbed and concluded the session at 1,465.15 points, with gains of 0.58%, even without the support of Coca Cola or TITAN. The transaction value stood at €142.9 million, of which only €9.8 million was in block trades.

Inflation and Price Hikes Changed Tetra Pak’s Packaging

In 2023, Tetra Pak heavily invested in the sale of large family-sized packages. This choice might ultimately prove lifesaving, as inflation is the root cause. Production costs skyrocketed, raw materials became more expensive, and transport costs soared. Juice packaging, for instance, has been hit by price increases in raw materials, with orange prices having risen by 3-4 times. Similar increases are observed in other fruits like pineapple, apple, and cherry, creating pressures in the market. Tetra Pak shifted direction. It is developing new packaging solutions, such as for yogurt, initially being tested in Italy. If successful, these products will also be introduced to the Greek market. The general trend in today’s market is for Extended Shelf Life (ESL) products, offering hope for the packaging industry.

Three Central Banks Prepare for Interest Rate Cuts

Next week, three central banks—the Bank of Canada, the European Central Bank, and the Swiss National Bank—are expected to further lower their key interest rates. They seem to be in a hurry—not so much for the “soft landing” of their economies but mainly because they fear a harsh collision with recession. Central banks worldwide have carried out 62 interest rate cuts in the last three months, the most since the 2020 pandemic. This marks the fourth fastest rate of interest rate reductions this century. During the peak of the 2009 financial crisis, central banks, in an effort to avert disaster, implemented 76 rate cuts.