Hello, yesterday I asked one of the most experienced economists, with equally significant experience in politics, what Trump is aiming for and what the outcome of his actions will be. He looked at me with a smile and said, “That can’t be answered…not even ChatGPT can answer that, I doubt even Musk knows, let alone Trump who did it.” Obviously, we are witnessing—or rather unfortunately living through—historic developments, with repercussions on the global economy.

Athens

Before we return to the effects of the imposition of increased tariffs on the global economy, let us briefly convey an image and some estimates of how we are dealing with it here in Athens. Always under the perspective that Greece does not have such an “open” trade balance with the USA, but of course will be negatively affected mainly as an EU country.

Pierrakakis

The new Finance Minister Pierrakakis, who had just taken office when this historic event occurred, is studying and being briefed on the developments, and next week he will attend the ECOFIN where, of course, the sole topic of discussion will be this. Certainly, by then the EU’s response will have taken shape. So, we are likely talking about a new situation in which the fiscal rules, European budgets, and naturally domestic ones as well, will need to be significantly adjusted. I’m not saying this will be to Greece’s benefit, because there is absolutely no data or indication for that.

Political question

Let me just point out that once the initial dust and impressions settle and the first adverse effects of the global recession appear, then the thought will naturally arise that this country (like all others) needs a proper government and ideally a proper opposition as well.

The first estimates of the “shock and awe” tariffs

Let’s now turn to the first estimates made by large American investment banks as well as Greek entrepreneurs regarding the tariff policy announced by the Trump administration. First of all, it will take some reasonable amount of time for both the reactions to become evident and for it to be explored whether the tariff levels are negotiable, at least for some countries. Time will tell whether the “shock and awe” tariffs that were announced can force the U.S.’s trade partners to make concessions so that the U.S. can act accordingly.

The highest since 1910

The EU is not considered capable of responding by imposing tariffs on imports of American products due to the large imbalance in the EU-US trade balance. Specifically, about 30% of European exports go to the American market, while the EU absorbs about 11% of American exports. The tariffs that were announced are higher than analysts expected, which means that for them to be reliably implemented, a long period of time will be needed. The Trump tariffs are the highest since 1910 and if they are implemented without changes, then imports into the U.S. will be burdened with an average tariff rate of 18%, which is considered very high. Additionally, they function cumulatively, which means that the 34% announced for China is actually 54%, as there was a previous imposition of 20%.

Inflation increase of 1–1.5% this year in the 2nd and 3rd quarter

The tariffs will take effect starting tomorrow, April 5, for the general tariff at a rate of 10% on all exporters to the U.S., and from April 9 for the reciprocal tariffs. Estimates are that they could boost the U.S. Consumer Price Index by 1–1.5% this year, with the inflationary impact being felt mainly in the second and third quarter of the year. The blow to the purchasing power of the American consumer could push the growth of real disposable personal income into negative territory, which, if confirmed, would mean that the economy is at risk of sliding into a recession. As for businesses, early estimates place the negative impact on S&P 500 earnings at $36 per share.

Nearly 3 trillion dollars evaporated at the opening bell

In any case, the night before last (in Europe), day (in America), will go down in stock market history because it clearly reflects the fears and expectations of the markets. As soon as the PotUS announced tariffs on 185 countries simultaneously—the largest tax imposition in U.S. history—S&P 500 futures wiped out about $2 trillion in market capitalization in less than 15 minutes. Prior to the event in the White House Rose Garden, where the “willing” auto industry workers praised the President and his initiatives, an explosive report had been published in the Wall Street Journal predicting a single flat tariff of 10% on all imported goods and services into the U.S. The Wall Street Journal was right about the 10%, but the report hadn’t “caught” the higher “reciprocal” rates on dozens of countries. It was 4:26 p.m. on April 2 when the President presented the detailed list of tariffs. Up to that point, S&P futures were still in positive territory (+2%). At 4:42 p.m., the futures had fallen -4% from their high as Trump mentioned the new tariffs by name. As soon as the “Make America Wealthy Again” event ended, markets were recording losses, while all cryptocurrencies were also down more than 3%. Yesterday, with the opening of trading on Wall Street, things got worse. The stock market realized that the U.S. economy is heading toward a recession with rising prices (stagflation). The -3.7% drop at the market open must be the largest daily drop of the S&P 500 since the pandemic lockdowns in 2020. With the market’s opening, nearly $3 trillion evaporated from the index’s capitalization.

Calmer ND Parliamentary Group

And I return to the political scene, specifically to today’s session of the New Democracy Parliamentary Group, which—according to my source in the Maximos Mansion—will be “calmer than we expected.” Obviously, after Mitsotakis’s speech, a speakers’ list will open, but in this climate there are no MPs who want to create chaos, even if they privately have many reservations. Clearly, global developments with the U.S. tariffs do not encourage introversion. A characteristic example is Evripidis—leader of the unruly—Stylianidis, who is said to have no intention of speaking, because “whatever political thing you say during this period is perceived as an intra-party issue,” etc., etc. Obviously, some will take the floor, but I wouldn’t bet on a high-intensity scene.

“Earthquake, earthquake,” Vervesos caught red-handed

You obviously know that the clever bird gets caught by the beak. That’s more or less how poor Dimitris Vervesos, president of the Athens Bar Association, got trapped: the poor guy went and declared a civil party appearance in the Tempi trial because he smelled publicity and, wanting to seem serious, he asked a serious expert to prepare a Report on how the accident happened. The expert—Anastasios Dedes—took several months, but in early 2024 he delivered his Report, in which he explained everything. How the collision occurred, how the fire broke out, how the fireball was created—everything in full. No xylene, no suspicious cargo, just the hard reality. And what did Vervesos do? He took the expert report, submitted it to the examining magistrate, and began talking about a cover-up and xylene. Until Proto Thema found the Report, published it yesterday, and the president started to backtrack: claiming he couldn’t release the Report to the public because it’s part of the case file, which is secret—soon he’ll say he handed it over negligently, without reading it. Then he came up with another idea—that the Dedes Report was written before the new findings about the xylene were known. But the General Chemistry Lab found such small quantities of xylene that they don’t justify an explosion—but that, obviously, isn’t the president’s problem… Before Tempi, Vervesos had earned a few minutes of fame with a COVID party he threw for his birthday, during the lockdown. The video that surfaced showed guests shouting “earthquake – earthquake – Dimitris Vervesos.” I imagine that next time they’ll come up with a variation that fits the occasion.

Interest from international investors in PPC’s 300 MW giga data center

Let’s move to market news and specifically to PPC, where Georgios Stassis predicts that the company will need one to two years to finalize the investment scheme for the 300 MW giga data center to be built in Western Macedonia, with a target year of 2030. According to the PPC manager, who confides in private conversations, interest from international hyperscalers is already enormous, with investors lining up. PPC is not in a hurry, as it wants to complete the entire permitting framework so that the investor entering the large project will do so when it is ready to operate. An additional reason for the delays is that major players in the international market—who are very enthusiastic about the transformation of the lignite region—are currently busy with big projects in the US. PPC plans to create a Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV) for the needs of the project, which in the first phase will be 100% controlled by PPC and will later transfer a stake to an international investor. The scale of the giant investment is estimated at €2.3 billion. As for where the money will come from, the head of PPC is absolutely clear. “It’s the least of our problems,” he replies, considering how bankable such projects are.

Alliances for the ports

The opening of the expression-of-interest envelopes for cruise activity at the ports of Patras, Kavala, and Katakolo revealed particularly interesting partnerships. There was interest from four consortia, involving well-known Greek players and foreign giants. Specifically, Lamda (Latsis Group) is participating independently in the Hellenic Republic Asset Development Fund (HRADF) tender with its subsidiary Lamda Marinas, which already manages the marinas at Flisvos, Agios Kosmas, and Corfu. Lamda Marinas is interested in activity at the port of Kavala, as is GPH, a multinational of Turkish interests with a portfolio of cruise ports, which is also competing for the ports of Patras and Katakolo. There is also interest from Cruise Terminals International, in which Royal Caribbean holds a stake. Lastly, the Cruise Terminal Investment Limited – V Group SM consortium expressed interest in the cruise operations at Patras and Katakolo. This consortium is a partnership between a subsidiary of MSC Cruises and the business group of entrepreneur Vyron Vassiliadis. In the coming period, the envelopes will be evaluated, and it is estimated that within a minimum of 3 to 4 months, selected investors will submit their binding offers.

Big game in ports and shipyards

Since we’re on the topic of ports, it’s worth adding that the new owners of the revitalized shipyards are currently engaged in a flurry of meetings and partnerships, aiming to capitalize on the European defense equipment boom. Both Georgios Prokopiou of the Skaramangas shipyards and Panos Xenokostas of the Elefsis shipyards want to participate in the new defense programs and, along with those, utilize the country’s major ports. That’s why—this isn’t a secret—despite market uncertainties, there is intense activity these days with representatives of American, European, and Israeli groups seeking to form alliances with Greek companies active in defense programs and infrastructure.

Intralot compensated from the auction of the racetrack

After many twists and turns, the property housing the Olympic Equestrian Center and the racetrack in Markopoulo, totaling 1,000 stremmas (100 hectares), changed hands via auction. The initiator was EY (Ernst & Young), acting as the special liquidator of the dissolved ODIE to which the property belonged, and awarded the auction to the Cypriot company Ovetana Trading Co Ltd, owned by Georgios Melissanidis and Giannis Mytilinaios, who offered €19.28 million. However, the property was burdened with a prenotation of mortgage in favor of Intralot and against ODIE S.A. for an amount of €9.4 million (registered on 28-02-2014), as well as with a partial mortgage in favor of Intralot for €11.4 million (registered on 31-10-2013). Intralot sources stated that the company will be preferentially compensated ahead of other creditors, as it is the first registered creditor and has taken steps for full security. The final amount will be clarified after the distribution that will take place in the immediate future.

Alex…strikes again

Wappier, under the leadership of Alexandros Moukas, is at the center of a major business development: a reverse merger with WBM Capital Corp., which is listed on the Canadian stock exchange. The reverse merger was announced just two days ago, on April 2. This move will allow Wappier, an AI technology company focused on revenue optimization in mobile games, to enter the stock market without going through the traditional IPO route. By avoiding the time-consuming and thorough scrutiny of financial statements, Wappier will significantly strengthen its capital base and improve its visibility—in short, it will become more widely known to the investment community. The path carved by Alex Moukas strongly resembles his journey with Velti, which he developed from 2000 and listed on NASDAQ in 2011. However, Velti faced difficulties, culminating in a $111 million write-off in 2013 due to unpaid receivables, which inevitably led to the collapse of its stock. Despite major challenges, Alex Moukas managed to sell the company privately in 2013. Now, with Wappier, he aspires to repeat his success, avoiding the mistakes of the past.

The stock market in the grip of tariffs

Yesterday, the day traders’ trick didn’t work. It wasn’t a good day for short-term plays. Under the pressure of $6 trillion in tariffs, the stock market opened with a drop. Buyers appeared and briefly lifted the General Index into positive territory, but they failed to drag the market upward, and shortly thereafter, all stocks declined further than the initial dip. Those who tried to make quick profits around noon (12:00), when the General Index went into the green above 1,712 points, ultimately failed, as the session closed at 1,678.7 points (-1.77%). This back-and-forth of the General Index and the attempt to gain short-term profits during a clearly bearish session led to a significant increase in transaction value to €220.89 million, with around €18 million in block trades. Coca Cola (+2.67%) once again did its part above €43.1, hitting new historic highs, with a capitalization of €16.1 billion, but even with the help of OTE (+1.92%) at €15.9, it wasn’t enough to keep the Index afloat. Banks suffered from continuous and persistent sell-offs, with the most notable example being Eurobank—which just the day before had surged by +4%—losing it all yesterday with a -4.85% drop to €2.472. There’s little point in describing the fluctuations in share prices since there was no direction other than limiting losses. The market is searching for new positive catalysts, but it will likely have to wait at least until April 15, when Europe announces its own countermeasures against the madness of the tariffs, and then their potential effectiveness will be evaluated.