The news of the arrest of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro following US strikes on Caracas marks a historic turning point in relations between the United States and Latin America. In its analysis, the BBC attempts to decipher what will happen in Venezuela in the aftermath.

The British broadcaster notes that the United States has not carried out such a direct intervention in the region since 1989, when it invaded Panama to overthrow the country’s then military ruler, Manuel Noriega.

Maduro’s removal from Venezuela, as claimed by Trump, will be seen as a major victory for the more “hardline” figures within the US administration—some of whom have openly supported the need for regime change.

It is recalled that:

• The US accuses Maduro of leading a criminal drug-trafficking organization, an allegation he categorically denies.
• Washington does not recognize him as Venezuela’s legitimate president, arguing that the 2024 elections were neither free nor fair.
• Caracas, for its part, has long accused the US of seeking to seize the country’s lucrative oil reserves, believed to be the largest in the world.

The day after in Venezuela

What remains truly unclear is what will happen inside Venezuela should Maduro’s fall materialize.

Supporters of US intervention argue that this development will open the way for Venezuela’s opposition to take power, under the leadership of Nobel Peace Prize laureate María Corina Machado or the opposition’s 2024 candidate, Edmundo González.

However, many analysts believe the situation will not be so straightforward, as the military—and the risk of destabilization—must also be factored in.

The Venezuelan military and paramilitary groups remain loyal to Maduro, and even some of his critics had feared that direct US intervention could lead to further destabilization of the country.

It is certain that following news of Maduro’s arrest, many of his close allies will now be seriously concerned about their own future.