Hello, the war situation continues with undiminished intensity in the Middle East. Naturally, there are no reliable predictions about how long it will last, but it is evident that Iran’s arsenal is being depleted. Today, Mitsotakis is going to Cyprus together with Macron (I will return to this), and this also provides the best response to the “screams” of the Greek Left about our involvement in a war that obviously concerns us fully, since it is happening in our neighborhood and the Iranians struck (unsuccessfully) Cyprus. If we are also to believe Koutsoumpas, they tried again—without success—to “reach” Crete as well. Since the day before yesterday, Tsipras has also been added to the misery and the not-so-national behavior of the Left; he has now discovered that Mitsotakis is subordinate to Trump and that Cyprus joining NATO will harm it. Who says this? Tsipras—the same person who, for the sake of the Americans, “gave” the name to Skopje, says he is very proud of it, and supported their entry into NATO. You might say, what else can Alexis do—he too is trying to set up a shop, since that’s where his audience is. Alright, I personally have understanding for our beloved one, but come on—this man is a master of the kolotoumba (political flip-flop); the craft still comes to him as naturally as sifting flour through a sieve…

Elections…
As you can imagine, in recent days—also because of the extraordinary events—there have been plenty of reasonable speculations, sometimes dressed up as information, that Mitsotakis is considering snap elections, also prompted by the polls, which since last Monday have been showing him two points higher. So I asked my source what they think about the “temptation” for K.M. to go to elections immediately and of course take a risk, but with better chances than in recent months, at least according to the polls.

“I don’t know whether it might cross his mind because, as you understand—and he probably understands better than anyone—he sees the favorable circumstances, but I rule it out for the following reasons. First—and the most classic reason of all—the president is institutional; he doesn’t move the goalposts based on personal interest, and as you know he didn’t do that with the electoral law. Second, it would look very opportunistic in the eyes of the public, and he absolutely doesn’t want that; he cares about his profile, his longevity, and his legacy. Third, he believes he still has a lot to do until the end of the term and that these things will add votes rather than subtract them. Fourth, elections before Christmas would disrupt the plan to absorb about €700 million from the Recovery Fund, meaning either the money would be lost or we would have to cover it ourselves from the state treasury—which doesn’t have it.”

Personally, I fully embrace my source’s analysis, but of course one person decides, and that is the Prime Minister himself.

The fresh “koulouri” of the polls
As I told you, the first measurements for March started last week, and the figures I’m hearing are interesting. For the first time in a while, and because of the uncertainty of the war, New Democracy is gaining from month to month quite significantly—we’re talking about 1.5–2 points—rising in the estimate toward 33%. Today, two surveys will be published (Alco for Alpha and Opinion Poll for Action24) that demonstrate these data, with New Democracy recording strong consolidation but also drawing inflows from its right, mainly from Velopoulos and Latinopoulou. It is obvious that citizens overwhelmingly approve of the support for Cyprus and that Mitsotakis’ personal image is also being strengthened; therefore what pollsters want to see is whether these numbers are sustainable. In any case, what they acknowledge is that in the final stretch before the elections New Democracy enters from a position of strength and without a clear second place, since there is a “black hole” in the opposition. In one of the two surveys there is even a special question about the alternative choice for government, which clearly demonstrates the absence of an alternative in terms of both people and formations.

President Maria is falling…
One element described to me by an experienced pollster is that, as in other countries, crises and turbulence tend to favor the traditional formations—for example PASOK is picking up a few seeds, obviously also as a result of the serious choice by Androulakis to go and be briefed by Mitsotakis. Tsipras’ needle is not moving much, but that is not necessarily bad for him in this situation, while the loser of these days is President Maria, who “keeps falling and falling,” and the bets are now shifting to whether she will manage to hold on until the elections.

The Cyprus trilateral
Returning to the war matters: the meeting between Mitsotakis, Macron, and Christodoulides in Paphos was “locked in” last Thursday, when K.M. had phone calls with both the French president and Christodoulides. The format is “tested,” since the French have historically had a role in the Eastern Mediterranean, while the three of them—together with Lebanese President Aoun—had also held an informal quadrilateral meeting in Paris exactly one year ago. Let me remind you that Mitsotakis will go to Paris on Tuesday for a Summit on Nuclear Energy, while Macron is expected to come to Athens after Easter for the renewal of Greek-French defense cooperation. In short, they’ll be seeing each other frequently.

The Athens rematch
After the final decision of Kostas Bakoyannis to ignore the option of running in Athens’ First District and to again seek the mayoralty of Athens, we are heading toward a repeat of the match we had in 2023, since Doukas will also seek to renew his term. Bakoyannis has informed the central leadership of his decision and maintains regular communication with the Maximos Mansion, even if 2028 is still far away. He is also keeping his municipal faction warm, since you cannot easily build a political machine, and already on Saturday in an interview with Ta Nea he signaled that he has “unfinished business with Athens.” Soon, I imagine, things will become more official.

Karaoglou for the Region of Central Macedonia
With a large crowd, Thessaloniki ministers, and dozens of New Democracy MPs present, the MP for Thessaloniki B and former minister Theodoros Karaoglou announced on Saturday from the Porto Palace that he will seek the Region of Central Macedonia in 2028. He did not say it in his speech, but obviously he will not be on the New Democracy ballot in Thessaloniki B in 2027, and Voula Patoulidou is already being strongly mentioned for the region as well. Karaoglou had also scheduled a meeting with Mitsotakis for last Monday, which turned into a phone call because of the war. I hear that K.M. told him something along the lines of “this is not the time for such things,” but Karaoglou has made his decisions and is not at all concerned about the negative stance of Commissioner Tzitzikostas, who maintains influence in Thessaloniki affairs. Another interested party is former deputy regional governor Kostas Gioutikas, who has also “broken” with “Tzizi,” and we will see what decisions he will make. As for whom New Democracy will support in 2028, “we’re still far from that,” a serious source at the Maximos Mansion told me, because the first priority now is the candidate lists for 2027.

What Goldman Sachs believes about the crisis (and what it advises its clients)
In these hours of great uncertainty for markets regarding developments in the Middle East, the column prefers—rather than dizzying you with vague theorizing—to briefly present the view of Goldman Sachs Private Wealth Management, as it was expressed to its selected clients. Goldman Sachs held a discussion about the Middle East crisis and Iran with two geopolitical experts: American General R. Clarke, former commander of the 12th U.S. Special Operations Command, and Sir A. Younger, former head of MI6. Both strategists believe the crisis will continue for several weeks and that the frequency of Iranian attacks will moderate as missiles and launch equipment diminish. The British strategist believes that the most likely path for the Americans and their allies is to declare victory that would include the removal of the regime’s leadership alongside the destruction of Iran’s missile, naval, and nuclear capabilities. A prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz represents the market’s main risk. However, a prolonged disruption is not the base scenario of the two strategists, while abundant oil reserves and the spare production capacity of OPEC+ should help mitigate upward pressure on oil prices. The potential macroeconomic impact appears manageable in a moderate oil-shock scenario. Declines in stock prices linked to previous airstrikes in the Middle East and North Africa were usually brief. In fact, eight weeks after the initial attack, U.S. stocks were higher 95% of the time. Goldman Sachs recommends that its clients continue investing in U.S. equities supported by economic expansion and resilient earnings growth.

When foreigners will buy Greek bank stocks again
In the first month of the year, bank stocks on the Athens Stock Exchange were posting gains of around +20% to +30% each. At the time, analysts were publishing reports that foresaw a further +10% rise from those levels. Today, bank stocks have lost about 30%, while their managements are announcing increased profits (+15%) and good prospects. The upgrade of the Athens Stock Exchange to developed markets will certainly have the banking sector as a protagonist, while next Friday, March 13, Moody’s will announce its verdict on Greece’s creditworthiness, which it has already rated Baa3 with a positive outlook. Consequently, professional managers are keeping liquidity available while waiting for the opportunity to re-enter positions.

The Hellenic Capital Market Commission asked mutual funds for daily updates
Last week, all Asset Management Companies (AEDAK) received a letter from the Hellenic Capital Market Commission. In the letter, the Commission requested two things: first, that they report daily the inflows and outflows of units in the mutual funds under management; and second, that they state whether they have adopted liquidity management mechanisms, as provided by the relevant legislation enacted in 2025.

A second life for the Ethnos building
After years in obscurity, the property that housed the historic newspaper Ethnos and the companies of Pegasos Publishing is preparing to be used again. In recent weeks, construction work has been underway in the office building located in Metamorfosi of Chalandri, very close to the Doukissis Plakentias station. Structural reinforcement works, removal of old worn materials, and other renovations are taking place. Work crews operate daily and progress on the complex is rapid. The property, which belongs to the Ellaktor group, has a total area of 10,000 square meters, ample parking space, very good access to public transport, and proximity to the Attiki Odos highway. According to information, the new user of the property comes from the technology sector, with activities ranging from basic and applied research to the creation of systems and products and infrastructure support. This will not be the only Ellaktor property being redeveloped, as the group has decided to strategically focus on the development of real estate and tourism infrastructure. Among other things, the hotel “The Fiction” in Marousi (formerly Civitel), opposite Golden Hall, is already in operation, while a few days ago Ellaktor acquired for €44 million the 8,500-square-meter property that houses the Ministry of the Interior on Vasilissis Sofias Avenue.

Renewables as a “shield” for electricity prices
Meetings are increasing within the government team regarding the scope and intensity of the crisis in the Middle East, as its impact on the region’s energy infrastructure is now clear, with immediate consequences for energy and fuel prices worldwide. The government has set specific alert thresholds in order to activate measures to deal with the energy crisis. For natural gas, this threshold is set at €60 per megawatt-hour, while for oil it is $100 per barrel. In both cases we are approaching the alarm limit. Regarding natural gas, on Friday the TTF index at the Dutch hub closed at €52 per megawatt-hour. In contrast, the situation for oil appears more pressing, as the price of Brent reached $95 per barrel on Friday. One of the main concerns is how the international crisis will affect retail prices for both fuels and electricity, given that increases in the wholesale market are gradually passed on to consumer bills. Greece, however, seems to be in a relatively advantageous position, as its diversified energy mix and the increased participation of renewable energy sources in electricity generation act as factors restraining prices. For example, today the price in the wholesale electricity market is around €82 per megawatt-hour, following the lower prices of the weekend. This is primarily due to the increased participation of renewable energy sources, which cover 60.15% of the energy mix. If one also takes into account the contribution of hydroelectric power—which has filled reservoirs due to increased rainfall—the share of clean energy in electricity generation approaches the impressive figure of 75%, leaving expensive natural gas at 18%. In this environment of increased geopolitical uncertainty, the strong presence of renewable energy sources in the country’s energy mix acts as an important “cushion” for electricity prices, limiting to some extent the impact of international turbulence in fuel markets. The greater the participation of green energy in electricity production, the more dependence on fossil fuel fluctuations is reduced and, consequently, pressure on the wholesale market declines.

Something is not going well with the water sector
Something appears to be wrong with the water sector—and I am not referring to the well-known problem of drought. I hear that at RAAEY, the regulatory authority supervising not only energy but also the water sector, a large number of complaints and reports are arriving. Given the understaffing of that department, external support is also needed. Thus, at the end of February RAAEY approved an expenditure “concerning support to the Authority in managing complaints and reports, amounting to €10,000 plus the corresponding VAT of 24%, €2,400, totaling €12,400, including any other legal charge or expense.” The decision was taken following a request from the Vice President of the Water Sector branch for support in handling complaints and reports. As stated: “In the sector of water service provision, the Authority receives numerous complaints and reports from consumers throughout the country on various issues, which require thorough examination and special handling. Due to the severe understaffing of the sector, the process of examining complaints and reports from water service consumers cannot be easily managed by the competent department. Since consumer protection is an important responsibility of the Authority, the expenditure is deemed necessary in order to ensure its uninterrupted performance.” Let’s see what will come out in the end.

Attica department stores looking toward the stock exchange
Nothing official has been announced yet. However, the management of IDEAL Holdings—based on its presentation of the 2025 results to analysts, where it left such a possibility open—is examining the independent listing of Attica Department Stores on the Athens Stock Exchange. In 2025, Attica Stores recorded revenues of €244.2 million and net profits of €18.5 million. These are figures that justify a valuation and an independent identity on the market board. The target for 2026 is €300 million in sales. Expansion in Ellinikon is still under question, while the introduction of new brands is considered certain. Physical stores received 6.9 million visitors in 2025. IDEAL Holdings, which operates as a holding company, is essentially a listed private equity firm. Listing its subsidiary on the stock exchange is a classic tactic for creating value. Attica Stores are planning investments exceeding €8 million in 2026, including new cash register systems, CRM, a loyalty program, and artificial intelligence tools for the e-shop.

Iron Maiden passed smoothly through…the Strait of Hormuz
On the planet of geopolitics, where the Strait of Hormuz resembles a high-risk chessboard, one name managed to steal the show: Iron Maiden. Not, of course, the heavy metal band, but the tanker that passed through the strait without problems. At a time when Washington, Tel Aviv, and Tehran are exchanging missiles and threats, about 300 tankers are waiting patiently at the strait. Very few have dared to pass. Among them was Iron Maiden, which broadcast a Chinese signal and Chinese ownership. Similarly free passage is enjoyed by sugar transport ships linked to Chinese and Iranian interests. One could say that the real “pass” through the strait is not maritime but geopolitical. If you write “Made in China,” you pass. The case highlights an awkward reality for the West. While Europe and the United States see nearly one-fifth of the world’s energy supply almost freezing and prices soaring, Beijing maintains an open line with Tehran. Tehran’s message is simple: friends pass through; the rest either wait or take the risk. Thus, in a conflict that increasingly resembles a global power game, the toughest “passage” is not musical but maritime—and Iron Maiden proved that in today’s international landscape the right flag at the stern is enough.

Drone passed…extremely close to a ship of Giannis Dragnis in the Arabian Gulf
At the Economist Shipping Summit, Giannis Dragnis, CEO of Golden Port Group, caused a stir with a worrying testimony: a drone nearly collided with one of the company’s ships in the Arabian Gulf, highlighting serious security gaps in a critical maritime artery. “A comprehensive protection system is required for the safe passage of ships,” the Greek shipowner stressed, explaining that the region still has a long way to go before achieving even basic protection. Despite efforts, risks remain, but an organized framework would at least allow more controlled passages. He then spoke more broadly about the challenges shipping faces today, reminding that trade flows do not stop: “At the end of the day, trade does not disappear. It simply finds different routes.”

Kousta doubles investment in bulk carriers using a lesser-known Chinese shipyard
Giannis Kousta is moving with a strategy that combines aggressive expansion with the search for new shipbuilding yards. According to the latest annual report, the company doubled its orders for Newcastlemax bulk carriers at a Chinese shipyard previously unknown for building such vessels, Panjin Dajin Offshore Engineering Co. This move clearly shows the need for Greek companies to find alternative solutions in a shipbuilding market that has become congested due to excessive demand. The choice of a yard that previously built heavy-lift and deck transport vessels—designed to carry extremely large and heavy cargo and wind turbine equipment—suggests that Danaos is willing to take risks in order to secure its new ships while maintaining financial discipline. The four Newcastlemax vessels, each 300 meters long with a carrying capacity of 200,000 tons, cost about $300 million in total—approximately $75 million each. Delivery is scheduled for 2028, giving the company time to integrate the new vessels into its fleet in a planned manner. At the same time, Danaos continues its traditional investment in containerships, ordering new vessels from well-known shipyards such as CSSC Huangpu Wenchong, strengthening its position in the container market and bringing its fleet to more than 100 ships once deliveries are completed. The company combines purchases of second-hand bulkers with new orders, demonstrating flexibility and strategic thinking.

Titan is paying the price of the energy crisis on the stock exchange
Last week left a deep “mark” on the Athens Stock Exchange board, with Titan starring in one of the most violent corrections of recent years. It recorded losses exceeding 11% on a weekly basis and fell below the psychological threshold of €50, closing at €46.5 last Friday and reaching a three-month low. The stock is under double pressure. On the one hand, as an energy-intensive industry it is vulnerable to the rally in oil and natural gas prices caused by the war in the Middle East. Every dollar added to the price of a barrel erodes the profit margins of its factories. On the other hand, uncertainty in international transport and turbulence in supply chains create “clouds” over its export model. Also at the center of attention are developments around CO₂ emission allowances in the European Union, since Titan is directly exposed to fluctuations in the cost of emissions. Analysts note that the decline also serves as a prime opportunity for profit-taking. The stock had come from an impressive rally at the beginning of 2026, having reached historic highs in the €58–59 range. This abrupt correction is considered by many to be a necessary release of pressure, despite the fact that the group’s fundamentals remain strong. Despite the shock, signals from international firms remain positive. Citi, in a recent report, raised the target for the stock to €70, even seeing potential up to €78.2 in its optimistic scenario.

Jumbo at an 18-month low
The escalation of tensions in the Middle East is creating a suffocating framework for the Athens Stock Exchange, with Jumbo being one of the major “victims” of geopolitical uncertainty. The stock slipped on Friday to €23.34, marking an 18-month negative record, as it closed at the lowest point since early September 2024. At the same time, it has lost the support level of €24 despite the strong fundamentals announced by management. Jumbo is one of the most vulnerable links in the retail sector to the crisis in Iran, with investors focusing on the supply chain. Although the management of Apostolos Vakakis rushed to reassure the market, stating that transport problems remain “manageable” due to pre-agreed terms, the market board is pricing in the worst-case scenario: a prolonged rise in freight costs and possible product shortages. The timing is particularly critical, as Jumbo announced a 6% increase in sales for the first two months of 2026. However, the market focused on the slowdown in February (+3%), which was partly attributed to the change in the date of Carnival but also to the slowdown in consumption due to the surrounding… wartime atmosphere. In addition, the group’s presence in Israel—through partner Fox Group—is a source of uncertainty, as the recent expansion with a fifth store in the region coincides with the broader escalation. All this is happening while the distribution of the extraordinary cash payment of €0.5 is expected this month, with the ex-dividend date on March 23 and payment to follow on March 30.

The Greek drone industry begins its tests
Not once or twice but four times during 2026, the Greek Armed Forces will turn Greek land and sea areas into testing grounds for new unmanned air defense systems. Behind these exercises lies the first serious attempt for Greece to develop a domestic drone defense industry with international ambitions. The timelines are now known. In May, the first cycle will be carried out by the Navy. In June, the second cycle begins under the Hellenic National Defense General Staff, with the three service branches at the table and a focus on electronic warfare conditions—the most realistic and demanding scenario. In October, the third cycle of naval tests will begin. In November, the fourth cycle will take place with the Army and UxVs supporting ground operations. Four cycles, three military branches, one major opportunity for any Greek technology player that has something worthwhile to demonstrate. The architect of this strategy is the Hellenic Center for Defense Innovation (ELKAK), which is called upon to play a dual role. It will institutionalize a public-private partnership framework and at the same time act as the “treasurer” with access to resources from the EIB, SAFE, and the European Defence Agency. More than eight calls for expressions of interest are already open, with subsidies of up to €20 million per project.

Airlines are suffering
BBC television presented an extremely interesting chart—not for oil prices in general but for aviation fuel prices. For many months (October, November, December, January, February), the price of jet fuel in northwestern Europe fluctuated calmly around $700–$800 per ton. It was a flat line, almost boring. Suddenly we saw an explosive increase to $1,528 per ton on March 5, 2026—almost doubling within just a few days. The cause was, of course, the U.S.–Israeli strikes on Iran and the extremely limited traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. This narrow passage, only 33 kilometers wide, carries 20% of the world’s oil production. When it “closes,” airlines suffer, as jet fuel represents on average 20–25% of their total costs. This situation is creating major turbulence with an uncertain outlook, not only in the immediate period but also in view of the upcoming start of summer flight schedules from late March to early April. In addition to fuel costs, airlines also face closed airspaces, security issues, and in the longer term uncertainty about public attitudes toward travel in general. There are also immediate side effects on connections to other destinations. A characteristic example is IndiGo, the large Indian airline that began direct Athens–India flights for the first time on January 23—a historic move for Athens International Airport “Eleftherios Venizelos”—with promising load factors and high expectations for both leisure and business travel between the two countries. The routes had barely started when they were temporarily suspended in recent days due to the Middle East crisis. Planning has restarted but with difficulties, as is reasonable under these conditions. At least regarding India (since for Middle Eastern destinations it is obvious), this headache was avoided in the case of the domestic airline AEGEAN, where—given the delays in deliveries of new aircraft from Airbus—the plan to start flights to India had already been postponed even before these events.

Fund managers change strategy
This year began optimistically. Analysts expected at least three interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve (especially with its new leadership in the summer) and also had a quiet hope that President Trump, ahead of the midterm elections, would create a favorable environment for stock markets with lower inflation due to cheaper oil. Things have changed, and so have investment strategies. Analysts no longer expect a 0.75% reduction in dollar interest rates but only about 0.35% at best. Oil is heading toward $100 per barrel, affecting inflation and disposable income. On Friday, the February payroll report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics showed an unexpected loss of 92,000 jobs during the month. Economists had expected an increase of 60,000 jobs. The unemployment rate rose to 4.4% from 4.3%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 404 points or 0.8%, while the S&P 500 declined 0.9%. The Nasdaq Composite closed the day down 1%. News of a potentially weakening economy together with the inflationary threat from rising energy prices triggered alarms and concern about stagflation—meaning low growth and large price increases in everyday life. The same climate prevails in Europe and Japan.

Bombs don’t scare markets. But oil does?
Morgan Stanley Wealth Management published a useful table showing how—and for how long—markets have been affected in the past by major geopolitical crises. It records 23 major geopolitical shocks (from the Korean War to the invasion of Ukraine) and shows that the S&P 500 stock index returned on average to its upward trajectory within a few months. Three months later: +2.8%. Six months later: +5.9%. Twelve months later: +8.4%. An exception to this general rule was the Yom Kippur War (1973), the surprise attack by Egypt and Syria against Israel on October 6, 1973—the day of the most important Jewish religious holiday (Yom Kippur, the “Day of Atonement”). Arab OPEC countries, angered by U.S. support for Israel, imposed an oil embargo on the United States and Western Europe. The price of oil quadrupled within a few months, the West ran out of fuel, a global recession followed, and inflation skyrocketed. The S&P 500 lost 43.2% within 12 months. That war lasted 20 days; its economic consequences lasted a decade. In all other geopolitical crises, the impact on the economy and stock markets was short-lived and limited in depth. For markets to be seriously shaken, crude oil prices must rise 75–100% on an annual basis, exceeding $100 per barrel. If these conditions are not met, geopolitical turmoil remains harmless for portfolios.

Huge “hunger” for memory
The number is shocking: 288 gigabytes. That is the RAM memory required by a single Nvidia Rubin artificial intelligence processor—the next generation of chips that the company of Jensen Huang will launch in the second half of 2026. Today a next-generation smartphone has only 12GB of RAM. A powerful gaming computer reaches about 32GB. The famous H100, the AI processor that revolutionized the market four years ago, operated with 80GB. The new Rubin processor, however, requires 3.6 times more memory than the H100, nine times more than a powerful PC, and more than 23 times the memory of a latest-generation smartphone. Each Rubin GPU requires 288GB of HBM4 memory—about six times more than typical graphics cards on the market. The market is changing. The demand for more memory is not coming from individual buyers. Tech giants with massive cash reserves—such as Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and Meta—are spending billions of dollars to acquire NVL72 systems, which combine 72 Rubin processors in a single server. This means that a huge portion of global HBM4 memory production is being secured by only a few players. SK Hynix and Samsung began mass production of HBM4 in the fourth quarter of 2025, but yields remain low. Rubin reflects a new economy that has decided intelligence is the most valuable commodity: it requires massive memory—and it pays accordingly.