Since it began, the crisis in the Middle East has raised concerns about possible price increases in energy and basic goods. However, the Greek market appears better prepared today than in previous years, while the government has already activated measures aimed at keeping prices under control and limiting the burden on households. A key tool is the imposition of price caps in critical sectors, such as energy and basic food categories. Through these mechanisms, the aim is to prevent any potential increases from being passed directly on to store shelves and consumers’ pockets.

In this context, through a legislative act, the government has implemented emergency measures for the fuel market and basic goods, with the aim of preventing profiteering amid international turmoil. In his statements, Development Minister Takis Theodorikakos recently stressed that international uncertainty is weighing on the economy and increasing pressure on the supply chain, which in turn is intensifying inflationary pressures, especially on essential goods. As he noted, the ministry has already stepped up inspections, carrying out around 1,500 checks at fuel stations. In addition, under the legislative act, a cap is being imposed on profit margins for basic necessities and food. According to the minister, from the moment the measure came into force, no product may be sold with a higher profit margin than the one in effect in 2025. The measure will remain in force until June 30, when it will be reassessed to determine which products it will continue to cover.

Fines for violations can reach up to €5 million, and the measure applies to wholesale trade, supermarkets, industry, and product distribution companies. “It is a strict measure, but the circumstances make it fair,” Mr. Theodorikakos said, calling on businesses to show social responsibility. “Profit is legitimate; profiteering is not,” he added.

In light of the government’s new measures to address possible price hikes due to international developments in the Middle East, the Hellenic Super Market Association (ESE) issued a statement confirming that its members “consistently stand by Greek households, both over time and during extraordinary periods of international uncertainty, keeping prices stable for the benefit of Greek consumers.”

Among other things, the statement says that “the experience of recent years and the sector’s quick reflexes during periods of intense geopolitical crises and economic pressure show that, regardless of horizontal measures imposed by the state, supermarkets operate daily with transparency, responsibility, care, and respect toward the millions of Greek consumers they serve across the country.”

The ESE cites data from IELKA, according to which average inflation in supermarkets stood at 1.29% in 2025, despite the lifting of the cap on gross profit margins in July of the same year. According to the association, this low rate proves that “both healthy competition and the smooth functioning of the market keep prices low, with benefits that are immediate and tangible for citizens-consumers.”

A shift in the psychology of everyone involved in the market

But how does the crisis in the Middle East affect the market and the Greek consumer? As Georgios Baltas, Professor in the Department of Marketing & Communication at the Athens University of Economics and Business and Director of Graduate Studies, explains to the Athens-Macedonian News Agency, “while Greece does not import fuels from Iran, commodities such as oil and natural gas are priced on international markets. When a strategic point in the supply network is disrupted, the disturbance spreads internationally. According to estimates, the Middle East conflict has already led to the suspension of about one-fifth of global fuel production, and markets have already reacted accordingly.”

According to Mr. Baltas, it is therefore predictable that the first and fastest impact of the Middle East conflict on the Greek consumer will be higher fuel prices. While the rise in oil prices so far is comparable to that caused by previous Middle East crises, the impact on natural gas prices is more intense. “This has consequences for electricity generation and heating, given that natural gas is an important factor in the energy mix. It should be noted, however, that energy prices have historically shown strong volatility, with sharp rises and falls. Therefore, they may quickly return to pre-conflict levels if the conflict ends in time,” he notes.

According to Mr. Baltas, the impact of the conflict on food costs comes with a delay, but it may ultimately prove more persistent than increases in energy costs. As he explains, there are three main transmission channels through which the Iranian crisis affects food markets.

The first is transportation costs. Freight rates and insurance premiums rise, adding significant costs to transport, which are ultimately incorporated into commodity prices.

The second transmission channel is higher energy costs, which strongly affect agricultural and industrial production and at the same time make food transportation more expensive at every link in the supply chain.

The third transmission channel is fertilizers and related agricultural inputs. Rising prices for these could lead to lower crop yields, higher production costs for agricultural products, and, consequently, higher food prices for consumers.

According to Mr. Baltas, these three channels of transmission are hitting the Greek consumer in an already burdened environment, as the large cumulative price increases of the 2021–2025 period have already created high price levels that are putting serious pressure on household budgets.

“Forecasts about the course of the conflict are uncertain and go beyond the purpose of our discussion. The only certain thing is that the scale of the effects on consumers and prices depends mainly on the duration of the conflict,” Mr. Baltas told ANA-MPA, adding: “If we deliberately simplify a complex situation, we can distinguish two scenarios: the good and the bad. In the good scenario, there is a rapid de-escalation within weeks, with noticeable but temporary and reversible effects. Fuel gradually returns to pre-conflict prices, which it should be noted were relatively low. Consumer goods prices rise slightly, but soon stabilize or return to pre-Iran crisis levels. In the bad scenario, we have a prolonged conflict with more serious consequences. In this adverse scenario, energy costs rise and remain at very high levels, making transportation and heating extremely expensive for consumers. The three channels we mentioned earlier transmit the crisis to food markets. Gradually, all sectors affecting consumers are impacted, as higher production and operating costs for businesses trigger major chain price increases that spread throughout the Greek economy.”

Focusing on the role of the psychological factor, he notes that “in practice, it is more central than we usually think.”

As he explains, “a prolonged and expanded conflict changes the psychology of everyone involved in the market and causes various side effects. For example, concern about the availability of goods or about major upcoming price increases leads consumers to make precautionary purchases, which can partly function as a self-fulfilling prophecy.

At the same time, widespread uncertainty shapes more cautious consumer behavior aimed at protecting available resources and reducing spending, in an effort to regain a sense of control. In other cases, market players may be swept up by excessive concern and suspend investments or business moves. Such psychological reactions on the business side broaden the economic footprint of the crisis. Finally, we know that major crises can trigger speculative psychology and opportunistic behavior. For this reason, self-restraint, composure, and institutional oversight of the market are needed so that the consequences of the Middle East conflict are not amplified domestically by psychological factors.”

The new profile of the Greek consumer

At the same time, state intervention is considered crucial, as the disposable income of Greek households has already been squeezed in recent years by high inflation. The period of major increases in food and energy prices has left a strong mark on consumer habits, shaping a different profile for the Greek consumer. Specifically, purchases are now characterized by greater caution and restraint. Consumers systematically compare prices, turn more often to private-label products, and look for offers before making purchases. At the same time, consumption in certain categories of non-essential goods has been reduced, as priority is given to the household’s basic needs.

Particularly in the food sector, behavior has changed noticeably. Greek households plan their shopping more carefully, avoid waste, and choose products based on both price and quantity. Supermarket chains are recording increased demand for lower-cost options, confirming the shift toward more “conservative” consumption patterns.

According to a Circana survey titled Consumer trends in Greece: Financial pressure, new habits, new opportunities, recently presented at an event by the Hellenic Institute of Sales, consumers are living in uncertainty, are especially cautious with their spending, and are turning more toward essential goods and cheaper choices. More specifically, only 1 in 5 consumers feels financially secure, while around 25% of households say they struggle to meet monthly obligations. At the same time, only half of workers say they feel secure in their jobs, a factor that directly affects consumer behavior.

Financial pressure is leading to more careful purchasing decisions. According to the survey, 60% of consumers say they buy products mainly when they are on offer, while 43% turn more to private-label products as a cheaper solution. Meanwhile, 57% have reduced purchases of non-essential items, 52% compare prices and usually buy the cheapest brand, 29% buy smaller quantities or shop less often, 21% have stopped buying certain products, and 10% say they buy more frozen goods instead of fresh ones.

At the same time, there has been a significant shift in out-of-home consumption habits. 84% of consumers say they have reduced spending on dining out or entertainment outside the home, as well as on clothing, shoes, and accessories, while the average frequency of outings is around 5.9 days per month. Entertainment remains a need, but cost is holding it back. In terms of going-out preferences, restaurants and tavernas account for 60%, cafés and bars 50%, and travel and excursions 46%.

At the same time, despite the pressure, the survey identifies opportunities for companies, such as the growth of private label, an emphasis on “value products,” offers, promotional actions, and solutions that facilitate at-home consumption. In other words, companies that adapt to a value-for-money logic can gain market share.

According to Circana, these developments are shaping a new landscape in the retail market, in which the price-quality relationship, promotional activity, and affordable choices are becoming increasingly important for consumers.