The temporary ceasefire in the Middle East war offers a small “breather” to the global shipping and energy market, but does not remove the deep distortions caused by the conflict. As three analysts speaking to newmoney.gr point out, the situation is far from normal, with risks remaining active and markets operating under heightened uncertainty.

EOS Risk Group’s Alketas Drosos stresses that the temporary ceasefire allows passage through the Strait of Hormuz, but not in terms of normality. Navigation is taking place in coordination with the Iranian authorities (IRGC), while references to “technical restrictions” suggest limited capacity and prioritization mechanisms.

While there is no formal ban on Western-interest vessels, the significant backlog in the Persian Gulf is expected to lead to delays and selective transit, with possible priority given to vessels linked to Iran or politically neutral states.

Early indications are that traffic remains limited, particularly on Iranian trade-related vessels. Overall, the situation does not represent a return to normalcy, but a controlled pause, with the ceasefire remaining fragile and the possibility of an immediate resumption of the ceasefire being maintained by all sides.

In the same vein, INTERMODAL’s Yannis Parganas stresses that the agreed two-week ceasefire does not constitute a substantial normalization of the oil market; it merely allows for the temporary unloading of some of the blocked cargoes that have been trapped in the Persian Gulf. The immediate drop in Brent and WTI mainly reflects the reappearance of these barrels on the physical market, not a restoration of supply.

The critical point is that the supply chain remains disrupted, requiring available ballast tankers for reloading, evacuation of accumulated onshore stocks, and time to restore production, particularly in Iraq, where shut-ins are difficult to reverse within two weeks. For crude shipping, this means that tonnage is only partially released, while commercial transit risk, war risk insurance, and the possibility of tolls from Iran continue to deter new cargo commitments on an FOB basis. Consequently, the market is not entering a normalization phase but a prolonged period of logistic drag, with flows remaining uneven, available inventories eroding, and prices maintaining an upward, structural underpinning.

For his part, Dimitris Roumeliotis of Xclusiv Shipbrokers points out that the truce is acting more as a “technical de-escalation” than a strategic de-escalation. As he says, the tanker market continues to value high geopolitical risk, which is reflected in both premiums and charterer behaviour. The temporary reopening of flows is not sufficient to restore confidence, as shipowners remain wary of new commitments in high-risk areas.