Hello, we’re just a breath away from the next long weekend—the May Day one (a “labor” holiday thanks to…lounging around and excursions)—and hopefully the weather keeps up like this, because it already feels like an early summer. Otherwise, the government, after some time, had a good weekend for itself thanks to Macron, who really “treated” Greece with his presence and his kind words. He also strongly boosted Mitsotakis, from the interview at the Roman Agora with Papachelas—set against a truly impressive backdrop—to the dinner at the Presidential Mansion, the visit to the “Kimon,” and then the interview at the Niarchos Foundation. The essence of the visit is the reaffirmation of the strong Franco-Greek alliance, in the sense that Europe’s most powerful military machine would stand by us if something were to happen. That is no small thing, nor was it ever a given in the past, as we know, so it matters that the French President states it explicitly. Some discussions taking place about new arms procurements—submarines, etc.—are not yet mature. I also asked a serious military source of mine about the “exchange” of Mirage jets with Rafales that has been discussed, so that we could send the older aircraft to Ukraine, but I got a rather negative response. “We have a big price gap with the manufacturers of the new Rafales, and we also don’t want to provoke the Russians that much,” was the answer I received.

Defense and artificial intelligence

In general, there is an open, wide-ranging discussion with the French on defense projects. Beyond the prospect of equipment exchanges, however, the upcoming interest lies in cooperation on the use of artificial intelligence in the field of defense. Neither Athens nor Paris wants to be more specific right now about where exactly they will collaborate, but the thinking is already quite mature.

Macron’s bicycle and Mitsotakis’ sneakers

Every visit like Macron’s to our country includes gifts. I looked into it and learned that the French President brought our own leader a bicycle, since Mitsotakis is known for heading to the mountains and racking up kilometers. On the other hand, Mitsotakis gave Macron a pair of athletic shoes from the Greek company Ena Athletics, owned by Alex Latsis, which have made a big impression in the sportswear market since their debut.

And the polls?

I asked another source from the Prime Minister’s office about the opinion polls, which are expected around Wednesday or Thursday, and I was told: “We’re waiting to measure Monday and Tuesday as well, to see whether the Pierrakakis measures and the Mitsotakis–Macron appearance recovered the 2 points the government lost over the past month.” From what I hear, something did happen, and the drop has been reduced to about 1 to 1.5 points. But I paid more attention to the source who told me: “This period we’re measuring isn’t a good one, because we’re waiting for the party of Tsipras and Karystianou; after the announcements, we’ll have a clearer picture.”

The Pier family and Macron

There were many snapshots from Macron’s visit to Athens. I’ll highlight a few, starting with one from the dinner at the Presidential Mansion, where the French Finance Minister Lescure took Pierrakakis’ wife, Dimitra, by the hand, led her to Macron, and introduced her to the President. Macron kissed her hand with his characteristic Gallic courtesy and said: “Thank you, madam, for… sharing your husband with Europe!” Among the business figures who spoke with Macron, Theodoros Kyriakou seemed the most at ease with him, likely because they had met recently, as Kyriakou is preparing to open a Repubblica office in Paris. In general, Emmanuel was very talkative with his fellow dinner guests.

Pier (2)

The close relationship between Pierrakakis and Lescure became evident as the finance ministers began their program earlier, inaugurating the Euronext technology center in Athens early Saturday morning. Immediately afterward, they spoke with students from two Franco-Hellenic schools, with Pierrakakis impressing with his fluent French. For those who know, Lescure is one of the most prominent ministers in the French government, with a very broad portfolio. Staying a bit longer on the Greek Finance Minister, it also made an impression that President Macron revealed France had voted for him for the Eurogroup presidency, describing it as a tangible recognition of Greece.

Mylonakis

Saturday was generally a day of good news for the government camp, as a ray of optimism also appeared regarding the health of Giorgos Mylonakis from Evangelismos Hospital. Everyone’s wishes are with him and his family. The Prime Minister’s wife, Mareva, was also discharged and went almost directly home to welcome Brigitte Macron.

Intervention on identification in social media is maturing

Two or three months ago, government spokesman Marinakis had said something needed to be done legally to address anonymous abuse and trolls on social media. I noticed that at the Delphi Forum, Mitsotakis referred to this, and again in his interview at the Roman Agora with Macron. Hopefully we’ll see something come of it, with broader support as well.

Samaras with Farantouris

A friend of mine called to say he saw Farantouris dining in Loutraki yesterday with Samaras. The man has an appetite for work, and it’s to his credit that he’s pursuing it everywhere.

PPC: Big wallets in the capital increase and the stock’s strong comeback

PPC’s surprise announcement to implement a €4 billion capital increase initially caused volatility, but the stock showed strong reflexes, turning a day of heavy pressure into a display of strength. Specifically, PPC started the session with a drop of about -9%. The decline was attributed to the market’s initial uncertainty over the size of the increase and the wait for the offering price. However, it then showed significant “defenses.” Buyers quickly absorbed supply, limiting losses to -2.84% and closing at €18.1. The stock’s ability to recover from -9% and stabilize above the psychological €18 mark shows institutional investors’ confidence in the group’s long-term prospects. Trading volume was massive, reaching €96.8 million, representing 34% to 35% of total market turnover. As for what comes next, the capital increase—set to be completed by the end of May 2026—is not just a capital boost but the “fuel” for the new Strategic Plan 2030, totaling €24 billion. This message has reached major international investors, and information suggests strong institutional players and large portfolios will participate. The increase will be carried out through private placement abroad via accelerated book building and a public offering in Greece. Reports indicate total costs of the mega-increase could reach €340 million; the process will be completed very quickly, within 3–4 days, with expectations of significant oversubscription. With this move, PPC is evolving into an even larger energy force, with equity of €9 billion, EBITDA of €4.6 billion by 2030, and net profits exceeding €1.2 billion.

The US–EU gap is structural

From 2008 to 2023, the US grew by 87%. Europe by 13.5%. At these rates, Europe will need 43 years to double its per capita output; the US, 20. This is not a cycle—it’s structural, said Alpha Bank CEO Vassilis Psaltis at the Delphi Forum. The problem is not money. European households save nearly twice as much as American ones. But €300 billion leaves for the US every year—not because Europeans don’t want to invest in Europe, but because Europe doesn’t give them the means. The solution, he concluded, has a name—and remains in the drawer: Banking Union, Capital Markets Union, Savings and Investments Union. Three tools that together can mobilize the capital Europe already has but does not utilize.

The Olympia CEO’s “bill” and Chinese batteries

There are moments in public discussions when, behind careful wording and attempts to “square the circle,” real truths emerge and messages are conveyed that are not clichés. That’s how Olympia CEO Andreas Athanasopoulos spoke yesterday at the Franco-Hellenic forum. Behind the discussion of green transition and strategic autonomy, he put the real bill on the table: who produces, at what cost, and who ultimately wins. He said plainly what many in the European market discuss privately: that Europe lost the battery race to China because they invested for decades with planning—raw materials, know-how, and state support—while here many believed the game could be won with delayed programs and a few subsidies. Simply put, when one side builds an ecosystem and the other writes reports, the result is predictable. More interesting, however, was the second part of his intervention, where he explained that today’s real problem is not just batteries but energy costs. With electricity in Europe up to 2.5 times more expensive than in the US and China, the bill for industry is already negative. When production in competing economies operates at such lower prices, European industry is effectively entering the game already one goal down. And when it is more profitable to produce outside Europe and sell within Europe, then the bill has already arrived. The Greek dimension was also present. Athanasopoulos added that there are companies ready to invest in energy storage but still encounter the familiar mix of slow procedures and an unclear regulatory framework. According to him, there is no clear definition for industrial storage, approvals are not fast, procedures remain vague, and mature investments are delayed.

Cenergy: If Europe always chooses the cheapest price, one day it will wake up without factories

In a similar tone, the CFO of the long-internationalized Cenergy Holdings spoke in the same discussion. Alexandros Benos essentially said something simple but uncomfortable for many in Brussels: Europe cannot demand a strong industrial base while at the same time buying everything based solely on the lowest price. When you are talking about cables, interconnections, energy infrastructure, and critical projects, you are not just buying products. You are buying security of supply, speed of delivery, know-how, and an industrial base. In plain terms: if you keep choosing the cheapest offer every time, at some point you will wake up without factories. The second point of his intervention was even more interesting. He stressed that European industries compete with companies outside Europe that often have cheaper energy, state support, lower compliance costs, and easier access to financing. The CFO of Cenergy Holdings also added a second dimension: uncertainty. When a project takes years to be licensed, when decisions drag on, and when no one knows when a pipeline of projects will move forward, then no serious industry invests comfortably in new production lines, personnel, and capacity. The market wants visibility, not promises. Benos described a Greece that is gradually moving away from the role of the periphery and entering the map as a strategic hub for Southeastern Europe and the Eastern Mediterranean. With interconnections, new projects, cables, energy corridors, and industrial production, the country is acquiring a role that a few years ago sounded excessive. It was no coincidence that he mentioned Cenergy’s figures—investments, a strong backlog of projects, and international presence—as proof that when the right framework exists, Greek industry not only endures but grows.

€2 billion in investments in Mykonos and Santorini unlocked by the new Tourism Spatial Plan

After at least three years of “processing,” Greece will finally acquire the Special Spatial Planning Framework for Tourism, which will be announced in the coming days. Immediately afterward, a separate spatial plan is expected for Mykonos and Santorini, which are certainly two of the most saturated and at the same time most investment-attractive destinations in the country. Framework investments are estimated to exceed €2 billion. Hotel groups, investment funds, and private equity schemes have already identified locations and evaluated investment opportunities, but remain with pen in hand, visibly frustrated by years of uncertainty. The new spatial plan will create real legal certainty, reduce the uncertainty that has long acted as a deterrent to major investment plans, and establish clear rules. The central axis of the new framework is the transition to a tourism model with a lower environmental footprint, with rational management of natural resources. Special provisions are included for small islands, short-term rentals, and the strengthening of special forms of tourism, while the framework establishes three main criteria for determining tourism development per area. A sector that produces more than 20% of GDP cannot plan long-term investments without knowing where it is allowed to build, what it can construct, and under what terms. A decade without a compass is not offset by a Joint Ministerial Decision, which in any case is a good start.

Waiting for the SSM in bonus mode

Bank executives, from senior to mid- and lower-level, are currently in “bonus mode,” as what has been announced is now a matter of time before being paid out. Bonuses range from 120% to 180% of fixed salaries, most of them given in the form of free shares. On the other hand, the SSM has not yet approved the dividends of credit institutions, but since this is a formal procedure, it is expected to be completed around the end of May. However, general assemblies are proceeding with approvals, always subject to the supervisor’s decision. The general meeting of Piraeus Bank has already taken place, while the other systemic banks follow: Eurobank on April 28, National Bank on April 30, and Alpha Bank on June 26, 2026.

What Hilton says about the Ilisian

David Kelly describes the new Conrad Athens The Ilisian as one of the “most important developments for the Hilton group” in Europe, calling it “the return of an iconic hotel with deep significance for the city, Greece, and Hilton.” The Senior Vice President for Continental Europe of the Hilton group noted on social media that when the hotel first opened as Hilton Athens in 1963, it was “the first major international hotel in Greece and a symbol of the modern face of the city,” so its reappearance now as the debut of the Conrad Hotels & Resorts brand in Greece (one of Hilton’s most prominent brands) is truly special. The transformation, carried out in collaboration with partners at TEMES, is one of Hilton’s most significant developments in Europe and reflects both the ongoing renewal of Athens as an urban destination and the growing importance of Greece in Hilton’s portfolio, which now numbers more than 50 hotels. It is noted that in 2020, just before the Athens Hilton closed for renovation, the group had only one hotel, and now it has reached double digits—either through hotels connected with Small Luxury Hotels (close to 40 across Greece) or through agreements between owners and Hilton brands (Curio Collection by Hilton, Tapestry Collection by Hilton, Hilton Garden Inn). It is also noted that, in addition to the Conrad in Athens, which reopened on April 23 at the historic property on Vasilissis Sofias Avenue, a second Conrad will also operate this year in Corfu, the Ionian Sea’s premier destination.

Banks in wait-and-see mode while shipping enjoys golden times

In global shipping, there is a paradox. Increased geopolitical and economic uncertainty is leading several financial institutions to adopt a more conservative stance toward shipping finance, despite the fact that the market is in a phase of strong profitability. The intense volatility characterizing the current environment is traditionally considered a period of opportunity for shipping. However, part of the banking sector appears hesitant to increase its exposure, under pressure from broader macroeconomic risks such as inflation and slowing economic activity. By contrast, shipowners are capitalizing on the favorable market wave, with high returns and increased liquidity supporting expansion plans and fleet renewal, mainly through investments in more efficient and modern vessels. Nevertheless, the strong financial position of many shipping companies keeps the lending market competitive, with alternative sources of capital remaining active. The result is an environment where shipping is moving faster than its financial backing, creating a gap between investment appetite and credit policy.

The prosecutor’s next target in the Pizante case

Following the preliminary investigation conducted by the Directorate for Economic Crime Investigations (DEOE) into unjustified credits totaling €13.1 million against declared income of €217,000 for the period 2019–2022, in the case of Bluehouse Capital owned by Victor Pizante, the Athens Court of Appeal Prosecutor’s Office now appears to be turning its attention to a company that had so far remained in the shadows: Swindon. According to information, Swindon allegedly functioned as a mechanism through which funds were channeled to and from Bluehouse, managing transactions totaling at least €200 million. Notably, its General Director and sole employee was lawyer D.M., the same person who simultaneously acted as legal advisor to Bluehouse. This detail is precisely what appears to particularly interest the prosecution. The legal question is whether Swindon meets the criteria of a “Controlled Foreign Company” (CFC) under Greek tax law. If this is confirmed, its profits should have been taxed in Greece, regardless of its offshore base.

Costamare’s bet with Cosco and the message to Wall Street

Costamare’s move to “lock in” 16 newly built containerships with long-term charters to COSCO Shipping is seen in the shipping market as much more than fleet expansion. For a company listed on the New York Stock Exchange, such moves are not made solely in terms of the shipping cycle but also with investors in mind. In practice, Costamare is choosing the “safe card”: long-term contracts, predictable cash flows, and cooperation with one of the world’s strongest players. On Wall Street, where volatility does not easily forgive risk, the message is clear: stability over “gambling” in the spot market. In other words, the company prefers to lock in revenue over time, even if that means potentially missing out on peak freight rates during boom periods. At the same time, the choice of COSCO is far from random. At a time when geopolitical balances increasingly affect global trade, aligning with a Chinese giant shows that major shipping players continue to build bridges where there is cargo and liquidity. In market circles, however, some also see a more “subtle” reading: Costamare is strengthening its profile as a reliable partner for major charterers, something that could prove critical in the next fleet renewal cycle.

The “Grand Lady” and the right timing in the tanker market

At a time when the tanker market is moving rapidly, Eastern Mediterranean Maritime (Eastmed), owned by Thanasis Martinos, made a move that is proving particularly well-timed. The Greek company purchased the VLCC Saiq (built in 2011) from Asyad Shipping for about $60 million and renamed it “Grand Lady.” At first glance, the price was considered normal for the vessel’s age. However, developments in the market—mainly due to the war in the Middle East—have led to increases in both freight rates and ship values. Today, the same VLCC is valued significantly higher, meaning Eastmed achieved a favorable purchase almost immediately. An important role in the deal is also played by the charters accompanying the vessel. The tanker already had secured employment through agreements with companies such as Mercuria and Oman Charter Company, ensuring immediate revenue for the new owner. Overall, this is a characteristic case where timing plays a decisive role. The Greek side acquired a ship that is already increasing in value, while the Omani side took advantage of the opportunity for profit and fleet renewal.

April, the stock market’s favorite month

This coming Thursday is the last trading session of April, which—once again this year, despite turbulence—has fully met market expectations. The FTSE 25 index has gained +7.55% so far in April, while the banking index has risen +11.72% during the month. Meanwhile, Euronext Athens is preparing for changes in the composition of the FTSE 25 index. CrediaBank has upgraded its investment profile, and its recent capital increase strengthens the chances of its inclusion in the index. On the other hand, the impressive rise of EYDAP, with a market capitalization above €1.06 billion, appears to be pushing out Sarantis, in a reshuffle that reflects the liquidity of the Greek stock market under bull market conditions. Last week, the General Index carried out a mild and respectable correction from recent highs, after three consecutive upward weeks, with relatively reduced trading value. Market capitalization remains close to €160 billion, and the 2,200-point level for the General Index seemed secure. The next—though not easy—target is the 2,300 level. At the same time, the mutual fund market reflects a quiet but steady shift in savings behavior across the country. Assets of Greek mutual funds exceeded €30 billion in April 2026, reaching a 22-year high, up from €6.1 billion in 2018. In Q1 2026, inflows remained positive at around €1 billion (€980.9 million), despite geopolitical turbulence, with international bond funds leading (€283 million). The Greek saver is slowly but steadily rediscovering the stock market.

Bally’s Intralot: Crossed the threshold of the capital increase fueled by Evoke

Bally’s Intralot, after a rally of 9 consecutive upward sessions, managed to surpass the psychological level of €1.1—the offering price of last October’s capital increase. In Friday’s session, the stock climbed 5%, with turnover of €13 million. Beyond new contracts recently secured by the company, what is attracting market interest is a potential deal for the acquisition of Evoke in the United Kingdom.

Markets and war

The Financial Times published two charts that tell a story in two acts. Before the war, Europe was leading. The Stoxx 600 index was at record highs at the end of February, outperforming the US S&P 500. After the outbreak of the war, the picture reversed dramatically. The war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz pushed oil prices to new highs and wiped nearly -5% off the Stoxx 600. By contrast, the S&P 500 not only held up but quickly outperformed Europe again. Last Friday, the S&P 500 rose +0.8% to a new record, while the Nasdaq, up +1.6%, reached its own all-time high. For Q1 2026, earnings growth of US-listed companies stands at 15.1% year-on-year, marking the sixth consecutive quarter of double-digit growth. 84% of companies reporting results beat expectations. For full-year 2026, analysts forecast earnings growth of 18.6% and revenue growth of 9.5%. The real question, however, is not “US or Europe.” It is whether current valuation levels make sense. The forward P/E of the S&P 500 stands at 20.9—higher than both the 5-year (19.9) and 10-year (18.9) averages. Wall Street constantly prices in the future. Estimates for earnings growth in Q2–Q4 2026 range between 20% and 22%. All this unfolds in an environment where three ECB officials warned that the war will increase eurozone inflation and reduce growth. The Fed faces similar mismatches between inflation and interest rates. Market resilience does not reflect macroeconomic certainty. The market’s bet is whether high-tech companies, $1.1 trillion in share buybacks, and massive structural demand for artificial intelligence can offset any geopolitical shock. This bet is not irrational—but it is not analysis either.

Mass layoffs at Meta, Microsoft, KPMG, Nike describe the new org chart of the AI era

Within the same week, four major corporate groups sent the same signal across different sectors of the economy. Meta announced cuts of around 8,000 jobs (about 10% of its workforce) while also closing about 6,000 open positions. Microsoft is offering voluntary exit programs to US employees for the first time. KPMG is reducing its audit partners in the US by about 10% (around 100 partners). Nike announced it is eliminating about 1,400 jobs, mainly in technology and operations. The common denominator is not just layoffs—it is restructuring. Companies are cutting operating costs, freezing or canceling hiring, compressing management layers, and reallocating investment capital toward artificial intelligence, seeking automation solutions, data centers, and more centralized technological models. The real story is that major corporations are redesigning their organizational structures around productivity in the AI era.

Powell’s swan song; the path opens for Warsh

Tomorrow and the day after, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Fed will meet. J.P. Morgan estimates that the Fed will not change dollar interest rates, in an environment where geopolitics and inflation leave little room for maneuver. This meeting is considered historic, as Jerome Powell’s customary press conference afterward is expected to be his last as Fed Chairman. According to the minutes of the March meeting, some Fed central bankers wanted to keep open the possibility of raising—rather than cutting—interest rates. Others pushed back expectations for rate cuts to “later in the future” due to inflation. The Fed’s dual mandate (inflation and employment) has turned into a contradiction: the war in the Middle East keeps crude oil near $100 per barrel, adding about 0.8 percentage points to inflation and subtracting 0.25 points from growth. The Fed’s “drama” continues in the Senate. President Trump’s nominee, Kevin Warsh, has long planned what he calls a “regime change” at the Fed. He wants to abolish forward guidance, revise the definition of inflation, and limit public statements by FOMC members. At his April 21 congressional hearing, he pledged to act as an “independent actor,” rejecting pressure for politically motivated rate cuts. The latest development is that Republican Senator Tillis has withdrawn his objections to Warsh’s nomination to the committee, after the Justice Department halted prosecutions against Powell.

Semiconductors are on fire

For the first time in history, semiconductor stocks represent 14% of the total capitalization of the US stock market. At the peak of the 2000 dot-com bubble, they reached 7%. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) recorded 18 consecutive upward sessions—the longest streak in its history—and has tripled over the past three years. Nvidia regained a $5 trillion market capitalization. The four largest hyperscalers are expected to spend around $700 billion on chip investments, while fears of shortages persist. Broadcom reported $8.4 billion in AI-related revenue in just the first quarter. Nvidia is buying equity stakes in GPU customers, those customers buy more GPUs, GPUs become collateral for borrowing, and borrowing finances the purchase of more GPUs. A feedback loop is forming, and the bond market has begun asking questions the equity market does not want to hear. The question is not whether semiconductors are overvalued. The question is whether demand for artificial intelligence can justify valuations that already exceed previous historical highs by 100%.