Oil extended its upward trend for a seventh consecutive session, as limited progress in talks to reopen the Strait of Hormuz continues to keep concerns high in global energy markets. At the same time, investors are closely watching central bank decisions and earnings from tech giants, in a period where geopolitical risks still weigh heavily on market sentiment.

Brent crude rose by more than 1%, surpassing $109 per barrel and reaching its highest level in the past three weeks. Meanwhile, U.S. crude WTI moved higher, nearing $97 per barrel.

The White House confirmed that U.S. officials are reviewing Tehran’s new proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, while maintaining Washington’s “red lines” for ending the war, which has now entered its eighth week.

According to White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt, Iran’s proposal means reopening the maritime corridor on the condition that the United States lifts the blockade and halts hostilities. However, it remains unclear whether U.S. President Donald Trump is willing to seriously consider the proposal, as he has made clear that any lifting of sanctions could only be discussed after a “100% complete agreement.”

Energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz—through which about one-fifth of global oil and LNG trade passes—remain severely disrupted. According to Andy Lipow of Lipow Oil Associates, around 20 million barrels per day of crude oil, fuels, and petrochemicals are directly affected by the crisis.

He warned that even if hostilities were to stop immediately, the market would need months to return to normal, due to the need for demining operations, clearing shipping congestion, and gradually restarting production and refining.

He estimated that it will take at least four to six months for the oil market to stabilize, and until then prices are likely to remain high as inventories fall to dangerously low levels.

“The longer the conflict lasts, the higher prices will go, especially as inventories approach critical operating levels,” he noted, adding that if the war were to end immediately, crude prices could fall by about $10 per barrel.

According to him, if no new diplomatic initiative emerges, WTI could move back toward $100 per barrel, while Brent could climb above $110.

Market nervousness and focus on central banks

Rising energy prices have dampened risk appetite in global equity markets. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index was largely unchanged, remaining close to levels seen when the U.S.-Israel war with Iran began in late February.

Despite the subdued mood, technology stocks continued to outperform. South Korea’s market rose by 1.1%, surpassing the United Kingdom to become the world’s eighth-largest stock market.

On Wall Street, S&P 500 futures posted slight gains, with the index heading toward its best monthly performance since 2020, as global markets have now recovered losses caused by the war, largely thanks to renewed investor interest in artificial intelligence.

Investors are now turning their attention to earnings from major tech companies, looking for signals on whether the recent rally can continue. On Wednesday, Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta Platforms report results, followed by Apple a day later.

At the same time, markets are closely monitoring central bank decisions. The Bank of Japan kept interest rates unchanged in a 6–3 vote, pushing the yen up by 0.2% against the dollar. Decisions from the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, and the central banks of the UK and Canada are also expected this week.

Although markets anticipate that rates will remain unchanged, investors are seeking signs of concern from officials such as Jerome Powell and Christine Lagarde over inflationary pressures caused by the new energy shock.