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“Red Maria,” Alexis’s dusks & SYRIZA’s money, the blue (permanent) secretary, PPC’s success story & the Holy Women’s Hermitage

The secret of the Hindenburg Indicator & the big business behind a visit

Newsroom May 19 04:24

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Hello, as I told you yesterday, we are entering a very interesting week, beginning with President Maria, who has already made her move and whom my malicious colleagues have started calling “Red Maria” — though not because she’s a die-hard Olympiacos supporter (maybe she is, but being from Thessaloniki, she looks more like someone bitter about football). There is a strong Russian element around her (even close to her), sprinkled with monasteries, anti-vaxxers, and members of Niki. My source told me she was asked about it and replied: “Let them talk about Russians and all that… we are patriots; we’ll discuss everything in detail on Thursday.” We await this anxiously; I imagine those in neighboring political spaces to Maria, such as Velopoulos and little Zoe, will also be waiting anxiously. One interesting detail about Maria K., however, is that by checking the GEMI registry you discover she maintains a small loss-making tourism company with a gentleman who has a very rich past and close ties to Russia. Mr. Giannis Moysidis “in 2011 was a non-executive member of the Board of Directors of the Russian State Satellite Services Provider NIS GLONASS (the Russian GPS system)” and was in fact the only non-Russian citizen there. Indeed.

Alexis at dusk
Leaving President Maria behind, we move to beloved Alexis, who, I’m told, after waiting a day for the Final Four excitement to cool down, will announce his party on Tuesday, May 26. The source says this will happen in Thiseio, at dusk — because our president is also a romantic. Just to be safe, the setup will be more of a semi-standing arrangement, so we don’t again have strange incidents involving balconies and chairs. There will be one and only one speaker: Alexis.

SYRIZA and the money…
In SYRIZA they are now thinking about their future in various ways, but there is another parameter in the equation: money. SYRIZA receives the state funding allocated to the official opposition, even though the amount was reduced after 2023 because of its electoral percentage. They manage their affairs with this money, and by virtue of being a political party they also possess media outlets. In particular, the party radio station Sto Kokkino 105.5 operates on the basis that SYRIZA is a party and therefore entitled to a license. I remind you that recently the Council of State blocked the transfer of the frequency that LAOS had been entitled to as a parliamentary party. Thus, while SYRIZA members may say they want to go with Tsipras, on the one hand Tsipras does not want them as a party, and on the other their obligations may lead them to do the unthinkable and run independently at least in the first election.

The ND secretary after Holy Spirit Monday
In New Democracy they are watching all these developments after the congress that PASOK held this past weekend. The unresolved issue remaining is that of the new party secretary, and I’m told Mitsotakis is having second thoughts in general. While it seemed that Giorgos Stylios was favored, Mitsotakis is re-examining his alternatives — even whether the secretary should be an MP. He will decide within the next 10 days, as the Political Committee that will appoint the secretary will convene after Holy Spirit Monday. One scenario currently in play is that the interim secretary Stelios Kontadakis may become permanent; although he is secretary for organizational matters, he also took over running the party after Skrekas’s resignation.

The briefing on Greek-Turkish relations
At the start of yesterday’s KYSEA meeting, whose main subject was defense procurement, Gerapetritis gave a broad briefing on the war in Iran, the Middle East, and Turkey, given that the neighboring country is signaling it will legislate the “Blue Homeland” doctrine. Obviously this does not please us, but to some extent it is expected after our own moves in the field involving drilling, Maritime Spatial Planning, and marine parks. Gerapetritis analyzed the situation with the logic that we should wait and see what emerges, since the leaks from Ankara are clearly intended to test the waters and gauge our reaction.

Papastergiou on drones
Since I’m still on the KYSEA topic, let me tell you that the session had one absentee, Plevris, who was at the MED9 Summit in Croatia, and one guest, Dimitris Papastergiou, who gave participants a detailed briefing on the National Drone Strategy that will begin to be implemented this year with a horizon extending to 2030.

Pierrakakis at the G7
Undoubtedly, the presence of a Greek representative at a G7 summit is not exactly common — in fact, it had never happened before yesterday. Pierrakakis made the debut Monday in Paris, where in his capacity as president of the Eurogroup he sat at the table with finance ministers and central bankers from the world’s seven largest economies. Although what is discussed in the room is not made public, I hear the agenda covered all current developments: from the Strait of Hormuz to Artificial Intelligence — all, naturally, in relation to the economy. The assessments made regarding the war, from what I heard, were not especially optimistic.

PPC raises the bar
And now to market news, beginning with the success story of PPC’s €5 billion capital increase. Demand is impressively high, to the point that they regret not having asked for more capital from the outset. Since that cannot be changed afterward, all indications point to an increase in the offering price of the new shares. Whereas the original plans set the upper price range at €18.5, the bar is now moving to €19.75. All of this also explains yesterday’s +2.38% rise in PPC’s share price — which closed at €20.22 — during a difficult stock market session.

Mylonas No. 1 (on the agreement with Allianz)
The timeline for the agreement with Allianz was presented by National Bank CEO P. Mylonas during a meeting with journalists. As he said, the lawyers are reviewing the relevant contract word by word, and he attributed the delay — among other things — to the fact that Allianz initially did not want to grant participation to National Bank, which is acquiring 30%. Allianz was chosen after a competitive process and was preferred not only because of its international weight in the sector, but also because of the technological systems it possesses, which will allow National Bank to utilize all the new and innovative products of the German group without delay. He said that Piraeus Bank has time until the end of the year to resolve the bankassurance issues created by its acquisition of Ethniki Asfalistiki, with the contract allowing support to be extended for an additional three months. Allianz products, he concluded, will be available through National Bank’s network in the first quarter of 2027, while he predicted the bank’s revenues from the partnership would increase from €20 million to €80 million.

Mylonas No. 2 (on acquisitions, cyberattacks, stablecoins, Saudi Arabia)
“We are looking,” was P. Mylonas’s answer to a question about a possible acquisition abroad by National Bank, clarifying that the interest concerns the entire spectrum of the financial sector — banks, mutual funds, wealth management, etc. This weekend, the National Bank CEO added, the bank’s new core banking system will be completed, an investment that makes National Bank the Greek bank with the newest and most modern IT system, adding that competitors’ systems are at least 30 years old. Elsewhere in his remarks, Mylonas said that cyberattacks are now a serious concern for the banking system, adding that a large-scale attack could even lead to a reshuffling of the banking market, with regulators imposing a merger if a bank is unable to respond to customer demands. He also said that National Bank is moving to participate in the Qivalis Venture consortium, made up of 12 major European banks, with the aim of issuing a euro-linked stablecoin. Regarding the license National Bank has requested from Saudi Arabian authorities, he said he is awaiting approval, that the goal is to participate alongside foreign banks in syndicated loans to major state enterprises, and that depending on developments the bank may shift its focus if necessary.

A trip and weddings worth €5 billion
Another bank CEO, Eurobank’s F. Karavias, was packing his bags yesterday as he departs today for Mumbai in order to inaugurate the bank’s branch there this coming Thursday. The President of the Republic of Cyprus, Nikos Christodoulides, will also attend, as the India–Middle East–Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) will be central to the visit. Eurobank is attempting to play a leading role in the trade agreements linked to this corridor, and for that reason it is activating India’s UPI payment system in Greece, making the country the first European state that will send remittances via UPI. Little needs to be said about India’s economic scale, as Eurobank’s CEO — speaking at the SETE general assembly — mentioned that annual spending on Indian weddings held abroad alone amounts to $5 billion.

Where there’s Giannis, there’s gold (the Bank of Chania’s Athens contacts)
It appears that Giannis Michos, executive advisor of the Cooperative Bank of Chania, is stepping into the spotlight. Especially now that the bank is obtaining a nationwide license, many things must change. It is recalled that the Bank of Greece gave the green light to the four cooperative banks of Karditsa, Epirus (which has already become a corporation), Chania, and Thessaly to obtain nationwide licenses. The Cooperative Bank of Chania, which will evolve into a corporation, is moving ahead under tight timelines imposed by the Bank of Greece in order to address its non-performing loan issue through asset management. After all, it owns significant property assets across many sectors and can use them to cover any capital shortfall created by the NPE reduction project. In this context, Michos is in Athens holding meetings with stakeholders and media representatives. It is noteworthy, however, that for the first time Giannis Michos appears to have the dominant voice on these matters over the bank’s chairman M. Marakakis.

Resilience despite the Middle East
For the first time in approximately 14 months, Aegean’s share price closed yesterday below €11 (€10.84), mainly because of concerns over the impact of the sharp rise in fuel costs and the effects of inflation on households, vacation expenses, etc. Today, after the close of the Athens Stock Exchange session, Aegean will announce its Q1 2026 results, a period that partly incorporates the impact of the war in Iran since hostilities began on February 28. Analysts nevertheless expect a strong set of results, with revenues increasing by 4.5% year-on-year to €320 million; EBITDA is expected at €46 million, up 5%, while the EBITDA margin is expected to remain essentially stable at 14.4%. However, during the quarter the stronger dollar will mainly affect the bottom line of the balance sheet. What demonstrates Aegean’s resilience, however, is that on an operational level the key indicators appear to be improving. Available seat kilometers (ASKs) are estimated at 4.3 million, up 4.9% year-on-year, while total available seats are expected to rise 3.8% to 4 million. Passenger traffic is expected to increase by 4.4% to 3.2 million passengers, with the load factor remaining resilient at 80.6%, unchanged compared to the same period last year. Aegean, meanwhile, does not miss opportunities and continues its strategy of network expansion with new international routes (Bari, Paphos, Rotterdam, and Casablanca) and domestic ones, new codeshare agreements with Air China, while the gradual resumption of flights to Tel Aviv, Riyadh, and Amman is progressively limiting the impact from temporary flight suspensions in the Middle East.

Bank of Cyprus: rise despite banking-sector pressure
Bank of Cyprus displayed remarkable reflexes during yesterday’s session, managing to return to upward momentum and putting an end to a streak of four consecutive declining sessions. The stock fully diverged from the prevailing mood in the sector, recording gains while domestic systemic banks were under pressure and posting losses. Through this rebound, the stock maintained contact with the historic €10 mark, a level that constitutes a strong psychological and technical threshold. The market performance is directly linked to the bank’s recent first-quarter financial results, which confirmed the preservation of high organic profitability and strong capital ratios. At the same time, the recent general assembly “sealed” the distribution of a significant dividend, functioning as a steady source of buying interest from institutional portfolios. For analysts, Bank of Cyprus’s ability to move independently and absorb sector shocks highlights the distinctive features of its investment narrative. Its attractive dividend yield and clear revenue visibility make it a sort of “safe haven” within the banking board. The maintenance of valuations near historic highs suggests that the stock remains among the top choices of international capital seeking stability and high returns.

When Greek shipowners read the world map first
There are periods when Greek-owned shipping seems to operate like an independent mechanism of geopolitical forecasting. Before governments decide on strategies, before international organizations decode the new balances, Greek ships have already changed course. 2025 was such a year, and 2026 is following in its footsteps with the war in the Persian Gulf. According to an interesting analysis by Lloyd’s List Intelligence, last year — with the Red Sea in flames because of the Houthis, the Suez Canal losing part of its commercial normality, and energy flows being rewritten from scratch — Greek shipowners proved that they remain perhaps the country’s most flexible and politically astute business sector. It is no coincidence that while major Western companies remained cautious, Greek-owned vessels gradually began returning to the Red Sea, weighing risk and profit differently. Nor is it accidental that increased activity in markets such as Saudi Arabia, India, or even Syria came long before the West had fully restored political comfort toward those regions. Greek shipping continues to be considered a critical factor not only for the economy but also for the country’s international influence. The numbers confirm it. Greek tankers benefited from the new geography of oil, while bulk carriers remained the unseen force behind global raw-material flows. Greek shipowners avoided flashy moves and preferred what they know best: changing position at the right moment, without noise. And perhaps therein lies the greatest political interest of the matter. At a time when Europe is seeking new strategic autonomy and the United States is redrawing its trade priorities, Greek-owned shipping appears to be acquiring a role far greater than its narrow business footprint.

The backstage of the next day at the ports
For years, Piraeus and Thessaloniki were treated more as competitors than as two links in the same national port chain. The new geo-economic reality, however, seems to be changing the landscape, and perhaps for the first time the country’s two major ports are being called upon to operate complementarily in a much larger game that extends beyond Greece’s borders. The presence of both ports at the recent Mare MED III Conference Athens 2026 was anything but accidental. Piraeus, with its special weight in international maritime transport, is attempting to secure a key role in the new trade corridors being shaped between Asia, the Middle East, and Europe. Against the backdrop of geopolitical reshuffling, pressure on traditional sea routes, and the discussion surrounding the IMEC (India–Middle East–Europe Corridor), the country’s largest port wants to remain a principal gateway into Europe. At the same time, Thessaloniki appears to be acquiring a more autonomous and strategic role. The possibility of connecting with Israel in less than 48 hours has not gone unnoticed by market participants. Thessaloniki is now openly investing in the narrative of becoming a logistics gateway for the Balkans, seeking access to a market of tens of millions of consumers. The real point of interest, however, lies elsewhere: whether the government, investors, and international players understand that the new era cannot be built through fragmented moves, but through a unified strategy for ports, railways, and logistics. In any case, backstage developments indicate that international maneuvering around Greek ports will intensify in the coming period.

Latsco at NTUA for the new generation of executives
The presence of Latsco Marine Management at the NTUA Career Day can hardly be considered accidental. The decision of the company of Marianna Latsis and Paris Kassidokostas-Latsis to be present alongside dozens of businesses carries a clear message. The new generation is now at the center of attention. The interest goes beyond a typical career-event participation. On the contrary, it is part of a broader movement being recorded in Greek shipping, with major names turning in a more organized way toward universities and young engineers. Shipping, which traditionally operated through more “closed” networks, appears to be turning a page, seeking talent with modern skills and a different perspective.

The “Holy Women’s Hermitage” makes a comeback in auctions
The “Holy Women’s Hermitage of the Resurrection of Christ,” with the special title “Emmaus,” made a rather… impressive comeback on the electronic auction platform after many months of absence. I remind you that the “Holy Hermitage,” based in Agios Vasileios, Lagadas, Thessaloniki, and specifically some of its people, were anything but… quiet in the past, turning it into a sort of small real-estate investment company. In recent years, however, many of its properties have been put up for auction. Thus, on May 27, doValue is proceeding with an auction for a ground-floor commercial property in Polygyros, Halkidiki, measuring 614.37 square meters, and another for the basement of the same property, measuring 480 square meters, with starting bids of €270,000 and €75,000 respectively — €345,000 in total. Now, this property is not just any property: it houses medical offices, waiting areas, and administrative services of IKA (now EFKA), while the basement serves as storage space. You see, those who carried out real-estate business ventures under the “banner” of the Hermitage did not choose properties at random. The relevant “list” included various commercial assets, residential complexes with villas and swimming pools, and dozens of plots of agricultural land. The commercial properties were usually leased to… good tenants such as the Greek state. In fact, the most “popular” among them was the multi-story building on Metsovou Street in Athens that formerly housed the Tax Office for Overseas Residents. It went up for auction in March 2022 with a starting bid of €1,872,000 and was awarded for exactly two euros more, at €1,872,002. Other properties from the “list” have been sold in the same manner, while many still remain and are being re-auctioned. Among them are rights to 15 small and larger agricultural plots in the Asvestochori area of the Pylaia-Chortiatis municipality, in the location “Orliak Tsesme.” These are scheduled to be auctioned on June 17, again initiated by doValue, with prices ranging from €1,950 to €18,500. To briefly revisit the story, this “Holy Women’s Hermitage of the Resurrection of Christ” became particularly well known in the past after “shadows” emerged regarding the acquisition of its real estate holdings, with the case reaching the courts. Thus, in 2015 six individuals — three monks and three laypeople — stood trial on charges of fraud and embezzlement, repeatedly, against the Holy Monastery, as well as money laundering from criminal activities. According to the indictment, they were accused of purchasing plots of land with low objective value during the period 1994–2008 on behalf of the Hermitage through excessive loans taken out in the names of believers and friends of the monastery. Reference was made to 29 loan agreements and unlawful financial gain amounting to €28 million. In fact, in 2007 they were allegedly involved in founding an offshore company in Liberia that guaranteed a €35 million loan for the benefit of the Hermitage. Nevertheless, in February 2019 the Three-Member Court of Appeal for Felonies in Thessaloniki unanimously acquitted those involved in the case, ruling that the felony charges had not been proven… The auction hammer, however, continues to fall to this day.

Inauguration in Schimatari
Early this morning the prime minister will travel to Schimatari to officially inaugurate Coca-Cola Three Epsilon’s new production line. Coca-Cola 3E created a new PET production line at the Mega-Plant in Schimatari, and naturally, in addition to the Prime Minister, the top hierarchy of the Coca-Cola HBC Group will be there: Anastasis David, CEO Zoran Bogdanovic, and COO Nagia Kalogeraki. The investment is part of the company’s ambitious capital expenditure program. Capital expenditures amounted to €43.9 million in 2025, with emphasis on modernizing production facilities. Naturally, the investments are being made with the company’s own funds, and Coca-Cola 3E continues to maintain zero bank borrowing. Schimatari will function as the heart of production for 11 countries, with 17 production lines operating 24 hours a day, 365 days a year. With the new PET line, export capacity is being further strengthened for markets where demand exceeds local production, from Germany to Romania and Serbia.

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Kraounakis writes a song for Alexis’ “inauguration,” Maria’s “Hope” is coming (with doves, swear words, and some mysterious figures), Nikos A.’s anxiety, the suitors of DELTA and CVC

The “bus” of Karamanlis–Alexis, what they are saying to Ivan about “President Maria,” the nervous breakdown in SYRIZA, and the handbrake-law for pharmacies

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Trastor: deviations and solutions
Despite the celebratory atmosphere at the opening of the trading session, Trastor’s stock suffered during the first trading day of the 217 million new shares issued in the €150 million capital increase, offered at €1 per share and oversubscribed 1.45 times. Tasos Kazinos rang the bell, but the free float was set at 16%, slightly below management’s target. This is why scenarios have already begun circulating about how to increase the free float to 20% without reducing the strong position of the main shareholder, Piraeus Bank. The solution may come from the three office buildings of Ethniki Asfalistiki in downtown Athens. Total investment cost: €55 million, with an average yield of 8%. Piraeus Bank holds properties on its balance sheet that constitute a capital burden. One of them, the landmark Ethniki Asfalistiki building on Syngrou Avenue, could serve as an “in-kind contribution” to Trastor’s share capital. If agreement is reached on the property’s valuation — which is not considered especially difficult — the Ethniki Asfalistiki building changes the mathematical equation of the company.

The big business behind a visit
When President Trump began his trip to Beijing, analysts said he was interested in the “three Bs”: Beans, Boeing, Bitcoin. Food, airplanes, and cryptocurrencies. The first assessment from the first visit of an American president to China since 2017 is extremely interesting. The package of agreements has four pillars. First, 200 Boeing aircraft for Chinese airlines, representing the first commitment by China to purchase American aircraft since 2017. Second, agricultural products worth at least $17 billion annually for the period 2026–2028, beyond already agreed soybean contracts. These two commitments together amount to approximately $27 billion annually, up from the $24.4 billion in American agricultural exports to China recorded in 2024. Third, China loosened access restrictions to rare earths (yttrium, scandium, neodymium, indium), the minerals President Xi had tightly held as a bargaining weapon. Fourth, there was a mutual agreement to restart trade in beef and poultry. The truth is that Beijing has not publicly confirmed the rare-earths agreement. There is only the American side’s announcement that “China will address U.S. concerns regarding restrictions on rare earths.” Boeing officially confirmed China’s “initial commitment” for the 200 aircraft, stating that it “expects further commitments to follow this initial declaration.” One thing is certain: President Xi will visit the White House in the fall.

The secret of the Hindenburg Indicator
James Miekka was a blind mathematician who never studied finance. He taught physics until he lost his sight in an explosion during an experiment. Lying in pain in his bed, he listened to radio broadcasts about stock-market investing. From those broadcasts emerged one of the most discussed indicators in technical analysis. The name “Hindenburg Omen” was given by Kennedy Gammage of the Richland Report and refers to the destruction of the German airship on May 6, 1937. Metaphorically, the “Hindenburg” indicator attempts to warn of the unexpected, the sudden, and the inevitable. The “Hindenburg” signal is activated when both new 52-week highs and new 52-week lows on the New York Stock Exchange exceed 2.8% of the total number of stocks advancing or declining on the same day. A prerequisite for the indicator to function is that the market must already be in an upward trend. That is the paradox of the indicator: it emits a danger signal not in declining markets, but in rising ones, when a portion of stocks begins to diverge from the broader euphoria. The indicator “predicted” the 1987 crash and the 2008 financial crisis. Between October and November 2025, five “Hindenburg” signals were recorded and the market ignored them. In February 2026, three new “Hindenburg” signals appeared within six trading sessions. Today, stocks are celebrating, bonds are suffering, and with Brent crude above $110, analysts are looking again at the indicator. Many point out that its statistical reliability is no greater than 25%. The Hindenburg Omen is not a prophecy; it is smoke. Smoke does not always mean fire. But it does mean that somewhere, something is burning.

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