Hello, then, today is the day of the party announcement for President Maria K. in Thessaloniki. A source told me that the party will be called “Elpida” (Hope), or it will also include the word “Hope” in its name, and somewhere there will also be the necessary dove. Now in Greece, at a party-political level since the 1950s, one could have even built an entire dovecote. We started with the historic EDA, moved on to the unfortunate KODISO of Giagos Pesmazoglou, then there was another insignificant party called ELLAS, the Democrats of Loverdos. But just before the 2015 elections, in the head of only one political leader, on Epiphany Day, a dove had landed… as if it were the Holy Spirit. In our Alexis, who is preparing for next Tuesday at Thissio with a view of the Acropolis. I asked my source, “what will you call the party, Maria will call it Hope,” and he replied laughing, “we, Faith.” Why don’t they follow Mario of AEK’s slogan: “patience, persistence, faith and passion,” which says it all?

What does the dove say…

One of Maria K.’s… doves sent me a message that among the close associates of Karystianou there is dissatisfaction and concern about the uncontrolled and grotesque “entry” of Stratos Siourdakis from Saint Petersburg into the Athens offices. The issue arose when the well-known videos triggered negative discussions across Greece and put regional officials in Central and Northern Greece in a difficult position. Why? Because they were forced to apologize for unnecessary things, as they say while sighing, “at a moment when the Movement is progressing dynamically.” If this is combined with the leak from Ivan’s circle that he is keeping distance from the project, a problem is created which—according to those concerned—is unnecessary. And this problem is, by necessity, called upon to be solved by little Maria herself before it— with the momentum with which Siourdakis entered the scene before her— becomes uncontrollable. Now, of course, the press representative Avgerinos also adopted a comment from X in which someone insulted Mitsotakis in a manner reminiscent, in “political” terms, of what we had not heard since the era of Golden Dawn. I foresee festivities, and you should know that I am good at such predictions; you may remember since when I recognized Kasselakis’ talent. In any case, Karystianou’s team moved to Thessaloniki from yesterday to prepare tonight’s event. It goes without saying that the only and sole protagonist, inside and outside the “Olympion,” will be Maria. Of course—does the party not have a leader-centered character? It does, of course it does. However, her staff thought of putting others into the frame of the unveiling of the founding declaration. That is why they secured some greeting “pre-recorded” videos, meaning clips from various people from here and abroad who support the new party. They also say they have prepared some surprises—meaning they have approached certain persons who, if they finally appear this afternoon in Thessaloniki, will indeed make an impression. I am very curious.

The faces of Alexis

I told you the other day that Alexis will have a romantic backdrop next Tuesday during the presentation of his own party, and today I am telling you that the location he chose is the same one chosen before the 2023 elections by Mitsotakis as well, on Apostolou Pavlou pedestrian street with a view of the Acropolis. It also appears that current SYRIZA MPs will not appear, since if they did they would have to resign their seats afterward. In general, Tsipras’ team is promoting a series of new faces who will be in the showcase of the new party, whose press representative is said to be Theoni Koufonikolakou, who holds the same role at the institute. In economics, roles will be held by Giorgos Chouliarakis, Dimitris Liakos, and Fragiskos Koutentakis, while in foreign affairs Tsipras will have Haris Tzimitras, since his long-time diplomatic advisor Vangelis Kalpadakis now serves in Vienna.

The song of Kraounakis for Alexis

In any case, the unveiling of Tsipras’ party next Tuesday at Thissio will also be “accompanied” by appropriate musical background. With the Acropolis in the background and the Attic sky inspiring composer Stamatis Kraounakis, a known admirer of President Alexis, it seems he is preparing a special song dedicated to him and the evening…

The leaks of institutional Nikos

For many years, with the wiretapping case in the background, Androulakis has been tearing his clothes over the damage to the rule of law, the violation of institutions, and other such things. And what did the giant do yesterday when he found himself facing the head of the intelligence service in a closed session of the parliamentary institutions committee? He leaked the dialogue, without anyone being able to say with certainty that it happened exactly like that. It is clear that Nikos has an obsession with the wiretapping issue, but now it is even clearer that he is consumed by anxiety and concern ahead of the emergence of the two new parties, especially Tsipras’ one. And he is probably overplaying it a bit.

The Zoom on wiretapping

The wiretapping case continues on Friday, as the Parliament will discuss PASOK’s request for the establishment of an investigative committee. Let me give you some information: yesterday ND officials held a Zoom meeting, since the relevant vice-president Chatzidakis—who is involved in the discussion—was away in Germany. From the discussion I hear took place, it appears that ND will invoke serious national reasons in order to request a 151-vote majority for the establishment of the committee, so that it does not depend on the 120 MPs the opposition may gather. After all, their position is that no substantial new evidence has emerged for further parliamentary investigation.

The continuation of ND in spatial planning policy, from Karamanlis to Mitsotakis

The new Special Spatial Framework for Renewable Energy Sources (RES) does not come in a vacuum. It is the next link in a path that began in 2008 under the Karamanlis government, when the first spatial framework for RES was established, and continues today by the government and Papastavrou. The difference is that back then the country needed to boost renewables. Today, when RES already cover 50% of domestic electricity production, something equally crucial is needed: rules. The new framework does not treat RES merely as an energy target, but as part of an overall national plan, with strict environmental restrictions, clear exclusion zones, and special care for Natura areas, forests, forest lands, islands, tourist areas, monuments, archaeological sites, and landscapes of special natural beauty. In short, the government is trying to respond to the old false dilemma “RES or environment” in a clear way: RES with the environment. The same was said for the dilemma environment or tourism. The same will be done in the next spatial framework for industry that follows.

July 4th…

This year, the U.S. national holiday, July 4th, coincides with the celebration of the 250th anniversary of the Declaration of Independence, an event that will be marked with celebrations both in the United States and around the world. In Athens, this year’s anniversary gains particular interest, as it is the first during the tenure of the new U.S. ambassador, Kimberly Guilfoyle, who wishes to give a special brilliance to the celebration. We learn that the traditional reception will not take place this year in the hospitable spaces of the ambassadorial residence on P. Kyriakou Street, known as Jefferson House, but at the Stavros Niarchos Foundation Cultural Center, which of course allows for a much larger number of guests, as demand is high, while invitations have increased due to many who have come into contact with the active American ambassador in recent months. Invitations are already being sent for the event, which will take place on July 2 and will likely be the most widely discussed diplomatic social event of the season.

From S. Theodoropoulos to the Sarantis brothers and to Th. Kyriakou

Let us move to market news, starting with the big bargaining over DELTA. CVC has rejected the proposals of Spyros Theodoropoulos, who offers 10 times DELTA Foods’ EBITDA. CVC argues that the company will perform better this year and is willing to discuss only if the proposal values it at 12 times EBITDA. Also entering the game is an experienced, especially in milk, business duo: the Sarantis brothers of the Greek Dairy Industries group (Olympus). It is recalled that Vivartia signed in July 2025 the agreement for the sale of 100% of the shares of the dairy company Dodoni, through its parent company NUTRICO. It goes without saying that the Sarantis brothers approach every business move in the milk market differently from others, as after so many years in the sector they know very well how to act to make a company more profitable. They also know equally well that the Competition Commission would not be enthusiastic about such a deal. At this point another strong businessman appears, Th. Kyriakou, and this is where things stand today, with discussions ongoing. Kyriakou has a €1 billion commitment from Qatar and has recently shown intense activity. He showed interest via Goldman Sachs in the ferry group Attica Group (note: it is not going to be sold, unless a different dynamic emerges for biological reasons), and he had a notable presence in the capital increase of PPC. Meanwhile, CVC (after, as we have said before, selling its stake in Skroutz to Blackstone) is “draining” DELTA Foods through capital returns ahead of the sale. Specifically, through Nutrico, CVC will receive a capital return of €40.9 million from DELTA this year.

Credia–Europe

According to information, and barring any unforeseen developments—as with such deals you can never be sure—today, after the closing of the Stock Exchange, the deal between CrediaBank and Europa Insurance is expected to be announced.

Sellers

I do not know whether it is due to the rise of PPC, or to the rebalancing of the FTSE and MSCI indices, or to US bond yields, or to all of these together, or to some other reason. In any case, regardless of any upward reactions, the stock market is being systematically pressured by mainly foreign portfolios in specific blue-chip stocks that have already recorded significant gains. Meanwhile, the market is preparing for the issuance of Lamda Development’s new corporate bond, likely €300 million, while the baton will pass to the share capital increase of ADMIE S.A. The CEO of the operator, in a recent speech, expressed optimism that the capital increase will be completed within June.

Alpha Bank: Keeping one eye open for acquisitions

Around September–October, likely toward the end of Q3, Alpha Bank’s investor day is expected, whose initial schedule was shifted due to geopolitical uncertainty. Although the bank had a very strong quarter, management remained conservative, considering the broader environment’s volatility high. However, as CEO V. Psaltis stated, there is no change in forecasts for 2026, while regarding distributions the bank will remain at 55% in order to keep capital strong due to the circumstances, and also because it always keeps one eye open for mergers and acquisitions. As shown by quarterly results, Alpha Bank is building a significant non-interest income component, as assets under management rose to €26.6 billion, up by €4.2 billion quarter-on-quarter. It is worth noting that the €26.6 billion excludes Alpha Trust’s assets under management.

Alpha Trust Holdings – Alpha Bank

The acquisition of 69.61% of Alpha Trust Holdings by Alpha Bank is expected by the end of Q2 2026. Assets under management (AuM) exceed €2.2 billion, with a growth rate (CAGR) of +19% over 2022–2025—a strong record of organic growth, which is also an investment advantage of the transaction. Earnings per share (EPS) accretion is estimated at approximately 1%, while return on capital employed (ROCE) is expected to be above 15%. Correspondingly, the improvement in return on tangible equity (ROTE) is estimated at more than 10 basis points, while the impact on the CET1 ratio is around 17 basis points. At the level of Alpha Bank’s AuM for Q1 2026, the addition of Alpha Trust Holdings’ more than €2.2 billion brings total pro forma AuM to approximately €28.8 billion—an important step in strengthening scale in the wealth management sector.

PPC: The largest capital concentration in the history of the Stock Exchange

Three days of book building for PPC’s capital increase and the capital concentration is the largest in the history of the Stock Exchange, many times the €4.25 billion target. The offer price was locked at €18.63, which coincidentally is the same as the closing price on April 23, the day the capital increase was announced. In practice, this means that anyone who bought PPC shares earlier can lock in—with a derivative product (put option)—an immediate return of 7%–8% compared to today’s €19.9–€20 levels, purely from the price difference. In addition, PPC has committed to a dividend distribution of €0.6/share on July 20 and €0.8/share next year. For 2028, it has planned a dividend of €1.20 per share in 2028 and €1.40 per share by 2030. There is also another aspect that management has not officially opened, but the market is watching. PPC did not announce any underwriting fees for the capital increase. Many recall that the same scenario occurred in the Athens International Airport share placement, where fees were announced later as a reward for success. If the same pattern is repeated, underwriter profits will be proportional to the scale—meaning significant.

Clarifying the picture in ELLAKTOR

Motor Oil reduced its stake from 22.40% to 10.41%, selling 41.75 million shares through an over-the-counter transaction. The exclusive buyer was Reggeborgh Invest B.V. of Henry Holterman, which increased its stake to 64.626%, or 65.004% if treasury shares are included. Alongside Holterman is another Dutch investor, Atlas N.V., a Brussels-based company controlled via AtlasInvest Holding B.V. by Dutch businessman Martialis Quirinus van Poecke. The second Dutch investor holds approximately 9.8%. The three main shareholders now control more than 85% of ELLAKTOR. Preparation appears to be complete, and it is rumored that the next step, after the sale of Aktor Concessions, will be a public tender offer by Reggeborgh. The main shareholders have fully recouped their investment through capital returns and dividends, and every subsequent move is pure profit. ELLAKTOR retains a portfolio of concessions, real estate, and the Alimos Marina as its flagship asset. It is therefore likely to be transformed into a European infrastructure fund with a long-term horizon.

Fourlis: The cost of technological transformation

The Fourlis Group recorded increased sales in Q1 2026 but also losses, as higher operating expenses and investments in technological transformation weighed on results. Sales rose by 12.6% to €133.1 million, with positive contributions from both the home equipment segment and sporting goods, where growth was particularly strong (+25%). However, increased expenses related to platform development, upgrade and centralization of IT systems, as well as inflationary pressures on wages, energy, transport, and real estate, led to adjusted EBITDA losses of €2.2 million and net losses of €5.6 million for the quarter, compared to profits of €2.7 million a year earlier. Management, however, is more optimistic for the rest of the year, as by mid-May group sales were running up 8%, with sporting goods (Intersport, Foot Locker) continuing to outperform. The company also expects that investments in system integration and upgrades will begin to yield operational efficiencies and higher productivity from 2027 onward.

Three-year plan, Romania and Fessas

In the conference call with analysts, management provided extensive detail on its strategic plan. CEO Giannis Vasilakos noted that, within the retail platform the group is developing, 2026 will be a transitional year focused on implementation of investments, laying the foundations of transformation; 2027 will be the year of platform integration; and from 2027–2028 onward, accelerating growth will be recorded. It was emphasized that there is no concern regarding sales or profit margins, but due to transformation requirements and a challenging environment (especially in Romania), management avoided issuing guidance for the year, possibly deferring it to the upcoming AGM. The Romanian market was described as particularly difficult, with the goal being protection of market share and mitigation of energy cost pressures affecting group performance. Finally, regarding Quest’s entry (Fessas) with just over 10%, Vassilis Fourlis stated that synergies between the two groups will be explored across several areas, but it is still too early for concrete plans.

The 5 “secrets” of leadership by Angeliki Frangou

Angeliki Frangou’s speech to Columbia Engineering graduates functioned more as a revelation of a leadership model than a typical ceremonial address. Through her words, a way of thinking emerges that explains how a modern shipping conglomerate is managed under conditions of extreme uncertainty. The first and fundamental principle highlighted is the disciplined logic of the engineer. She emphasizes that she never stopped thinking like an engineer, even as her path led her to the top of shipping. This translates into leadership based on structure, data analysis, and systematic problem-solving, without emotional bias but with clear methodology. The second element is the acceptance of uncertainty as the norm rather than the exception. Frangou describes an industry where ships operate in zones of conflict, crises, and geopolitical upheavals, where decisions are often made in real time. Leadership in this context is not static management but continuous response to unpredictable conditions. The third secret is emphasis on people and responsibility. Behind numbers and fleets, she underscores that shipping is a physically demanding and dangerous industry, where crew protection is a top priority. Her references to piracy incidents and rescue operations are not for effect but a reminder of responsibility. The fourth element is technological foresight. The shift “from reactive repair to predictive reliability” summarizes a philosophical change: from fixing failures after they occur to anticipating and preventing them through data and AI. Finally, there is a strategic dimension: shipping as geo-economic power. Her reference to the revival of shipbuilding and global competition shows that she views the sector not only as trade and transport, but as a critical link in national and international balance.

What Pittas and Nikolas Martinos see that the market has not yet priced in

In the market for new tanker and bulk carrier orders, the recent moves by Nikolas Martinos and Aristidis Pittas, in Wall Street terminology, represent an indication of a capital reallocation cycle in an environment where vessel supply, geopolitical volatility, and forward earnings visibility converge into a particularly noisy macro setting. The choices of the two shipowners at China’s Hengli Heavy Industry yard show something analysts are already whispering: China is no longer just a low-cost option, but a strategic capacity lock-in hub. The repeated presence of Greek names in this shipyard’s order books indicates both confidence in production capability and the need to secure slots in a tightening market. In Pittas’ case (Eurobulk), the choice of Kamsarmax bulk carriers is read as a more disciplined exposure to a segment offering stable cash flows with limited volatility compared to tankers—what an analyst would call disciplined exposure to the dry bulk cycle without excessive beta risk. By contrast, Martinos (Thenamaris) shows a more layered strategy. LR2 tankers are not just exposure to product shipping, but a direct position on refining arbitrage and regional imbalances in global fuel trade. This approach, combined with previous moves in dual-fuel and MR tankers, reflects a portfolio mindset closer to fund allocation than traditional shipping expansion.

Why MSC is investing so aggressively in Greece – The real plan

The MSC Cruises event in Rhodes aboard the cruise ship EXPLORA II was not just another corporate presentation on sustainability in Greece’s cruise sector. Behind the scenes, it was a clear signal that the cruise giant is attempting to further entrench its position in the Greek market, investing not only in routes but primarily in influence relationships with local authorities and institutional stakeholders. The choice of Rhodes and the wider Dodecanese is not random. For MSC, the South Aegean functions as a high-value strategic hub: high visitor flows, strong destination brand, and political weight in discussions on cruise traffic management. In market terms, this is “capacity management diplomacy,” meaning shaping future regulatory constraints through proactive institutional presence. The interest is not only operational but also geopolitical in tourism terms. The presence of both MSC Cruises and its luxury subsidiary Explora Journeys reflects a dual-brand strategy: mass-scale cruising on one hand and premium, lower-impact but higher-spend experiences on the other. The key conclusion is that MSC does not treat Greece as a simple route in the Eastern Mediterranean, but as a central operational hub, actively shaping the framework within which the market will operate in the coming years.

HELLENiQ ENERGY flirting with 18-year highs

HELLENiQ ENERGY confirmed its strong momentum on the Athens Stock Exchange, recording its fourth consecutive rising session. The stock closed at €10.15, moving closer to its yearly high of €10.3. Positive sentiment was strengthened by a Bloomberg report relaying management assurances that no jet fuel shortages are expected in the Greek market, even during peak summer demand, despite scheduled maintenance works in major regional production units. This development reassured the market regarding the effectiveness of strategic planning at HELLENiQ ENERGY. Investors rewarded the company’s ability to ensure uninterrupted supply, which secures its high profitability. For institutional portfolios, the stock now combines defensive characteristics via strong cash flows with stable dividend policy, while its ability to meet rising domestic and international fuel demand creates conditions for breaking through yearly highs and establishing even higher valuation levels. It is worth noting that above €10.3, the next comparable closing level is found 18 years back, in mid-June 2008, at €10.5.

With an “Athens recipe,” Euronext looks toward Vienna and Warsaw

Euronext Athens recorded a strong rise, standing out among mid-cap stocks and coming within a breath of its yearly high of €7.3. This movement is fully aligned with the rally of the parent company Euronext, following the impressive Q1 results. Euronext reported its 8th consecutive quarter of double-digit growth, with net profits reaching €192.3 million, up 16.7%. Revenues from Capital Markets and Data Solutions increased by 18.2%, with management noting the contribution of Euronext Athens among the growth drivers. Investor interest was further rekindled after statements by Euronext CEO Stéphane Boujnah, who clarified the landscape around acquisition strategy. Boujnah stressed that the scope for further consolidation of European stock exchanges is now limited. Referring to potential new targets such as the Vienna and Warsaw stock exchanges, he made it clear that the group will not engage in endless negotiations, following the strict institutional “take it or leave it” logic that was also applied in the Athens case, where the price remained fixed without concessions. At the same time, the integration of the Greek stock exchange is progressing as shown by its revenue contribution and preparations for the transition to the Optiq® platform in early 2027.

Who bought TREK Development shares

Six months ago, TREK Development made its debut on the Euronext Athens Alternative Market at €1.40. Within a few hours, it had already reached €1.95. Six months later, the company’s shareholder structure was announced yesterday: the same stock changed hands at €3.60, i.e. +157% from the listing price. This is the second-best performance in our market—Main and Alternative Market combined. The day before yesterday, Chairman and CEO Konstantinos Papapolyzos and Vice Chairwoman Melina Lazaropoulou sold a total of 709,000 shares (around 9% of the company’s capitalization) to institutional investors. Overall, the two main shareholders retain 68% of the share capital. Market sources name new shareholders as e-EFKA, a mutual fund of Piraeus Bank, and Allianz. To the “old” institutional investors (Quest Holdings/Fessas, Lyktos Group/Sallas, Alpha Trust, 3K, and Optima Bank), who already control 28% of the company, three additional large portfolios were added. For a company with €3.8 million turnover, zero debt, and EBITDA that more than doubled in 2025, the shareholder list is heavy.

Greek savers love mutual funds

Market conditions are turbulent, interest rates appear to be on an upward path, yet Greek savers continue to buy mutual fund units. Assets under management of Greek mutual funds fell marginally by €55 million, to a total of €31.39 billion. The decline did not come from investor outflows but from a short-term market correction. Weekly net inflows exceeded €132.7 million. In other words, Greeks are investing in mutual funds even in a down week. Since the beginning of the year, mutual fund assets in Greece have increased by nearly €2 billion. Three-quarters of this increase comes from new inflows, not performance. The Greek market appears to be maturing, enjoying historically high levels.

American refineries “smelled” easy profit

Since the Strait of Hormuz was effectively closed to international navigation, the global aviation fuel market is facing a shortfall of around 400,000 barrels per day. The number seems manageable, but the major problem lies in jet fuel. Total demand for jet fuel accounts for roughly 7.5% of global oil consumption. Wall Street understood this quickly. American refineries acted even faster. Data from the US Energy Information Administration shows that jet fuel yield per barrel of crude oil in US refineries reached a historical high of 12.7%. This represents an increase of 2.2 percentage points since the start of the war. In volume terms, this translates to 250,000 additional barrels of jet fuel per day compared to last year. Essentially, US refineries reduced production of other products and maximized output of the most profitable product of the period. Profit margins in jet fuel have surged to record levels. Airlines have no alternative; they cannot switch fuel like cars can. Demand remains almost inelastic, while supply is covered by Texas, Louisiana, and California. European airlines face a double burden: higher fuel costs and longer routes due to airspace restrictions. Profits flow to Wall Street.

Central banks are selling US government bonds

The data are official, from the US Treasury Department, and refer to March. China reduced its holdings of US Treasuries to $652.3 billion, the lowest level since September 2008, a -6% drop in one month. Japan, the largest foreign holder of US debt, offloaded $47 billion, reducing its portfolio to $1.191 trillion. Overall, foreign governments reduced their holdings from $9.49 trillion in February to $9.25 trillion in March—a $240 billion decline in four weeks. Importing economies were forced to sell dollars to defend their currencies. The most liquid dollar asset is US Treasuries. Mass selling pushes yields higher, increasing US government borrowing costs precisely when energy-driven inflation requires tight monetary policy. The war in the Middle East did not only shake oil prices—it also shook the market considered the world’s ultimate safe haven. The geography of investment risk is being rewritten from scratch.