Hello, a great and happy night (for some) yesterday, with Olympiacos lifting the European basketball trophy in Athens — celebrations and joy everywhere. Mitsotakis will invite them to the Maximos Mansion tomorrow or the day after, but in general it is a great joy when a team wins such a major competition while it is being held in its own country. Now, otherwise, the event of the week is not coming from the government, which will move at a relaxed pace with Mitsotakis speaking at media conferences, but from our much-loved leader Alexis, who is finally attempting his return to active politics for the second time. This time with the colors of Barcelona, blue and red, in Thiseio Square on Tuesday in an idyllic sunset setting and, naturally, with several thousand people as the backdrop, since he himself came out and asked for it in a video the other day: “I’m waiting for all of you,” he said. Not like poor Maria, who set up giant screens but barely managed to fill the “Olympion,” though that does not of course mean she will not have momentum, especially in northern Greece, because from what I hear from pollsters, in Athens she is not gaining any traction at all. My sources tell me that Tsipras will not have MPs sitting below him in the audience — some understandings have been reached — although I think a few will still go because with the situation prevailing in the Left today there are countless desperate people waiting to see a light to follow. Don’t expect to see fresh faces, though; it will be the same Syriza people in different variations, with Kraounakis providing the musical backdrop. Tsipras’s difficulty from now on will come after the communications buzz around the new movement and the party — that is, once the dust settles and people start wondering why our beloved president had to make this entire journey around himself just to get rid of Polakis, Pappas, and Rena Dourou. If someone were to ask him, “Why are you making a new party, since in your book you told us you regret almost nothing and that more or less everything went well? What is all the fuss for?” You could say, “Well, at least we were left with Kasselakis as a gift” — fair enough.

Samaras…
Roughly the same issue will also have to be faced by Samaras, who according to the entire political-journalistic scene is preparing to launch his own party. What will Antonis say, in the twilight of his political life? That he is creating a party this time to bring down Mitsotakis’s son? Because all this talk about “we lost the soul of the party” does not, I think, have any audience beyond the people who for the past five or six years have been politically drifting between Velopoulos, Niki, now a little bit of Latinopoulou, and perhaps something else leaning toward Karystianou. Of course Samaras knows all this because he has extensive experience, and despite the hatred that dominates his soul for Mitsotakis, he is not exposing himself yet; he is waiting to see how all this develops before announcing a party. As you understand, running and getting 3%–4% and entering Parliament is at least something, but he is also thinking about the “2-point-something” that George Papandreou got when he created his own party — and he was a Papandreou. And when he was completely humiliated on election night, he turned to dancing zeibekiko. Samaras also knows from experience that it is one thing what people promise you when they push you to create a party in order to damage Mitsotakis, and another thing entirely how it eventually ends up. Antonis knows all this both from the trick with Simpilidis and from the other huge business trick during the coalition government with PASOK — but let’s not remind people of that ourselves!

…and K.K. (Rafina) right beside him
In Samaras’s venture, Karamanlis (Rafina) is also playing a shadowy role. He has completely distanced himself from New Democracy and Mitsotakis, but because of his name he cannot openly rebel in the same way Samaras does. Behind the scenes, however, many of his people are backing the former prime minister, even undertaking organizational initiatives. Karamanlis will never do these things openly — because certain bones would start rattling up in Filothei — but behind the scenes he is quietly doing his work. And whenever he gets the opportunity, he will throw in a few barbs as well. For example, on the 26th of the month he will speak at the presentation of the book by Konstantinos Arvanitopoulos and Konstantinos Filis at the Megaron Music Hall, so he will say a few words there too.

The teacher’s despair
In this new environment, where many are competing for votes to the right of New Democracy, the most pressured figure is Natsios of NIKI. His shop is falling apart, as several party officials have left, some of whom have found shelter with Karystianou. The “teacher” tried a few months ago: he got rid of some associates, hired as director a former associate of Panagopoulos from the GSEE, and even brought in a communications company, but the project is not taking off. A few days ago he made a public appeal for cooperation with Karystianou just in case, but she snubbed him, and on Friday he also started saying that he keeps hearing about hope all the time, but only the Virgin Mary gives hope. As you understand, this show is not selling many tickets, and lately a scenario has started circulating in far-right circles that at some point Natsios could even cooperate with Velopoulos in an attempt at political survival. All this is theory and speculation for now, but keep in mind that it is highly unlikely that the vote to the right of New Democracy can be seriously contested simultaneously by Velopoulos, Samaras, Natsios, Latinopoulou, and Karystianou.

The EEZ and Dendias
Let me also tell you that there is movement regarding the EEZ issue with Albania. We have had a pending issue for years concerning the referral of our bilateral dispute to The Hague. At one point an effort had been made and things were progressing well, but the Albanians backed away and the matter stalled. Then the Beleri affair followed and things were pushed even further back. When Rama came in April for the Delphi Forum, he revealed that there is movement and that by autumn we could have a compromis ready for referral to The Hague. The issue had been handled during the previous four-year term by Dendias, who is going to Albania today and at noon, after meeting his counterpart, will also meet Rama, who is hosting a lunch for him at the prime ministerial residence. As you understand, something really is moving.

Euronext: Pleasant surprises and hot coals
And now we move to market news, starting with Euronext, which has pleasant surprises in store for investors — surprises that prove that the Greek stock exchange really did move up a level by joining the Euronext umbrella. That covers the good news for now, because the other side of the coin is that smaller brokerage firms are sitting on hot coals. This is because this week they are expecting to be informed by Euronext about the “specific operational issues of the market,” meaning everything from changes in trading hours to the costs they will have to bear in order to continue operating. For now, what they know is that by February 2027 they must have made changes to their systems so that they can connect to Optiq, the platform used by Euronext. In February they will begin conducting transactions through Optiq on a pilot basis, and from June 2027 they will do so normally. For the larger brokerage firms, which want to serve institutional investors, adaptation costs are significantly higher, but those belong to banks so there is no issue. For the remaining brokerages without banking backing, by next June it will become clear how many of them can survive into the new era.

TUI activated bookings for Greece – Reassuring statements on fuel
With summer ante portas, one of the main questions hanging over travelers concerns package holiday prices, aviation fuel, and potential shortages. One indicative sign of the climate prevailing ahead of the “European summer” is the effort by TUI, Europe’s largest travel group, to calm exactly these concerns. With extensive promotion on social media over the weekend, Sebastian Ebel, CEO of Europe’s largest travel organization — which brings more than 3 million travelers to Greece every year, mainly from Germany — now says that “we are well prepared for the summer travel season, with a stable supply of jet fuel already secured. We do not expect disruptions and our activities will continue normally according to schedule. Most importantly, we remain committed to our customers: the price at which bookings were made is the final price they will pay — no surprises and no retroactive increases.” It should be noted that TUI also activated bookings last week for summer 2027, with Greece and Spain once again included among the group’s main destinations, indicating the level of demand being recorded for organized travel. For Greece, islands such as Crete, Kos, Rhodes, and Corfu are already among the main choices for summer 2027.

Landis+Gyr: The “sweep” of 60 employees, the sale to the Germans, and concern over the Corinth factory
In the already complex web of developments surrounding the Greek subsidiary of Swiss company Landis+Gyr, the non-renewal of contracts for around 60 employees during May at the Corinth factory adds yet another link of uncertainty during a period of major upheaval for the company. The latest workforce reduction, which follows the loss of the major tender for “smart” meters in Greece, has caused fresh internal tensions and intensified workers’ concerns over the future of the factory’s production activity. Developments surrounding the manufacturer of smart meters and network-management solutions gain even greater significance because they are part of a broader process of corporate transformation. In April, Landis+Gyr completed its divestment from all operations in Europe, the Middle East, and Africa (EMEA) by transferring that division to AURELIUS, a German private-equity investment group specializing in acquisitions, restructurings, and corporate carve-outs. The agreement includes five production units and around 2,800 employees, effectively placing the Corinth factory within the new operational and ownership framework established by the new shareholder. In this environment, the Greek subsidiary in Corinth finds itself at the center of a transitional period. According to the management report for the last fiscal year ending in March 2025, turnover fell to €228.7 million from €274.3 million, a drop of 16.6%, while EBITDA declined to €9.82 million from €16.8 million. At the same time, the company posted after-tax losses of €312,000 compared to profits of €4.7 million in the previous year, a development attributed to lower production activity and declining sales in certain product categories. Meanwhile, the transfer of production activities — such as the Focus meter bases to the group’s factory in Mexico — along with the overall reorganization of the production footprint, reinforces the image of a broad revision of the business model. Under these conditions, the non-renewal of contracts for around 60 workers during May is being treated as yet another indication of ongoing changes. With the Corinth factory now entering the new operational environment under AURELIUS and the group restructuring its international activities, concern within the unit remains intense, as the future for Corinth is still unclear.

The changes in the FTSE-25
During the coming week we will also learn the semiannual changes to the FTSE-25, with CrediaBank certain to enter in place of Sarantis. Sarantis’s move into the Mid-Cap Index could potentially push Profile’s stock lower within the index rankings. The changes will take place at the close of trading on June 19. Speaking of indices, MSCI in the past had proceeded with an extraordinary revision of Alpha Bank’s weighting after the 2021 share capital increase, because it exceeded 50% of the then market capitalization. It is not impossible that we could now see the same thing happen with PPC at the close of May trading at the end of next week.

Bonuses froze staff departures
Out of the record profits of Greek listed companies — total net profits of €12.1 billion — around 45.5%, that is €5.5 billion, came from the banks. This is the highest profitability in the last 18 years. Bank managements wanted to reward employees and expanded bonus eligibility to lower staff grades as well. Thus older employees nearing retirement also benefited. As a result, employees with many years of service who had the option to reverse course, and who may have been planning to leave, are now reconsidering their decisions with an eye toward future bonuses. In the banking sector, voluntary retirement schemes have reached their limits, and now bonuses are freezing staff departures.

Banks back in the spotlight
There are two givens for analysts of bank stocks, especially now that with the unprecedented concentration of capital around PPC everyone is expecting a “spillover” of liquidity. First, all banks are targeting major credit expansion — more mortgages, consumer loans, and business lending — because they have both the capital structure and the required liquidity. Second, Europe is heading toward an increase (or increases) in the cost of money. Bank profitability changes every time the ECB moves interest rates by 25 basis points. This “sensitivity” is not the same for all banks; it depends on the size of the loan portfolio, the proportion of floating-rate loans, and the composition of deposits. Piraeus CEO Christos Megalou has publicly stated that for every +25 basis points in ECB rates, the boost to the bank’s net interest income (NII) reaches €50 million. For Eurobank, the corresponding figure is around €40 million. At the other end of the scale, CrediaBank CEO Eleni Vrettou has said that every 0.25% increase in interest rates means an additional €5 million in revenue in Greece. In Europe, analysts expect up to two ECB rate hikes during 2026, each in the range of +25 basis points. HSBC revised upward its forecasts for the NII of Greek banks by +2% for 2026 and by +4% for 2027. Potential ECB rate hikes could also push up the yields on time deposits through competition from non-systemic players, and the interest margin could narrow. Managing this balance is the critical challenge for bank managements over the next two years.

India’s 1.5 million billionaires
The Eurobank delegation returned from Mumbai, where it inaugurated its first branch in India. The bank’s management, led by Fokion Karavias, held a series of meetings with Indian entrepreneurs and discussed possible collaborations across various sectors. The bank is attempting, mainly through its presence in Cyprus, to establish a stable foothold along the so-called “Silk Road.” India is estimated to have around 1.5 million billionaires, a figure far higher than in any other country. At the same time, the wealthiest 10% of the population controls roughly 70% of the country’s total wealth. Meanwhile, the average age in India is around 28, compared with 38 in China and 48 in Europe, highlighting the country’s demographic dynamism. Many believe that this demographic profile is shaping the future balance of the global economy.

Historic record for ADMIE
ADMIE Holdings stock (which owns 51% of the grid operator) became the absolute protagonist of the Athens Stock Exchange, posting an impressive upward breakout. In Friday’s session, the stock surged by +7.53%, closing at €3.64 — a new all-time high — with turnover reaching €6.95 million and its market capitalization now approaching €850 million. The undisputed catalyst for this move is ADMIE’s upcoming €1 billion share capital increase, with the market already pricing in its success. Despite the stock’s historic high, many investors still consider the valuation extremely attractive given the growth story unfolding. The capital to be raised is intended for partial financing of the new 2026–2029 strategic plan, which foresees investments totaling €6 billion. This investment plan includes five key projects involving the strengthening of the domestic grid as well as major island and international power interconnections. The company’s strong momentum is being decisively reinforced by the fact that major shareholders have already sent a clear signal of support, ensuring the operator’s capital backing. All eyes are now turning to the ADMIE Holdings general assembly scheduled for June 11, where participation of up to €530 million in the capital increase is expected to be approved.

OLP under pressure
– April showed signs of stabilization in container traffic at the Port of Piraeus. Specifically, terminals II and III recorded a marginal increase of 0.6% compared with last year. However, the four-month picture remains negative, with traffic down 4.2% year-on-year. It is recalled that in the first quarter OLP had reported a 5.6% decline in container traffic from terminals II and III. OLP’s turnover and profitability during this period showed declines of 8.7% and 29.3% respectively. This was not immediately reflected on the stock market board, as the share corrected from €38.5 to €35.75 but then rebounded again to €37.60.

Further expansion of the Piraeus container terminal is considered locked in
Since we are discussing OLP, it should be noted that in Piraeus, those closely following COSCO’s moves say that behind the public statements about “steady commitment” lies a much more ambitious plan that has already begun unfolding in government offices, shipping salons, and business meetings. The Chinese side appears determined not simply to remain at the major port, but to transform it into a multi-level hub for trade, tourism, and logistics across Southeastern Europe. According to reports, COSCO’s management considers the further expansion of the container terminal effectively “locked in,” aiming to add at least one million additional containers of capacity over the coming years. Behind the scenes, it is even said that initial discussions have already begun with international shipping players for new contracts, on the condition that Piraeus will be able to handle larger volumes once conditions in the Suez Canal normalize. Particular interest also surrounds the logistics plan. The approximately €80 million investment for a new 45,000-square-meter center with strong refrigerated-storage infrastructure is viewed by many in the market as the real key to the next phase. Port insiders note that COSCO wants to turn Piraeus into a major gateway for transporting perishable goods to the Balkans and Central Europe, which also explains its insistence on cold-storage infrastructure.

COSCO preparing three new hotels at the major port
At the same time, the Chinese management appears to be investing aggressively in tourism as well. The two new large cruise-ship berths, each 400 meters long, together with new passenger terminals, are considered only the beginning. Executives familiar with the discussions say that COSCO now sees cruising as a second major “pillar” of growth after containers. It is no coincidence that plans are simultaneously advancing for three new hotels in the wider port zone. In Piraeus’s property market, there is already intense discussion that the Chinese side aims to create a complete hospitality ecosystem around the port, so that cruise passengers stay, move around, and spend within a “COSCO zone.” However, behind the investments, the company is also sending clear messages to the Greek state. In closed-door discussions, top executives appear irritated by delays in check-in procedures and passport controls for cruise passengers. The phrase often heard is that “Piraeus can become a top-tier homeport, but not with last decade’s infrastructure.” What is interesting is that COSCO now also appears to be attempting a broader cultural and urban integration into the city. The promotion of the underwater antiquities museum, interventions in the port’s appearance, and links with tourism are not viewed merely as showcase projects, but as part of a “soft power” strategy intended to strengthen social acceptance of its presence in Piraeus.

Tsakos No. 1: Sees Greece as an energy player against a backdrop of LNG, oil, and new shipyards
Delivering a message in favor of realistic energy policy and strengthening Greek shipping, Nikos Tsakos recently appeared particularly optimistic about Greece’s role in the new energy era, emphasizing that the country could evolve into a key player in energy transport and management across the wider region. He clearly supported continued investment in fossil fuels and especially LNG, noting that the global thirst for energy is not diminishing but intensifying. As he stated, U.S. policy now openly supports the hydrocarbons industry, while he also took aim at the previous “criminalization” of shipping and oil activities. He made special reference to the specialized shuttle tanker market — tankers serving offshore oil extraction in deep waters. According to him, this is a sector with high barriers to entry but also stable, long-term returns, in which the Tsakos family has been investing for fifteen years. At the same time, he highlighted LNG and floating storage and regasification units (FSRUs), recalling the group’s experience in China with “NEO Energy.” He even suggested that older-generation LNG carriers could be used in such applications, opening a new market for Greek shipowners.

Tsakos No. 2: Support for reviving Greek shipyards
He also placed special emphasis on the need to revive Greek shipyards, saying that there can be no strong shipping or energy hub without a domestic shipbuilding and repair base. In fact, he revealed that his group has consistently avoided carrying out repairs in neighboring countries, choosing Greece despite the higher cost.

The Kokalis group shares
Shares of the Kokalis group took center stage on Athens Avenue. The merger deal through the absorption of Europe Holdings by CrediaBank acted as a catalyst, unlocking significant capital gains and triggering a coordinated upward move. Europe Holdings recorded a 3.6% “jump” and returned above €2, absorbing part of the shock from the previous session in which losses had exceeded 8%. Investors reacted positively to the attractive terms of the deal, which foresee shareholders receiving around 10% of CrediaBank, alongside a generous capital return of €45.5 million. This development gave an immediate and strong boost to Intracom Holdings, which owns 40% of Europe Holdings. Its stock rose by 5.7% and came within touching distance of €3.7, approaching yearly highs, with the market pricing in both the gains and the strategic agreement to retain the new shares arising from the merger. At the same time, Bally’s Intralot continued its upward breakout, posting gains of 4.3% and closing at €1.167, a seven-month high (October 2025 levels). This rise is also based on the group’s strong fundamentals, with pro-forma turnover surpassing €1 billion amid growth in the online market and liquidity reaching €417.3 million, as well as Euronext’s decision to include Bally’s Intralot in the Euronext Tech Leaders category. Developments are also expected regarding Bally’s Intralot’s deal with Evoke, with a deadline set for June 8.

The dance of mergers begins in the IT sector
Activity behind the scenes in the Greek IT market is now becoming visible. Discussions that until recently were conducted discreetly and underground are beginning to take shape. The next few days may bring the first announcements. In IT, the era of the fragmented market is coming to an end. Greece has already absorbed more than €23 billion from the Recovery Fund, and all implementation deadlines expire within a few months. Conversations in the sector have changed — from “how much was approved” to “how much was completed properly and on time.” The market is now saturated with players that grew quickly but did not have time to mature operationally. Competition is becoming tougher, and margins are narrowing. The demand bubble created by the RRF is now deflating. The sector is regrouping. IDEAL Holding announced a new administrative structure for its IT Group (Byte, Adacom, IdealSW, Bluestream), while Softweb acquired 51% of Alphabit in the cybersecurity sector. Performance Technologies has already begun discussions and signed confidentiality agreements with a Greek company, targeting the artificial intelligence space. The new projects coming are larger, more complex, and demand higher levels of capital and expertise. Small companies that survived thanks to the demand of the last five years can no longer compete on their own for a seat at the table. Joining forces is now a necessity.

Relief in the markets, but Tehran has the final word
The news the markets had been waiting for over the past few weeks came from Washington: an agreement for a two-month ceasefire and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The announcement finds markets in a state of overexcitement due to concerns over inflation and energy. Brent crude had been trading at $103–105 per barrel at the end of the week, but is already down more than 6% on a weekly basis, as the market had been pricing in (and hoping for) a possible agreement. If the ceasefire is ultimately confirmed, the decline in oil prices could accelerate dramatically. Analysts had warned of prices reaching $120–140 in the event of a prolonged blockade. In bonds, the reaction is expected to be intense. The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury had been fluctuating around 4.7%, while the 30-year had exceeded 5%, reflecting fears of prolonged inflation through the energy crisis. On Friday, the 10-year yield had already fallen to 4.56% on the first signs of diplomatic progress. For equities, the backdrop is favorable. On Friday, the Dow closed at 50,579 points, posting a new all-time high. The S&P 500 completed its eighth consecutive positive week, the longest winning streak since the end of 2023. The question now is whether the news from Washington will have the durability and force that Tehran wants it to have.

Turmoil in Turkey
The political situation in Turkey caused turmoil in the markets, with repercussions even for Greek listed companies. The catalyst was a court ruling that annulled the congress of the main opposition party, CHP, and effectively removed its leader, Özgür Özel. Markets interpreted this as a sign of greater political instability and possible interference in the democratic process. The BIST 100 index fell around 6% in a single day, even triggering a temporary trading halt. Overall, during May the Turkish stock market has lost nearly 15%. The Turkish lira reached a new all-time low, at around 45.7 lira per dollar. Intervention by the central authorities somewhat stabilized the situation and there was a rebound, but conditions remain fluid. Listed on the Athens Stock Exchange, Titan (Traçim Cement near Istanbul), Elton Chemicals (subsidiary), and Alumil (factory) all have subsidiaries operating in the Turkish market, though with only a small contribution — around 3% — to consolidated turnover.

Many new companies, few new jobs
The United States is recording a record number of new businesses. The only problem is that these businesses are not hiring the way they used to. Official figures from February 2026 show that monthly applications for new businesses in the U.S. reached 496,443, a level that remains structurally higher than any period before the pandemic. Of these, applications with a real likelihood of creating a payroll business did not exceed 145,918 — around 30% of the total. Twenty years ago, that figure stood at 60%. Even among those 145,918, only one in three ultimately becomes a business with actual employees. According to data compiled by GREY Journal, a complete technological “arsenal” for the modern solopreneur now costs between $3,000 and $12,000 per year — a reduction of 95% to 98% compared with the cost of hiring equivalent staff. Artificial intelligence has eliminated the need to build teams of employees across a range of business functions, from marketing and customer service to accounting and software development. From 2019 through mid-2025, the percentage of new startups with only one founder surged from 23.7% to 36.3% — an increase of 53% in six years. Today, the famous “solopreneurs” in the U.S. are estimated at around 29.8 million, generating combined revenues of $1.7 trillion. Entrepreneurship is statistically flourishing, but it is not producing jobs. One worker is replacing many thanks to technology. Profitability increases, but society suffers from fewer employment opportunities.

The “boring startups” with huge profits
Everyone today talks about artificial intelligence, robotics, and space companies. There is, however, another category of businesses — quiet, absent from headlines — which repeatedly proves statistically more profitable for investors. These are the so-called “boring startups.” They are software companies solving practical problems in construction, logistics, insurance, accounting, healthcare, and agriculture. They are “vertical SaaS” companies that build software designed exclusively for one specific industry. They show impressive customer retention rates — triple those of horizontal platforms — with remarkable net revenue retention rates of 130%. There are many examples. ServiceTitan, software for plumbers and HVAC technicians, reports a gross retention rate above 95%. That level corresponds to Fortune 500 companies. The software does not simply manage appointments; it covers technician dispatch, invoicing, payroll, and payments — everything a technical services business needs to operate. Once software becomes the backbone of a business, you do not replace it easily. According to Redpoint data, horizontal SaaS declined 35% over the last 12 months, while vertical SaaS remained essentially stable. Horizontal software is quickly becoming commoditized as AI agents take over general functions. Industry-specific software, however, is protected by proprietary data and specialized workflows that are not easily copied. Similar “vertical services” exist in sectors such as healthcare, construction, agriculture, and specialized manufacturing. Many businesses in these sectors still operate with spreadsheets and handwritten processes.

Fund managers have changed strategy
Bank of America’s latest monthly survey, covering 200 institutional fund managers overseeing $517 billion in assets, records a dramatic shift in investment strategy. Allocation to equities has exploded upward. Managers are now overweight equities by +50% relative to benchmark indices. That figure is the highest since January 2022 — just before that year’s major correction. The monthly jump, from +13% in April to +50% in May, was the largest ever recorded in the survey. At the same time, cash holdings fell to 3.9%. Bank of America’s own playbook states that when cash drops below 4%, it historically triggers a “sell signal.” Cyclical stocks now outperform defensive stocks by the widest margin since January 2018, while bonds represent the most neglected asset class since June 2022. Seventy-three percent of managers surveyed by BofA describe “long positions in semiconductors” as the market’s most crowded trade. Last April, that figure was only 24%.

Germany changed its migration policy
Ten years after Angela Merkel’s “Willkommenskultur,” Germany has decided that from now on it will pay refugees and migrants to leave the country. The German Interior Ministry announced that it is considering increasing the voluntary return bonus for Syrian refugees from the current roughly €1,000 to €8,000 — an eightfold increase in the incentive to leave the country. According to ministry data, more than 951,000 Syrians live in Germany. Of these, around 500,000 hold only temporary residence permits. Hesse Interior Minister Roman Poseck argues that “payments in the range of four-digit or even low five-digit sums per person often constitute a gain for the state when compared with the long-term cost of social benefits.” If the program were applied to the 500,000 people under temporary protection and even 20% — that is, 100,000 individuals — responded, the fiscal cost would approach €800 million. The amount is large, but probably smaller than the equivalent decade-long cost in benefits, housing, and education. Chancellor Friedrich Merz has announced that 80% of Germany’s Syrians should return to their home country within three years. This is a goal that the voluntary route, with enhanced incentives, could help achieve without the legal complexities of forced deportations. So far, however, the results have been meager. In 2025, only 3,678 Syrians voluntarily returned to their country from Germany. Seventy-five percent of them returned without using the state incentive program. In other words, those who want to leave are leaving anyway. The major challenge lies with those who have built their lives in Germany — and for them, no amount of money is sufficient.