The poll by Pulse, presented on SKAI’s main news bulletin, recorded the reshuffling in the political landscape after the formal announcement of the creation of ELAS by Alexis Tsipras and “Elpida” by Maria Karystianou.

New Democracy records an increase of 1.5 percentage points in voting intention, but due to the decrease in undecided voters, it remains at 29.5% in the estimated vote share, with a comfortable lead of 14 points over Tsipras’ party, which records 15.5%. Pulse finds Mitsotakis leading Tsipras by 13 points in suitability for Prime Minister: he receives 30% versus 17% for Alexis Tsipras, whose presence apparently increased New Democracy’s rallying effect. Ten points behind, at just 7%, is Nikos Androulakis in suitability, who once again falls below his party’s percentage.

In this measurement, PASOK appears in third place (11.5% estimated vote share, down from 14.5% in May), with a lead of half a point over Maria Karystianou’s “Elpida,” recording losses of 2 points in voting intention compared to Pulse’s early May survey. The Hellenic Solution also loses two points (6.5% estimated vote share from 9%), while Course of Freedom loses three points (5% estimated vote share from 9% in the previous survey).

Limited losses are recorded by the Communist Party of Greece (KKE)—it loses half a point in voting intention and is in fifth place behind Maria Karystianou’s party, with 7% estimated vote share. Latinopoulou‘s Voice of Reason and Varoufakis‘s MERA25 appear disconnected from the Tsipras and Karystianou parties, recording stable percentages and narrowly securing entry into Parliament.

Where Tsipras and Karystianou get their support from

The survey confirms that ELAS is “absorbing” SYRIZA, as 55% of voters who voted in the June 2023 elections move to Alexis Tsipras’s new party. The same applies to 10% of KKE voters, 7% of PASOK voters, and 4% of New Democracy voters, which had received 40.56% at that time.

Alexis Tsipras has his largest voter pool in the centre-left (34%) and left (27%), but secures only 10% of centrist voters and 8% of those who declare they do not belong politically anywhere.

By contrast, Maria Karystianou receives 25% of those who identify as politically unaligned, as well as 9% of centre-right voters, 8% of centrists and right-wing voters, and only 4% in the centre-left and 2% in the left. According to the survey, “Elpida” gains 9% of those who voted for New Democracy in the June 2023 elections, as well as 6% of PASOK voters, 3% of SYRIZA voters, and 2% of KKE voters.

It is noted that protest voting stands at only 6% for PASOK, rises to 10% for ELAS, and reaches 15% for “Elpida” of Maria Karystianou.

On governing coalitions

54% of New Democracy voters say they want their party to participate in government only if it can govern alone with an absolute majority. 37% say that for participation in a coalition government, New Democracy must necessarily be the dominant partner, and only 6% accept that it would not be the dominant partner in the governing scheme.

By contrast, among PASOK voters the share who accept government participation even if their party is not the dominant partner reaches 20%, in Tsipras’ party 29%, and in Maria Karystianou’s “Elpida” 34%.

On a “Samaras party”

Potential voting intention for a “Samaras party” shows a decrease of one point from 12% to 11%, with those who declare themselves certain voters remaining “stuck” at 3%, as in the previous survey by the company. Among intended New Democracy voters, its appeal is very low, with certain voting at 2%, as well as among PASOK and ELAS voters.

However, the same does not apply among Maria Karystianou’s voters: 7% of this group declares certainty in voting for a “Samaras party,” with the former prime minister recording a potential voter pool of 23% among Karystianou’s voters. It reaches 6% among voters in the “grey zone,” measured at 13.5% in Pulse’s survey.