The first Marc poll conducted after the creation of two new political parties, published by Proto Thema, records a major reshuffling within the opposition. While the ruling New Democracy (ND) maintains a lead of 15.1 percentage points over the newly established ELAS party, Alexis Tsipras’ party now holds a clear second place. Meanwhile, PASOK is fighting to retain third place against Maria Karystianou’s new party, Hope for Democracy.

Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis leads Alexis Tsipras by 14.6 percentage points in suitability for the premiership, with 31% compared to Tsipras’ 16.4%. Both leaders score higher than their respective parties, unlike PASOK leader Nikos Androulakis, who trails even Maria Karystianou, receiving only 5.2%. Notably, only one in four PASOK voters considers Androulakis the most suitable candidate for prime minister.

In the vote estimate, New Democracy stands at 30.8%, ELAS at 15.7%, Hope for Democracy at 10.9%, and PASOK at 10.3%, representing a loss of 3.2 percentage points for PASOK compared to Marc’s previous survey. All of the established parties appear to be losing support.

New Democracy’s percentage is also down by 1.4 points. However, Marc analysts explain that this is largely a technical issue. The emergence of ELAS and Hope for Democracy appears to be attracting people who did not vote in the June 2023 election but now say they intend to participate. As a result, pollsters have had to reweight their samples, which temporarily lowers the percentages of existing parties. Whether this trend persists will need to be confirmed in future surveys.

Uncertainty Among Voters

The poll projects an eight-party parliament. However, Voice of Reason, which barely enters Parliament, is estimated at 3.7%, a figure that falls within the statistical margin of error.

Marc also measured how confident voters are in their current choice. New Democracy voters show the greatest certainty, with 85.9% saying they are “very” or “fairly” sure of their vote. Only 13.9% say they might change their minds or are not certain. ELAS follows, with voter uncertainty at 18.9%.

The highest levels of uncertainty are found among supporters of:

• Greek Solution (48.3%)
• Course of Freedom (40.7%)
• PASOK (35.1%)
• Hope for Democracy (33.6%)
• Communist Party of Greece (KKE) (25.2%)

The Key to a Parliamentary Majority

Marc also conducted a detailed analysis of the undecided vote, which now accounts for more than 11–12% of the electorate and is considered crucial to whether the ruling party can secure an outright parliamentary majority.

Four out of ten undecided voters (41.8%) voted for New Democracy in June 2023. Since they have not yet moved to another party, analysts believe many may ultimately return to ND once election choices become clearer. The government also benefits from relatively positive evaluations, with overall government approval at 34.8% and approval of the prime minister slightly higher at 35.3%.

At the same time, nearly one in five former SYRIZA voters remains undecided, representing a potential reserve of roughly two percentage points for Alexis Tsipras’ party. By contrast, only one in ten former PASOK voters is currently undecided, limiting PASOK’s potential gains to about one percentage point.

The ideological profile of undecided voters is also noteworthy. One in four places themselves in the political center. Among the rest:

• 7.5% identify as right-wing
• 14.1% as center-right
• 12.7% as center-left
• 10.7% as left-wing
• Nearly one-third report no political affiliation at all

Within this undecided group, Maria Karystianou’s Hope for Democracy leads voting intentions with 17.3%, followed by New Democracy at 16.5%, while ELAS and PASOK both receive single-digit support.