The message Washington delivered to Moscow through CIA Director John Ratcliffe does not appear to have changed Vladimir Putin’s calculations.

According to The Washington Post, the Russian president believes that the United States has been weakened by its prolonged war with Iran, and that the current circumstances create room for greater Russian pressure on Ukraine and more broadly on Europe.

Against this backdrop, rather than showing any sign of “backing down” in response to the American warnings, Putin is preparing to appear alongside Chinese President Xi Jinping and hold a series of meetings with leaders of countries that maintain close or strategic ties with Moscow.

The timing of the two developments is indicative of the strategy being pursued by the Kremlin: on the one hand, it is keeping its channel of communication with Washington open through the intelligence services.

On the other hand, it is seeking to demonstrate that Russia has alternative diplomatic alliances and does not intend to operate exclusively within the framework the U.S. is attempting to establish—namely, urging Moscow to move toward a diplomatic end to the war in Ukraine because… it does not appear to be winning it.

The CIA Director’s Secret Mission

As is known, John Ratcliffe’s visit to the Russian capital took place under conditions of the utmost secrecy. It was the first known visit by a CIA director to Moscow since November 2021, when the agency’s then-director, William Burns, attempted to deter the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Ratcliffe did not meet with Putin personally. He held talks with senior Russian intelligence officials, including FSB Director Alexander Bortnikov and Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) Director Sergei Naryshkin. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov nevertheless confirmed that the Russian president was immediately briefed on the substance of the meetings.

According to The Washington Post, the CIA director’s mission was preceded by a classified U.S. assessment that the Kremlin views the United States as militarily and politically weakened because of its involvement in the war with Iran. The depletion of U.S. stocks of critical weapons systems, such as Patriot and Tomahawk missiles, is reportedly reinforcing Moscow’s perception that Washington has limited capacity to respond to a new Russian escalation.

Ratcliffe reportedly warned his interlocutors that further intensification of the war in Ukraine could ultimately work against Russia and push Donald Trump closer to Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s position.

Meanwhile, according to The New York Times, the CIA director presented the Russian side with a particularly negative assessment of the country’s military and economic situation. The message was that Moscow should engage in serious negotiations to end the war before its position deteriorates further.

The U.S. side argued that Russian forces have suffered heavy losses without achieving comparable territorial gains, while Ratcliffe reportedly expressed doubts about whether Putin is receiving a complete and accurate picture of the battlefield from his advisers.

However, the U.S. intervention was not accompanied by a specific threat regarding the consequences Russia would face if Putin chose to disregard the CIA’s assessment and continue military operations. So far, moreover, there is no indication that the Kremlin is reconsidering its strategy.

Donald Trump sought to play down the significance of the trip, describing it as “semi-routine,” while expressing confidence that Putin would not attack a NATO country. Reuters sources nevertheless confirmed that the possibility of a Russian operation against a NATO member state was raised during the talks, although it remains unclear whether this was the main focus of the visit.

In Bishkek with Xi, Modi and Pezeshkian

Against this backdrop, Putin is preparing for a diplomatic marathon in Bishkek, where the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit will take place.

As Kremlin adviser Yuri Ushakov announced, the Russian president will meet with Xi Jinping on August 31. His schedule also includes meetings with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, and leaders of Central Asian countries.

The meetings with Xi and Pezeshkian take on particular importance. China remains Russia’s most important economic and strategic partner, while Moscow’s relations with Tehran are at the center of U.S. attention. Russia’s support for Iran was reportedly among the issues discussed during Ratcliffe’s visit as well.

Putin’s presence at the summit and his series of meetings give the Kremlin an opportunity to project the image of a Russia that is not internationally isolated. At the same time, they send a message to the West that Moscow continues to have powerful interlocutors and room for maneuver, even when it receives direct warnings from Washington.

The question now is whether the CIA director’s intervention can influence Putin’s next moves, or whether the Russian president will maintain his assessment that U.S. involvement on multiple fronts gives the Kremlin a window of opportunity to continue—or even escalate—its pressure.