Marine Le Pen remains in the lead ahead of the presidential election, while her far-left rival, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, comes second in most of the scenarios tested, according to a poll published today, highlighting the growing polarisation of the electorate as the Emmanuel Macron era draws to a close.

Le Pen would win between 33% and 36% of the vote in the first round, depending on the scenario tested by pollster Toluna Harris Interactive in a survey conducted from 8 to 10 September.

Mélenchon, the candidate of the far-left La France Insoumise (LFI) party, appears to make it through to the second round in at least three of the five scenarios examined, while he is tied for second place in a fourth scenario. Le Pen appears to beat him comfortably in the second round.

Macron’s former prime minister, Édouard Philippe, is the only center-right candidate to rank ahead of Mélenchon in one of the scenarios tested, while he is tied with him in another. The others trail behind him in every scenario.

The center ground sidelined

As Macron’s second and final term draws to a close, the deeply unpopular president leaves behind a decimated political center and a weakened economy, opening up space for hard-line parties such as LFI and Le Pen’s National Rally.

Mélenchon has already run for president three times, in 2012, 2017 and 2022, but has never managed to reach the second round. Le Pen has also stood three times. She reached the second round in 2017 and 2022, but lost to Macron.