Hello. The most interesting event of the week that began is Rubio’s visit to Athens. Today, the program of the U.S. Secretary of State will be fully finalized, so we will see what else it will include apart from his one-on-one meeting with Gerapetritis and the expanded discussion within the framework of the Strategic Dialogue. Mitsotakis, meanwhile, who stopped by his office yesterday morning for a visit, and I’m told saw both Gerapetritis and his diplomatic adviser Katerina Nasika, who are handling the preparations together with Alexandra Papadopoulou, will meet him on Wednesday afternoon at the Maximos Mansion, after returning from Split, Croatia, where he will be earlier for the MED9 Euro-Mediterranean Summit.

Elections in the Spring—and beyond…

Various rumors have now been circulating that Mitsotakis is considering, because of a difficult winter, springing a surprise by calling elections at the end of November. I can tell you with absolute certainty: no, he is not going to do it, because quite simply by now it would be like him saying… I made a mistake by not pressing the button before people turned on their radiators and inflation flared up. He is not saying it, he is not doing it, and in fact he may ultimately even go for June, after the Panhellenic exams—in other words, at the very end.

John Lennon and greenery for everyone…

At the same time, K.M. is carefully and without passion methodically closing fronts with businessmen and media moguls. I think all prime ministers would do the same in his position. Who doesn’t want peace and good will (sic) on the road to the ballot boxes? Now, as for the matters between them, etc., well, they will work things out; there is greenery for everyone, as an old businessman from the scene told me.

Samaras’s anxiety…

“Why has Samaras made two little videos within 48 hours?” I’m being asked. One of them, in particular, features the familiar eccentricity of “I ask my cat and the cat asks its tail.” Well, the first one, about von der Leyen, Skopje and some saint’s bones, whatever they may be, is “speaking” to Kasidiaris’s audience, from whom Samaras is at risk of being humiliated. They had him at 5–6% without Kasidiaris, and now, when Kasidiaris enters the polling equation, they bring him down to 3%. The second spot, about the cover-up involving the rubble, theoretically targets Karystianou’s audience. Fine, all that—but we are still waiting for the party, right?

Announcements on industrial electricity

The meeting that took place a few days ago between the leadership of the Hellenic Federation of Enterprises (SEV) and the Ministry of Environment was by no means accidental. It appears that tomorrow, Tuesday, when the Association’s General Assembly is held at the Athens Concert Hall, K.M. will announce measures concerning industrial electricity—measures that the industrial sector has been requesting for quite some time, in order, on the one hand, not to lose competitiveness and, on the other, to prevent any new price increases resulting from higher production costs from being passed on to store shelves. I am told that the final support figures will be finalized today, but in reality the two available European tools for this situation will be used: METSAF (Middle East crisis Temporary State aid Framework), the Temporary State Aid Framework for the Crisis in the Middle East, which was approved by the European Commission on April 29, 2026, with the aim of mitigating sharp increases in the cost of fuels, energy and fertilizers in vulnerable sectors; and CISAF (Clean Industrial State Aid Framework), the Clean Industrial State Aid Framework, which aims to support the development of clean energy, industrial decarbonization and the green transition. In reality, METSAF operates complementarily with CISAF, allowing member states to increase the aid limits for electricity consumption.

Memories and absences

The Anglo-Saxons use this phrase to describe nostalgia, the “plunging” into memories. That is more or less what today’s event for New Democracy’s anniversary will be like, taking place at the old O.SY. bus depot opposite Technopolis and featuring plenty of retro elements, from posters and historic front pages covering ND’s victories. The idea is for ND members to go and have their photographs taken with the party’s symbols—the torch has also made a comeback—to have a glass of wine and reminisce about the old days. Mitsotakis will speak in the same spirit, with a microphone on the stage, nothing overly staged. In any case, the absences will obviously be discussed. Apart from the obvious one, that of Samaras, Karamanlis, although he was invited by the office of Secretary-General Kyranakis, has business in Xanthi with SEKΕ, the tobacco cooperative, and will return to Athens so that on Wednesday he can speak at an event organized by the Chinese Embassy—exactly the day the U.S. Secretary of State Rubio will be here. Meimarakis, for his part, says that if the event were taking place on Sunday, he would of course attend, but today, Monday, he has a plenary session in Strasbourg and absolutely has to be present.

In Belgrade for the Vertical Corridor

Shortly before Marco Rubio’s arrival, and given the strong American interest in the “Vertical Corridor” project, Energy Minister Stavros Papastavrou is traveling to Belgrade today for the second quadrilateral meeting with the energy ministers of Serbia, Bulgaria and North Macedonia. At a time of geopolitical uncertainty, Greece is strengthening energy cooperation with its neighbors, with an emphasis on interconnections and diversification of sources and supply routes. The logic is that the Vertical Corridor will offer an alternative to routes through Turkey and limit Ankara’s room to exercise energy influence.

I’m in a state of emergency…

Moody’s downgraded credit conditions in Greece and is calling for a faster return of cured loans to the banks in order to reduce the volume of non-performing loans in the economy. S&P highlights the concentration of financing by the systemic banks in shipping, tourism and energy and, in a negative scenario, sees the banking system coming under pressure from refinancing and the repricing of loans. Scope—in fairness, with some elegance—notes that in the first half of the year NPLs increased marginally, by 0.2%, compared with December 2025. During the same period, the SSM, because of the international situation, asked Greek banks to exercise particular caution regarding credit expansion, both in the domestic market and in their foreign subsidiaries, such as in Bulgaria. Different kinds of issues that have arisen in recent days nevertheless share a common denominator in a period of great international uncertainty, while the Stock Exchange is now going through its “dry spell.” Dry because the upgrade has taken place, the passive funds of developed markets bought through the end of September and supported the stock market, while actively managed funds have no reason to hurry—and, in addition, we have the MSCI upgrade ahead of us in May, when the pre-election period will be in full swing.

…in a tragic phase (Nikos Makropoulos… for the markets)

The Athens Stock Exchange, therefore, does not have many events ahead of it that could affect developments, but defenses are beginning to emerge, with the “heavyweight” companies in the General Index bringing forward their announcements (interim dividends, results, etc.), while share buyback programs have also caught fire in order to balance the situation. The first two trading sessions of October, with transactions on the order of half a billion, provided an opportunity to lock in profits. From today onward, developments appear to be increasingly influenced by international factors, which are anything but encouraging. Volkswagen halted all its collective labor agreements; in France, €43 billion in cuts are being implemented to reduce the deficit by 0.4%; and in the United States, the economy created just 29,000 jobs in September, versus the 84,000 expected by economists. Unemployment rose to 4.2%, and the July–August figures were revised downward by 60,000 jobs. Wall Street celebrated the bad news because it believed the possibility of another interest-rate hike was receding. The Nasdaq was up 1.2% and the S&P 500 0.7%. On September 16, Kevin Warsh’s Fed raised interest rates for the first time since 2023, to 3.75%–4%, and 16 of its 19 members projected at least one more increase this year. Immediately afterward, the market was assigning a 51% probability to another move on October 27–28. After Friday, the probability fell to 14%–23%, depending on the measure. The background lies in the details. The three-month average is 51,000 jobs per month, the number needed to keep the labor market in balance. Unemployment rose because more people are looking for work. Wages increased by just 0.1%. Bank of America reminds us that inflation remains the judge, with the price data due out on October 14. The bonds were not convinced either, with the 10-year closing at 5.3% and the 2-year at 4.8%. In Frankfurt, the ECB makes its decision on October 29, 24 hours after the Fed. It has already raised the deposit rate to 2.50%, and the market assigns an 87% probability that it will stay there. If Washington pauses, Frankfurt does not need to chase the dollar, and Euribor, which determines the installment on every floating-rate loan, gets some breathing room. If the October 14 inflation figure proves the market wrong, the bill will reach Athens as well.

ACS, Lamda, Credia: The three milestones of October

For the rest, let’s add three milestones for the market. Specifically, by the end of October we will know whether the Germans at GLS (General Logistics Systems) will exercise their option to acquire 80% of ACS. GLS acquired 20% of ACS from the Quest Group for €74 million in 2024, while the 80%, as previously announced, has a minimum price of €296 million. Earlier, on October 14, an extraordinary meeting has been scheduled at the European Central Bank’s Single Supervisory Mechanism (SSM) with the management of CrediaBank. The meeting concerns the completion of the agreement for CrediaBank’s acquisition of 70.03% of HSBC Malta for €200 million. And finally, sometime during October we will know whether an agreement will ultimately be reached between Lamda Development and Eon Capital, with an estimated value of €400 million.

The burden of debt remains at Iatriko Athinon

At Iatriko Athinon, it appears that they are still looking for a remedy for the loans, as the balance sheet remains burdened and liquidity is at levels requiring attention. In the first half of 2026, the Group did increase revenue by 3.8% to €148.3 million and EBITDA by 17% to €20 million; however, net profit was limited to just €52,000, while at the parent-company level losses of €3.1 million were recorded. The Group’s total debt amounts to €184.1 million, with cash of just €11.3 million, pushing net debt to €172.8 million, from €151.1 million at the end of 2025. As a result, the leverage ratio rose to 62.3% from 59.2%. At the same time, current liabilities continue to exceed current assets, by €6.5 million at the Group level, although the “hole” has been significantly reduced from €67.9 million at the end of 2025. The €65 million refinancing was decisive in this picture, as it shifted a significant portion of short-term borrowing to a later maturity. There is also an available credit line, as stated in the financial statements, while management says it does not expect liquidity problems in the coming months…

Defense from Metlen — Analysts point the way to higher levels

Metlen appears to have strong defenses against the negative climate prevailing on the Athens Stock Exchange at the start of October. The share closed on Friday at €49, up 1.3%, while turnover of €19.3 million and volume of close to 400,000 shares confirm the strong investor interest. This move keeps Metlen close to this year’s highs of €50-plus, at a time when investor selectivity is intensifying. The interest, however, is not limited to the stock’s short-term resilience. Recent analyst reports point to particularly strong upside potential: JPMorgan has a target of €64, Wood €65, Alpha Finance-Axia €72.5, while Edison places the indicative valuation of the share at €75.3. These estimates reinforce the picture that Metlen still has “fuel” for higher levels.

Thrace Plastics: Cautiously positive in Paris

The management of Thrace Plastics, as part of its participation in the Midcap Event in Paris, reiterated that third-quarter operating profitability will exceed that of the corresponding period of 2025, maintaining the positive momentum of the first half. Likewise, it estimates that the conditions are in place for higher operating profitability for full-year 2026, although it is not providing a specific quantitative target because of geopolitical uncertainty, elevated energy costs and pricing difficulties. A positive element is the securing of the required quantities of raw materials for the coming months. The investment program amounts to approximately €30 million for 2026, excluding acquisitions, bringing cumulative investment spending for the 2021–2026 period to more than €200 million. Priority areas include expansion into FIBC bulk bags, strengthening production capacity in rigid packaging, and improving efficiency through automation. At the same time, the acquisition of BHA Holdings in the first quarter, with annual sales of approximately €23 million and EBITDA of approximately €2.5 million, provides access to the Australian and New Zealand markets. Overall, the outlook remains positive, with an emphasis on investment returns and maintaining a strong balance sheet.

Kri Kri: The sales target and the expensive valuation

Kri Kri has stabilized its sales target estimate for 2026 at €400 million, up from more than €390 million previously, forecasting an increase of 21.7% compared with 2025. However, increased cost pressures due to the prolonged conflict in the Middle East are leading to a slight revision of the EBIT operating-profit target to €57–58 million, from approximately €60 million. Despite the revision, operating profitability is expected to increase by 35.7%–38.1%, with a margin of 14.3%–14.5%, compared with 12.8% in 2025. Strong demand for Greek yogurt and limited available production capacity are supporting an investment program of €127 million for the 2026–2030 period, aimed at increasing capacity by 196% compared with 2025, almost tripling it. Investments of €26–30 million are forecast for this year, while the estimated tax benefits to be recognized in the financial statements amount to €5.85 million in 2026 and €12.08 million in 2027. Overall, the picture remains one of growth, with the key challenge being to convert the additional capacity into sales while keeping costs under control. On the trading board, however, many analysts believe that the stock has reached fully valued levels, as it is trading at approximately 20.9x P/E and 15.3x EV/EBITDA for 2026.

GEK TERNA: The market sees a new upward cycle

GEK TERNA stood out among the blue chips in Friday’s session, gaining 1.86% and closing at €43.76, recovering part of the losses from the previous session (-3.24%). Despite the positive reaction, the stock still has some way to go before reaching its all-time highs in the €47–48 range. The interesting part, however, lies in the analysts’ estimates, which place the bar considerably higher, at levels above €50. Recent reports outline significant upside potential. UBS has a price target of €54, Jefferies €55 and Santander €62, while among domestic brokerage firms, Euroxx sets a target of €55, Alpha Finance-Axia €55.2 and NBG Securities €60. This picture shows that the market recognizes strong growth prospects in GEK TERNA, with infrastructure and its investment footprint serving as key catalysts for the next phase.

The interim dividends of the REICs

For the rest, two more Real Estate Investment Companies (REICs) are proceeding with the distribution of an interim dividend from their 2026 profits: Trade Estates REIC, which is associated with the Fourlis Group, and Ble Kedros REIC, which is associated with the Evmorfidis Group, respectively. Both made the same move last year, for the 2025 financial year, and they will do so again this year, with their boards of directors having already taken the relevant decisions at the end of last week. Earlier in September, BriQ Properties REIC also decided to distribute an interim dividend for the 2026 financial year (€0.10 per share), for a total amount of €4.77 million. The company, which is associated with the Fessas Group, will proceed with the ex-dividend date and payment in November. TRASTOR REIC, which is associated with Piraeus Group, also announced several days ago its decision to distribute an interim dividend for the 2026 financial year, with a total amount of approximately €7.9 million, or €0.02 per share, based on the balance sheet as of June 30, 2026.

Plaisio’s Gerardos goes into advertising

Kostas Gerardos, the main shareholder and head of Plaisio, has made a new business move. Specifically, on Friday, October 2, the company was incorporated under the, to say the least, original name “Blue. Dogs. Flying. Noodles M.A.E.”, with the distinctive title “Flying Noodles.” Its registered office is at 24 Stournari Street, and among the company’s… 28 corporate purposes, I would single out the following: “The provision, by any manner or means, of all kinds of advertising services, as well as communication and public-relations services, and in general every work or activity involving the provision of services or production of goods aimed at the advertising promotion of persons, services or goods, as well as every activity relating to types, systems and methods of communication.” “The intermediation, brokerage, sale and purchase, by any manner or means, of movable property via the internet, and in general the carrying out of all e-commerce transactions and the management of online stores (e-commerce), including the storage, delivery and home distribution of products traded through them.” “The provision of services for the design, construction, renewal, updating, maintenance and monitoring of the operation of websites, social media platforms and pages; the provision, on behalf of third parties, of web hosting and all kinds of digital services; as well as the preparation, organization, execution or commissioning of the execution or production of any kind of competition or game broadcast through television or radio programs, the internet or social media, on behalf of third parties, whether natural or legal persons.” The initial share capital was set at €200,000 and was paid in by Konstantinos Gerardos, who lists as his residential address the headquarters of “Plaisio” in Magoula, Attica.

Business with helicopters comes at a cost

Apart from Blue Dogs Flying. Noodles, however, Kostas Gerardos of Plaisio is also a participant in Hoper, founded by Dimitris Memmos, one of the people who created MarineTraffic and one of Greece’s most successful startup founders, alongside, among others, Giorgos Papaioannidis of Saronic Ferries. Hoper is the first company in Greece to operate helicopter flights on an airline-like model: scheduled routes where the traveler books an individual seat. In 2025, its first full year of operations, it carried more than 1,000 passengers and sales soared to €2.59 million from €665,900, with the gross result turning profitable. Losses, however, widened to €1.66 million and cash holdings fell to €98,900. Now Hoper is expanding its scope further. Through a recent amendment to its articles of association, it added activities such as aircraft repair and maintenance, professional pilot training and data services. The move is consistent with its plans to obtain Part-145 certification, the European approval for aircraft maintenance organizations, as well as with the international expansion of its platform. The plans also include contributing to the licensing of a heliport in Keratea, in order to reduce operational dependence on Athens Airport.

PPC’s 80 seconds

Last Thursday, Accenture announced its financial results. Revenue of $74.2 billion, new bookings of $84.5 billion and more than 814,000 employees. During the conference call with analysts, Chair and CEO Julie Sweet chose examples from three sectors to demonstrate the Group’s reach. She mentioned logistics, pharmaceuticals and energy. The energy example was PPC. The CEO devoted approximately 80 seconds of her address to Wall Street analysts to PPC. She described PPC as one of the leading early examples of enterprise-wide transformation through artificial intelligence. Accenture, she said, has worked over the past few years on the Group’s digital core. Now, PPC’s management is placing Artificial Intelligence at the center of the next phase, as PPC transforms from a traditional electricity company into a “power tech” company. Sweet spoke with figures. In energy management, “Superintelligence,” as the PotUS likes to call it, will cut analysis time in half, allowing traders to make faster decisions on pricing and risk hedging. In retail, where the PPC Group has 8.6 million customers in Greece and Romania, the goal is to increase value per customer. “PPC is not adding Artificial Intelligence to its existing processes; it is redesigning them,” she said. She added that people remain in charge, agents execute, and staff are being retrained in parallel. Eighteen days ago, PPC signed a memorandum with Amazon Web Services for the data center in Agios Dimitrios. Separately, the two companies are exploring a multi-year partnership in cloud and AI.

Fragou’s secret is not in the forecasts

Capital Link — New York. What Angeliki Fragou said at the Maritime Forum last week reveals the way she reads shipping and its cycles. And her basic principle is rather simple. You do not need to know exactly what will happen tomorrow. You do, however, need to have made sure that you can react when it happens. The head of Navios Maritime Partners spoke of a unique moment in history, in which wars, economic nationalism, artificial intelligence and rising defense spending are simultaneously reshaping trade flows and creating new sources of demand. Behind this observation, however, lies a very specific business philosophy. Fragou does not place the emphasis on forecasting the next shipping cycle, but on the financial strength and operational flexibility that allow a company to move within it. In other words, liquidity when conditions become difficult, resilience when markets come under pressure, and freedom of movement when an opportunity presents itself. In shipping, everyone tries to calculate when the market will turn, where freight rates will go and which vessel values will prevail. Fragou’s philosophy is different. Don’t bet on correctly guessing tomorrow. Make sure you have the strength to take advantage of tomorrow, whatever it may be.

One million a day for tankers and Tsakos’s forecasts

At the same Forum, the tanker people had every reason to smile. And Nikos Tsakos, founder and CEO of NYSE-listed TEN, summed it up in five words: “We are going from record to record.” This is not an exaggeration. The market is now recording freight rates that, until recently, would have been considered unthinkable, with VLCCs exceeding $1 million per day on a round-voyage basis, while a recent fixture for a high-risk voyage with loading inside the Strait of Hormuz reached $1.9 million per day. And at TEN they do not see the party ending anytime soon. CFO Haris Kosmatos speaks of another two to three years of a strong market, due to new trade flows and the need to replenish oil inventories, estimating that even the orderbook is not sufficient to derail this momentum. Tsakos sees behind the numbers a market where the most expensive thing is no longer the freight rate, but not being able to find a ship to carry your cargo.

The dividends of the golden age of containerships

Keep an eye on the dividends being distributed at this time by Greek-owned containership companies, because there is a message behind the amounts. Costamare, controlled by Kostis Konstantakopoulos, continues its distributions as normal, but the “signal” came from Danaos, controlled by John Coustas. Namely, $6 per share, with $5 of that being a special dividend. The total bill is approaching $110 million. In shipping and brokerage offices, such moves are always read twice. Because nobody returns that much money to shareholders when they are worried about the next day’s cash position. Especially when, at the same time, they continue ordering ships and opening new investment opportunities. Danaos and Costamare have a total of 50 containerships under construction. So here we do not have a choice between dividends and growth. We have both. And that is perhaps the real message to Wall Street. After the huge profits of previous years, Greece’s powerful container-shipping players feel comfortable enough to distribute millions while simultaneously building their next fleet.

Patek Philippe is not for sale

Everyone knows the luxury Patek Philippe watches. The slogan that accompanies them is that you do not own a Patek; you merely look after it for the next generation. When, however, 88-year-old Honorary Chairman of the Group Philippe Stern, father of Thierry, died, rumors began circulating in the market that the sale of his shares was simply a matter of time. A few days ago, Patek Philippe Chairman and owner Thierry Stern told journalists, at the opening of the exhibition in Milan, that the “house is not for sale,” adding that he will hand the business over to his two sons, without revealing when. His elder son, Adrien, has been working alongside him for about 18 months. The younger one, Tristan, is expected to join in a year. Morgan Stanley estimates Patek Philippe’s annual turnover at approximately 2.5 billion Swiss francs, with production of around 75,000 watches. That works out to roughly 33,000 francs per watch, on average. Earlier, in 2019, Berenberg estimated that a sale would fetch €7–9 billion. Stern responded at the time that the rumor had been circulating for 30 years. The family has owned the house since 1932, when brothers Charles and Jean Stern, dial suppliers, bought it during the Great Depression. Thierry, a fourth-generation family member, has been chairman since 2009. The CEO is Laurent Bernasconi, who is not a member of the family. “I am alone; I do not belong to a group,” he said in Milan. There, the Group put on an impressive display intended to signal its aggressive ambitions. It is the largest exhibition the house has ever staged, covering 2,900 square meters and featuring more than 500 watches, with free admission through October 18. Swiss watch exports increased by 9.1% in August and by 1.7% over the first eight months of the year, reaching 17.24 billion francs. Shipments to the United States, the largest market, fell by 19.4%.

The eleven in wigs

In the final days of September, the English Premier League confirmed that the independent Commission had found Manchester City guilty of all the serious financial violations covering the 2009–2018 period—that is, 114 of the 115 charges. The league referred to “fictitious” sponsorship contracts that inflated revenues and suppressed costs by more than £900 million. City denies everything, which is why it hired a legal team capable of overturning the entire picture. The match was played with expensive transfers. For City, Lord David Pannick is being paid £5,000 PER HOUR, with former clients including Queen Elizabeth, Boris Johnson and Saudi Arabia. Alongside him is Paul Harris, who managed to overturn UEFA’s ban at the Court of Arbitration for Sport (CAS), Philip Marshall and Clifford Chance. On the other side, representing the league in the legal battle are Adam Lewis, Andrew Hunter—the lawyer involved in Formula 1’s “Spygate” case and the $100 million fine imposed on McLaren—and Jason Pobjoy, from the case that cost Everton points. Top footballer Haaland earns £500,000 a week. Pannick makes that much in 100 billable hours. At London law firms, legal figures estimate that the combined bill exceeds £100 million. The league’s costs are estimated at more than £70 million. If it wins the case, it can typically recover around 70%. City therefore risks paying up to £50 million in legal costs alone. If it overturns the ruling, the cost could ultimately fall on the other clubs, the Telegraph writes. The appeal was filed late on Thursday afternoon, October 1. The regulations provide for a hearing within 12 weeks and a decision 30 days later. The teams’ lawyers are calculating three to four months. The penalties will be decided separately, ranging from a reprimand to expulsion from the league. The only league without financial fair play is the one for British lawyers.