A new CNN poll in four key US states paints a different picture from the one prevailing in early 2026, just days before the midterm elections on Tuesday, 3 November. Democrats are leading in Michigan and Texas, while Senate races in Maine and Kansas remain wide open, with neither candidate holding a clear advantage.

The findings reflect a shift in the political climate in states that, until a few months ago, were considered particularly difficult territory for Democrats. They have fuelled expectations that the party could challenge for control of the Senate. However, the electoral arithmetic remains particularly complex, as Democrats need a net gain of four seats to secure a majority.

Of the four Senate seats examined in the poll, three are currently held by Republicans.

Dissatisfaction with Donald Trump appears to be playing a decisive role in the emerging picture, even in states he won comfortably in the 2024 presidential election. The personal appeal of individual candidates is also proving significant.

The figures in the four states

According to the CNN poll of likely voters, the figures are as follows:

• Michigan: Abdul El-Sayed (Democrat) 49% – Mike Rogers (Republican) 42%.
• Texas: James Talarico (Democrat) 49% – Ken Paxton (Republican) 43%.
• Maine: Troy Jackson (Democrat) 49% – Susan Collins (Republican) 45%.
• Kansas: Adam Hamilton (Democrat) 49% – Roger Marshall (Republican) 45%.

Despite the numerical differences, CNN notes that neither candidate has a statistically clear lead in Maine or Kansas. Even in states where Democrats are ahead, there remains room for voters to change their minds.

Michigan: El-Sayed leads by seven points

In Michigan, one of the most competitive states in the United States, Democratic candidate Abdul El-Sayed has the support of 49% of likely voters, compared with 42% for Republican Mike Rogers. The seven-point margin marks a significant shift from CNN’s poll in early September, when the race showed no clear leader.

El-Sayed’s improved position is linked to the consolidation of the Democratic electoral base following fierce internal party disputes during the August primaries.

Today, 95% of likely voters who identify as Democrats say they support El-Sayed, up from 90% in the previous poll.

At the same time, Rogers’s standing has deteriorated significantly. Half of likely voters now view the former congressman unfavourably, up from 42% in early September.

Another notable finding concerns voters’ motivations. About three-quarters of El-Sayed’s supporters say they are voting for him because they personally back him, while 57% of Rogers’s supporters say their choice is driven primarily by opposition to the Democratic candidate.

Texas: Democrat Talarico leads in a traditionally Republican state

The picture in Texas is particularly striking. The state has not elected a Democrat to statewide office since 1994.

James Talarico leads Ken Paxton, the Republican candidate, by 49% to 43%, despite Donald Trump having won Texas in 2024 by the largest margin of his three presidential campaigns.

The poll suggests that Talarico is attracting greater support than Democrats typically receive in Texas, particularly among non-white voters. Specifically, the Democratic candidate is backed by 63% of likely Latino voters and 64% of non-white voters overall.

Even more notably, he has the support of 22% of non-white likely voters who voted for Trump in the 2024 presidential election.

Talarico’s appeal is partly attributed to the particularly unfavourable ratings of Paxton. Some 24% of likely Republican voters have a negative opinion of their party’s candidate, while only 2% of Democrats express a similarly unfavourable view of Talarico.

Furthermore, most of the Democratic candidate’s supporters say their vote is a positive endorsement of him, rather than simply a vote against his opponent.

Nevertheless, Texas retains strong Republican leanings. Despite Trump’s now-negative ratings, the Republican Party remains more popular than the Democratic Party, and there is also no clear polling frontrunner in the race for governor.

Kansas: Marshall faces voter dissatisfaction

The findings in Kansas are even more surprising, given that it is the most consistently Republican of the four states examined by CNN. Democrat Adam Hamilton has the support of 49% of likely voters, compared with 45% for incumbent Republican Senator Roger Marshall. The difference, however, does not amount to a clear statistical lead.

The poll suggests that the race is being shaped more by Marshall’s unfavourable image than by the popularity of his Democratic opponent. Although only about a third of likely voters in Kansas have a favourable opinion of the Democratic Party, Hamilton is attracting support well beyond his party’s usual base.

Specifically, 12% of Republicans and independent voters who lean towards the Republican Party say they support the Democratic candidate. This is a higher proportion than that recorded for any other Democratic candidate in the four states.

Meanwhile, 59% of Hamilton’s supporters say their main motivation for voting is opposition to Marshall.

Another notable finding is that around one in five likely voters has yet to form a definite opinion of Hamilton. Even among this group, however, the Democrat appears to attract more support than his Republican opponent.

Maine: A close contest for Susan Collins

In Maine, where Democrats identified an early opportunity to win a Republican-held seat, the race remains highly competitive.

Democrat Troy Jackson has the support of 49% of likely voters, compared with 45% for incumbent Republican Senator Susan Collins. The gap is not sufficient to establish a clear lead, while the overall picture has remained almost unchanged since CNN’s poll in early September.

Collins is the only Republican senator seeking re-election in a state that voted Democratic in the 2024 presidential election. Her political position differs from that of other Republican candidates, as Maine voters are less inclined to view her as someone who would put Trump’s and her party’s interests ahead of those of the state.

Indeed, 21% of voters who disapprove of Trump continue to support Collins. The corresponding figures are 16% for Rogers in Michigan, 12% for Marshall in Kansas and 10% for Paxton in Texas.

Nevertheless, the Republican senator is facing a significant decline in her personal standing. Some 54% of likely voters have an unfavourable opinion of Collins. Jackson also has a negative net favourability rating, with 46% viewing him unfavourably and 39% favourably.

The race is focused largely on Collins herself, with about three-quarters of the supporters of both candidates saying their voting intentions are influenced more by their opinion of her than by their view of Jackson.

Which voters appear most determined?

The poll also reveals differences in the level of motivation among the two candidates’ supporters in Maine. Some 79% of Jackson’s supporters say they are extremely motivated to vote, compared with 62% of Collins’s supporters.

However, the proportion of highly motivated voters backing the Republican senator has risen by nine percentage points since early September, while the figure for Jackson’s supporters has remained stable.

Meanwhile, 42% of likely voters say they have seen advertisements supporting Collins, compared with 27% who report seeing advertisements backing her Democratic opponent.

Undecided voters and the possibility of a late shift

Despite the encouraging findings for Democrats, CNN’s poll indicates that there is still room for the picture to change before election day.

In Michigan, Texas and Kansas, at least one in eight likely voters says they could still change their choice.

In Texas and Kansas, at least 60% of these voters who have not firmly made up their minds are Republicans or independents who lean towards the Republican Party. This suggests that the final consolidation of party support could remain a significant factor in determining the outcome.

In Maine, by contrast, more than nine in ten likely voters say they have already made their choice.

Nevertheless, in all four states, the number of voters who could change their preference is large enough to affect the margins recorded in the poll.

The battle for the four seats Democrats need

The significance of the four races extends beyond the states themselves, as they form part of the Democrats’ broader effort to regain control of the Senate.

To do so, the party must achieve a net gain of four seats in the 3 November elections.

Voters appear to recognise the national implications of their choices, although their motivations vary from state to state.

In Maine, 55% of supporters of Democratic candidate Troy Jackson say control of the Senate by their party is the most important consideration informing their vote.

In Texas and Kansas, by contrast, maintaining the party majority is a more important factor for Republican voters.

In Kansas, half of Roger Marshall’s supporters say their main consideration is which party will control the Senate.

Overall, however, in all four states, the majority of voters attach greater importance to other factors, including the candidates’ personal standing and issues affecting their local communities.