Hello, everyone’s eyes are still on Spain, which continues to count the victims of the latest railway tragedy. This dramatic development will, of course, not go unnoticed politically either, as it comes almost at the same time as the November 29 elections, in which, theoretically, Socialist Prime Minister Sánchez will wave goodbye to power. I wonder how, after two deadly tragedies of an almost identical nature in nine months, he has still not resigned. Meanwhile, the international community is preparing for the big Tuesday of the midterm elections in America, which will have major consequences. Above all, for the war situation in Iran, but also for that in Ukraine. According to analyses, assessments and opinion polls, the Republicans are certain to lose the House of Representatives and possibly the Senate as well. From that point onward, if the scenario of a double defeat materializes, we will be looking at a completely different picture and situation, as Trump will face considerable difficulties. Now, turning to matters closer to home, as you can read, Mitsotakis is in America. Yesterday, he was particularly sharp in his speech at the UN regarding the Turkish-Libyan memorandum. This is only to be expected, both because he was given the opportunity to do so on an international platform and because we have elections coming up, meaning that the rhetoric will be ramped up on all fronts.

The meeting and negotiations concerning Pizza Fan

Back to the tax evasion scandals, and I am hearing various things about the fate of Pizza Fan. It has a good market share, and the government is also under pressure because 2,500 people are employed there. Next Tuesday, a meeting will take place at the Ministry of Labour, attended by representatives of the state, employee representatives and a representative of the company’s management, amid speculation about the involvement of an investor who appears to be none other than Vlassis Georgatos of the Grigoris company. I am told that Antaras’s legal representative, lawyer Michalis Markoulakos, has obtained the necessary signatures and authorizations in order to establish a form of quasi-operational status for the business, so that employees’ accrued wages can be secured and a six-month plan drawn up for the transfer of the business to a new investor, given that Antaras is currently breaking rocks in prison. For her part, Labour Minister Kerameos is monitoring the matter and has tasked the Secretary General for Labour, Nikos Milapidis, with conducting all the necessary contacts and attending next Tuesday’s meeting as well, so that employees can finally see a light at the end of the tunnel.

The collateral damage suffered by Bread Factory

Separating the wheat from the chaff is not always an easy task, and in the case of the Choriatiko bakeries and everything that has come to light, it is clearly quite difficult. Nevertheless, it is something that must be done—as in the case of Pizza Fan—because not all cases are the same, and there are employees who bear no responsibility for the scandal. In the case of Choriatiko, all eight Bread Factory stores, as well as “Koulourades Geniki Promitheftiki Monada S.A.”, have also been caught up in the turmoil, as their bank accounts have been frozen. This has brought the business’s operations to a standstill: supplies have been cut off, suppliers cannot be paid, rents cannot be covered and, naturally, neither can the wages of approximately 1,000 employees. This is a case of collateral damage, since Bread Factory and Koulourades had been acquired, before the scandal came to light, by the Switz Group, which has been active in the food sector in Greece since 2017 and belongs to Indian businessman Taizoon Fakhruddin Khorakiwala. The group has a turnover of $700 million, operates in 11 countries and employs a total of 5,000 people, while in Greece it has five other companies (Kriton Artos, Olympic Food, etc.). It is important to note that Switz did not acquire A. Giannakopoulos’s companies themselves, but only their trademarks and fixed assets, while taking on their personnel. The Bread Factory network was built during 2026 by new companies, with new management and new capital. In other words, it was created from scratch, and the only thing connecting it to Choriatiko is the Bread Factory brand, which was purchased definitively and irrevocably. Furthermore, the eight Bread Factory stores and the Koulourades company have generated €12 million in turnover over seven months. They have already paid €650,000 to the state in taxes and contributions; every month, the state and e-EFKA collect €200,000, and the businesses have paid a total of €1.3 million in gross wages. Switz is paying the price because of the confusion created by the shared commercial name, even though neither its owners nor its management are individuals under investigation, nor do they possess any assets derived from the alleged offences. Let us hope, therefore, that common sense prevails and the freezing of the accounts is lifted, allowing the business to operate without disruption.

Dora’s book to be published in December

In political circles, aside from discussions about the elections, people are wondering when Dora’s book will be released. It will take the form of an autobiography and may well also answer the question of whether she will run again as a candidate in the constituency of Chania, where candidates are elected by preference vote (as things stand, she will not). I can tell you that the book, which will be published by Patakis Publishers, has not yet been finalized, but it will be completed and published in early December. The presentation will also take place around that time. The panel of speakers is still being discussed, although Dora has already made proposals to certain individuals. There is no doubt that the book will be extremely interesting in many respects.

Why Lagarde is leaving early

I have read quite a few articles in the foreign press about why Christine Lagarde is leaving her position at the ECB prematurely, as many are understandably thinking that she could run for the French presidency. Lagarde herself, however, has firmly ruled out this scenario and intends to stick to what she has said. As a source of mine, who is rarely wrong about these things, explained to me, the European central banker wants to do Macron a favour by allowing him to nominate a new central bank governor before the spring presidential elections, so that he does not leave that choice to Le Pen. Generally speaking, the French are in a state of considerable urgency ahead of the elections, seeing the political extremes sweeping ahead while the Centre is struggling. This is why they want to settle as many outstanding matters as possible. One major outstanding issue is also the European budget, which is why two EU summits will be held before the end of the year: one at the end of November and the regular one after mid-December, in the hope that the Europeans might find some common ground (although I find that rather unlikely).

The Bridge of Arta saga at Chios Airport

Chios Airport is turning into a veritable Bridge of Arta—a reference to a legendary bridge that, according to folklore, could never be completed. The airport recently became known throughout Greece after water poured into it on a day of heavy rain. Following an investigation, the cause was identified: a drainage pipe had not been properly cleaned. But now the problem is even bigger, as the airport will close from mid-November until mid-March for runway replacement works. As a result, the island will be left hanging by a thread, with only its ferry connections available throughout the winter. Against this backdrop, the island’s MP, Notis Mitarakis, sent a letter to Vice-President Hatzidakis requesting immediate intervention and coordination among all the relevant ministries—Infrastructure, Shipping and Health—so that timely planning can be put in place, alternative ferry connections strengthened and meaningful provisions made for the island’s residents. What Mitarakis says in his letter is that the government cannot allow a project that was unfrozen and moved forward under the New Democracy government to turn into a political boomerang for the party, especially with elections approaching.

Pollsters, Kasidiaris and Doudonis

On October 28, PASOK MP Panagiotis Doudonis opened a debate about whether pollsters should include a “Kasidiaris party” in their surveys and reflect it in their polling results. He argued that Kasidiaris has effectively been banned from political activity for the duration of the sentence imposed on him by the court. Various pollsters are furious with the PASOK MP, mainly because he appears to be asking them to act as the Supreme Court and independently exclude a political formation from their surveys. My polling-industry source also drew my attention to the following point: surveys measure the “Alliance of Greeks”, a party founded by independent MPs. Regardless of whether these MPs are aligned with Kasidiaris, they have submitted the party’s statutes to the Supreme Court, and there are citizens who name this party when asked about their voting intentions. There are also citizens who answer “Kasidiaris”. However, researchers have decided not to add those responses to the Alliance of Greeks’ percentage, instead classifying them under “Other Party”. All of that is well and good, but since we have eyes and can see for ourselves, the venue where Kasidiaris spoke in Thessaloniki was packed with men in their thirties. Precisely the kind of support that all pollsters are finding in their voting-intention surveys.

The Three Women and Alexis’s Basketball Player

The two women had already begun positioning themselves for the tough battle in the Western Suburbs, and when a third woman entered the picture, the contest began to get increasingly fierce and demanding—at least in their own plans. We are talking about Tsipras’s ELAS electoral ticket in Western Athens, which initially began filling up with two energetic women from the new generation of regional policy coordinators, both outspoken regulars on television panels and elsewhere: Marizeta Antonopoulou and Anna Papadopoulou. But now Effie Achtsioglou is also once again setting her sights on Western Athens, following her recent joining of Tsipras’s party. The arrival of Tsipras’s former ministers is not particularly welcome among the new, untainted party figures, who understand that they are inevitably moving up a level in the competition. And there is something else raising the bar for competition in Western Athens: the very real possibility that the popular figure from the world of basketball, Angelos Koronios, may also stand as a candidate. He has left his mark on the area, in particular. An ELAS party official is rushing to head off a war among candidates, arguing that “the electoral lists have not yet been finalized, and therefore no one, male or female, should consider their candidacy in one constituency or another a certainty.” As is well known, however, securing seats is not simply a matter of following the doctrine that the best candidates win. It also depends on the percentages the party manages to achieve nationwide and in each individual constituency. And lately, ELAS appears to be losing momentum…

70 Greek Companies Have Signed 120 Contracts with France’s Naval Group

The French city of Lorient has a distinctly Greek flavour today, Friday, as the ceremony marking the handover and raising of the Greek flag on the second Greek Belharra-class frigate, the Nearchos, is taking place. And while the spotlight is on the Navy’s latest acquisition, behind the impressive images lies another story of considerable business interest: that of the Greek companies that have entered the supply chain of France’s Naval Group, securing contracts and access to the international shipbuilding market. To put some figures on it, according to Naval Group data, more than 120 contracts have been signed with approximately 70 Greek companies. Among the names standing out on the French company’s books are Salamis Shipyards, which manufactures pre-outfitted hull sections; METLEN, which supplies torpedo tubes; Akmon, which supplies consoles; Mevaco, which provides systems equipment; Kafkas, which supplies electrical panels; and Viking Norsafe Hellas, which supplies high-speed RHIB boats. Mallionda and Marita Hellas are also involved, while Mevaco and Akmon have secured new orders. And this is where the real substance lies. Greek participation in the first three frigates is estimated at between 8% and 12%, but the major challenge concerns the fourth Belharra, the Themistocles, which is already under construction at the same shipyards in Lorient. Expectations are higher for this vessel, with the target for domestic participation set at 25%.

New Business from Sweden and Denmark

What is interesting, however, is that the business is not limited to the Greek frigates. Naval Group has secured a new order from Sweden for four FDI frigates, worth €4.3 billion, with work on the first vessel already underway. At the same time, it is in discussions with Denmark over a new frigate programme and has also signed industrial cooperation agreements with Danish companies. With 13 FDI frigates in its order book, Naval Group is creating new opportunities for its Greek suppliers as well. Of course, every country seeks to secure its own share of industrial participation, but Greek companies have already acquired the technical expertise and established a position in the production chain. The major challenge now is for Greek companies’ signatures to appear on frigates destined for third countries as well.

What Will Determine the Sale of DELTA – Management Changes at Vivartia

Moving from politics to market news, let’s start with developments at the Vivartia Group. At present, CVC’s main priority is to formally complete the sale of its foodservice division, specifically Evergood, to the Canadian company Recipe Unlimited Corporation, which belongs to the Fairfax Group. The transfer of Evergood, which controls the Goody’s Burger House, Everest, Flocafé, La Pasteria and Jackaroo chains, is expected to take place in the coming period. According to information available, it will also bring management changes at Vivartia, as the current CEO of Vivartia, Thanasis Papanikolaou, will follow the foodservice business. He has relevant experience, having previously come from the restaurant sector, for which he was responsible. Once CVC has wrapped up the Evergood transaction, it will turn its attention to the sale of DELTA, which is estimated to take place in 2027. The crucial factor determining the sale will be DELTA’s financial performance this year, since in 2025 the company returned to after-tax losses of €2.6 million, compared with profits of €700,000 in 2024. As is well known, MEVGAL and the Sarantis brothers of Olympus have expressed interest in acquiring DELTA.

The Stock Exchange’s Three Roadshows

Euronext Athens kicks things off next Monday at the Divani Caravel Hotel. November is the month of the major push towards greater international exposure, which will gradually move from small-cap companies towards the major players in London. Fourteen listed companies are participating in the Small Cap Conference 2026: Alpha Trust Andromeda, AS Company, Biokarpet, Daios Plastics, Elton, European Innovation Solutions, Lanacam, Quality & Reliability, Revoil, Softweb, Trek Development, Unibios, Verallis and Y/KNOT Invest. Only one-to-one meetings with analysts and institutional investors are planned, with no presentations or speeches. The mid-cap segment follows on November 10. Last year’s corresponding conference brought together 18 companies, 47 executives and 141 analysts across 547 meetings. The third act of this undertaking will take place in London on November 30–December 1, at the 5th Morgan Stanley & Euronext Athens Greek Investment Conference. In 2025, 42 large- and mid-cap listed companies were presented, alongside approximately 100 funds managing assets worth $30 trillion. The Prime Minister had an interesting discussion at the time with Morgan Stanley’s Claire Woodman. This year, the companies expected to participate include GEK TERNA, PPC, Athens International Airport, National Bank of Greece, Jumbo, Lamda Development, Metlen, Motor Oil, Sarantis, Theon, Viohalco and AKTOR, among others. Since September 21, our market has officially been classified as a “developed” market by FTSE Russell. Its market capitalization is rapidly approaching €200 billion (currently €193.5 billion), while public offerings in 2026 have raised €7.2 billion. However, this upward rally has not reached every corner of the market. The gains have not spread across the market as a whole. The upgrade brought passive investment funds into the 25 largest listed companies. The remaining 140 listed companies are still waiting. With market capitalization at €200 billion, small-cap companies are simply asking to be noticed. When foreign investors buy indices, they do not remember the names of the listed companies.

Waiting for OTE

The third-quarter results that OTE is announcing today are the first to be released under the Telekom brand. According to information available, they will show what the market is already pricing in: a strong group that is steadily gaining ground but is not impressing in terms of profitability. If these expectations are confirmed, adjusted EBITDA after leases will increase by approximately 3%, net profits by 2.7%, while revenue will edge up by just 1%. International wholesale services, which generate zero margins, are being deliberately scaled back and are weighing on the overall revenue figure. Pre-tax profits are estimated at €220 million, an increase of just 0.5%. Mobile services increased by 2.1% to €296 million, with growth slowing despite the seasonally strong roaming quarter. The margin is improving mainly because revenue that generated no profit has been eliminated. Retail fixed-line telephony appears stagnant at €230 million (-0.8%), despite 2.2 million available FTTH connections and penetration of 41.7% in the second quarter. The sector delivering impressive growth momentum is ICT, up 19.4% to €116 million. At the same time, investments are continuing, with the first target being to reach 2.4 million households connected to fibre-to-the-home (FTTH) by the end of the year. Deutsche Telekom, which holds 56.5% of OTE’s share capital, raised its group-wide AI-related cost-saving target in Bonn to €1.1 billion by 2027. Shareholders have little to complain about. Free cash flow is expected to reach €750 million in 2026, compared with €530 million last year; the dividend stands at €0.90 per share (+21.7%); share buybacks are continuing (434,271 shares worth €8.4 million purchased on October 19 alone); and S&P has upgraded the company’s rating to A-. The share is trading at €19, 14% cheaper than comparable European companies, with target prices ranging from €21.20 to €22.50.

Developments Intensify Regarding Betting Companies in Brazil

Luiz Fux, a justice of Brazil’s Supreme Federal Court, has scheduled a public hearing for November 3 at 10:00 a.m. local time to examine issues relating to the ban on betting activities. At the centre of the case is the provisional legislative measure issued by President Lula, which prohibits the operation, offering, intermediation and advertising of betting services in the country. The industry associations ANJL and IBJR are seeking its suspension, arguing that it is unconstitutional. The Union’s Office of the Attorney General, by contrast, is seeking to have the ban upheld in its entirety, invoking the federal government’s authority to determine which forms of gaming are permitted. Fux cited the need for urgent examination in view of the measure’s deadlines, its economic impact on Brazilian football and other sectors, and the need to ensure legal certainty. He had previously avoided intervening during the pre-election period so that his actions would not be perceived as interference in the political process. Twenty-six organizations have been invited to participate in the hearing, including government authorities, industry associations, representatives of industry and the media, the football federation, and major clubs such as Flamengo, Fluminense, Botafogo, São Paulo and Corinthians. The discussion will also feed into other pending cases concerning the regulation of the market. For Allwyn/Betano, this development establishes a specific milestone for monitoring regulatory risk. The hearing, however, does not constitute a decision to suspend the ban, nor does it imply that betting activities can resume. The crucial question will be whether a subsequent judicial intervention suspends or restricts the measure, potentially distinguishing the treatment of sports betting from that of online casinos.

Aldemar Resorts’ Financial Results

The Aldemar Resorts Group is anticipating stable financial results for 2026, having recorded a decline in turnover and losses last year following the sale of its hotels in Crete. The group’s 2025 results, covering its five-star hotel properties in Western Peloponnese—with a capacity of 682 rooms and 1,374 beds—namely Aldemar Olympian Village, Aldemar Royal Olympian, the Aldemar Olympian Village Conference Centre and the Royal Olympian Spa & Thalasso, point to a 38% decline in turnover to €19.83 million, compared with €31.96 million in the previous financial year. Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) fell to a profit of €3.07 million, compared with a profit of €35.4 million in the previous financial year, representing a decrease of 91.32%. “This difference is mainly attributable to the sale of the parent company’s hotel during the previous financial year,” according to the relevant report by the Angelopoulos management team. Pre-tax results amounted to losses of €2.95 million, compared with profits of €23.85 million, a development primarily attributable to the sale of the parent company’s hotel.

From the Sell-Off to the Counterattack

The Athens Stock Exchange is staging a strong rebound, with the General Index returning above the psychologically important 2,600-point threshold and recovering part of the substantial losses caused by October’s correction. Following three consecutive positive trading sessions and cumulative gains of 3.66%, the index closed Thursday at 2,623.03 points, confirming the effort to restore investor confidence. Despite the recovery, October remains a negative month, with the General Index down 4.21% on a monthly basis, while today’s trading session remains before the month comes to an end. Nevertheless, the return since the beginning of 2026 remains an impressive +23.69%, reflecting the momentum developed by the Greek stock market. This year began with strong upward momentum, continuing the excellent performance of 2025. Despite intermittent turbulence, the market continued to strengthen, supported by corporate earnings and positive expectations among foreign investors. From April through August, the General Index recorded five consecutive months of gains before reaching a 17-year high of 2,745.54 points on September 30. This was followed by October’s sharp correction, with the index falling as low as 2,513.95 points on October 23, while losses temporarily exceeded 7.5%. The three-day recovery, led by the banking sector, has brought the possibility of stabilization back into focus. The key challenge now is to hold above 2,600 points, so that the upward rebound can gain lasting momentum and create the conditions for further recovery of lost ground.

Bank Shares on a Roller Coaster

This October is proving to be one of the most volatile months of the past five years for banking stocks on the Athens Stock Exchange, with the sector moving from a wave of heavy sell-offs to an attempt to recover its losses. The banking index, which had closed September at 3,345.13 points, fell to 2,832.50 points on October 23, recording monthly losses of 15.32%. This decline was considerably steeper than that of the General Index, confirming that banks were at the centre of the selling pressure. The two-day period of October 22–23 was particularly damaging, as the sectoral index lost a cumulative 8.7%, with the four systemic banks facing heavy selling orders. The sell-offs were linked to profit-taking following the substantial gains of previous months, deterioration in international investor sentiment, concerns about the energy crisis and rising bond yields. However, the picture began to change during the current week. The banking index gained 3.19% on Monday, 1.99% on Tuesday and 3.04% on Thursday, recovering the 3,000-point level. As a result, monthly losses were reduced to approximately 8.2%. The next critical test concerns the banks’ nine-month results, which are expected to determine whether the recovery can gain lasting momentum.

How Koustas Combines High Dividends, Billions in Investments and Strong Liquidity

With a total distribution of $6 per share and Moody’s upgrading the outlook for Danaos Corporation, John Coustas has two significant reasons to be satisfied. The Board of Directors approved a regular quarterly dividend of $1 per share and a special extraordinary dividend of $5, with both distributions paid on October 22. At the same time, Moody’s revised Danaos’s outlook from stable to positive, maintaining its corporate credit rating at Ba1 and upgrading its unsecured notes from Ba2 to Ba1. The figures explain the rating agency’s decision. As of June 30, Danaos had $4.6 billion in contracted revenue from long-term charter agreements, with an average remaining duration of 4.7 years, and approximately $1 billion in cash reserves. Net profits for the first half of the year reached $292.2 million, up 18.7% compared with the corresponding period last year. What is particularly interesting is that the substantial returns of capital to shareholders are not slowing down the company’s investment activity. Since 2022, Danaos has undertaken a shipbuilding programme worth approximately $3.2 billion, which includes orders for 37 containerships and four Newcastlemax bulk carriers. Its operating fleet currently consists of 77 containerships and 11 bulk carriers.

Byron Vassiliadis: 35 Ships and the Challenge of What Comes Next

Thirty-five ships, both in the water and under construction, and investments exceeding $2 billion in just 16 months. That is the scale of Byron Vassiliadis’s entry into the ocean-going shipping industry, with Venergy Maritime and OceanV developing a fleet of tankers and containerships. The interest, however, goes beyond the number of vessels. It lies in the way the businessman is organizing the next stage of his operations. Entry into the VLCC market significantly increases the scale of investment and the demands of fleet management. At the same time, the collaboration with Greek company DeepSea Technologies to harness artificial intelligence demonstrates that Vassiliadis is also focusing on what happens after a vessel is delivered: fuel consumption, engine performance and the day-to-day monitoring of operating costs. It is significant that Vassiliadis did not inherit a shipping fleet, nor did he follow a decades-long path of gradual expansion. Coming from the environmental services sector, he chose to establish a substantial presence in ocean-going shipping within a relatively short period. For Byron Vassiliadis, who has managed to establish a strong footprint in the newbuild market in just 16 months, the greatest challenge is ensuring that operational organization keeps pace with the speed of investment.

The University of the Aegean, the Metropolitan Bishop of Chios and the “Hot Potato”

Three costed proposals, mobilization by the shipping community and intervention by the Metropolitan Bishop have come together to form a broad front of demands in Chios, prompted by the four-month closure of “Homer” Airport. While the island’s stakeholders are searching for solutions, the government is being called upon to make decisions on an issue that is proving far more complicated than simply adding more ferry services. At the forefront is the University of the Aegean, which has worked out three costed scenarios: a daily Piraeus–Chios connection, a high-speed ferry to Mesta, and combined travel via Mytilene. Among those involved in this mobilization, the intervention of Chios Metropolitan Bishop Markos also stood out. On October 28, in the presence of Emmanouil Koutoulakis, Secretary General for Shipping and Ports, he conveyed specific requests, also invoking his contacts with shipping industry executives. He described the issue as a matter of national importance. The problem, of course, is that the Ministry of Shipping has absolutely no involvement in the airport issue and… has simply been handed the hot potato. Indeed, the minister, quite rightly, expressed his concerns about the coordination of the competent authorities and the scheduling of the airport works, pointing out that the Ministry of Shipping is being called upon to deal with the consequences of a problem that does not fall directly within its remit. This is going to go well.

Hawks and Doves in the Race Before Lagarde Has Even Left

Christine Lagarde informed the ECB Governing Council and António Costa yesterday that she will step down on February 7, 2027, nine months before the end of her term (October 31, 2027). She also posted a video in which she spoke of “an ECB ready for the future.” Costa stated that the succession process would begin immediately. Everyone is in a hurry because the French presidential elections in April could very well bring Marine Le Pen to power. Macron and Merz want to lock in her successor before the occupant of the Élysée Palace changes. Two names dominate the race. The first is Dutchman Klaas Knot, central bank governor from 2011 to 2025 and former chair of the Financial Stability Board. He has the backing of Prime Minister Rob Jetten and is considered a “pragmatic hawk.” The second is Spaniard Pablo Hernández de Cos, who headed the Bank of Spain from 2018 to 2024 and is currently General Manager of the Bank for International Settlements (BIS). He has one rare advantage: he is supported not only by Prime Minister Sánchez but also by Alberto Núñez Feijóo, leader of the People’s Party and head of the opposition. In a Bloomberg poll of economists, Hernández de Cos was preferred by 12 respondents, compared with nine for Knot. Another argument in favour of de Cos is that Spain has never had an ECB president, while the vice-presidency has already gone to Croatian Boris Vujčić, who is also considered a “hawk.” The behind-the-scenes manoeuvring, however, conceals a third “secret” candidate: François Villeroy de Galhau. He left the position of Governor of the Bank of France in June, 16 months ahead of schedule. He has chaired the BIS Board of Directors since 2022 and is the only one among the recent members of the Board to have experienced the 1991 Maastricht negotiations from the inside. He also has strong German connections. The independent think tank OMFIF describes him as a “safe choice” in the event of a deadlock between Knot and de Cos. Villeroy de Galhau does, however, have one serious disadvantage: he is French. Following Jean-Claude Trichet and Lagarde, he would be the third French president of the ECB in the euro’s 28-year history, while most countries have never had a president of the institution. According to Reuters, Paris would prefer to support Dutchman Knot in exchange for the position of chief economist. Philip Lane is leaving in May, while Schnabel is heading to the IMF in January. In 2019, Lagarde was not on anyone’s shortlist. Deadlocked compromises usually have a French accent.

Kevin Warsh Is Changing the Rules

On Wednesday, the Fed kept interest rates unchanged at 3.75%–4.00%, with a 10–2 vote. The two dissenting members were Lisa Cook, whom the White House is fighting to remove, and Beth Hammack, who called for another increase in the cost of borrowing, one month after September’s rate hike and six days before the midterm elections. But the news was not about interest rates. Kevin Warsh announced that, starting in the autumn of 2027, one of the FOMC’s eight meetings will neither vote on interest rates nor issue a statement. Instead, it will be devoted to developing a “broad monetary policy strategy.” In 2028, the number of strategic meetings will increase to two, leaving six meetings for interest-rate decisions. The US central bank chief described this as “something more than an administrative detail.” The way the committee allocates its time affects the quality of its decisions. The move is consistent with his profile. He was confirmed on May 13 by a vote of 54–45, and from his very first meeting on June 17, he established five working groups covering the balance sheet, the inflation framework, communications, data and productivity. He has also shortened policy statements and press conferences, while systematically and stubbornly rejecting forward guidance. The recommendations of the working group on the Fed’s $6.8 trillion balance sheet are due to reach the FOMC in early 2027. This is an issue that requires thought and consultation, and therefore merits a meeting at which markets are not hanging on every word. Twenty years ago, in 2006, Ben Bernanke extended the October meeting to two days, exclusively to discuss communications issues. In 2007, he doubled the number of two-day meetings “for deeper discussion.” Since 2015, the ECB has separated its eight monetary policy meetings from the Governing Council’s “non-monetary” meetings. Warsh is simply making the distinction explicit and reducing the number of decisions. This approach naturally has consequences as well. Omer Sharif of Inflation Insights estimates that the first “silent” meeting will be held in October 2027, creating a 12-week gap without an interest-rate decision. The Fed can always act in an emergency, but every emergency move is interpreted as a sign of panic. Fewer decisions mean greater consequences attached to each one. The next meeting is scheduled for December 9, with markets pricing in a rate hike. The question is whether markets can withstand the silence.

The World’s Richest Company Is Borrowing for 40 Years

During Microsoft’s earnings conference call on Wednesday evening, CFO Amy Hood was asked by Bank of America how the company intended to finance its expansion. Hood replied that the company had “significant flexibility,” including access to debt markets, “which we have not yet tapped.” The word “yet” was the key, and this was confirmed just 12 hours later. Yesterday morning, Microsoft entered the market with an offering of at least $25 billion across as many as 10 tranches, with maturities ranging from two to 40 years, through Wells Fargo, JPMorgan and UBS. This was Microsoft’s first return to the US investment-grade bond market since 2017, when it raised $17 billion. For the 40-year bonds, initial indications pointed to a spread of 135 basis points above US Treasury yields. Microsoft is the last of the five hyperscalers to turn to the debt markets. Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft and Oracle had issued approximately $220 billion in bonds by August, compared with $121 billion for all of 2025 and $40 billion in 2020. Meta holds the record for the largest single issuance ($30 billion, October 2025). Alphabet issued a 100-year bond in February, while Nvidia and Amazon each issued $25 billion in bonds over the summer. S&P estimates that the combined capital expenditure of these five companies will reach $750 billion in 2026, equivalent to 38% of their revenue. Financing costs are rising, with spreads on two-year and four-year bonds increasing from 30 to 40 basis points. Microsoft, however, is the only one among them with an AAA rating. When even the world’s richest company is borrowing money for 40 years, it becomes clear that artificial intelligence is no longer being regarded simply as an investment. It has become an obligation.