The news coming from this giant volcano is even gloomier than the new forecasts from the IMF & World Bank

“In just a month, the global economy has gone from showing signs of stalling growth to providing strong evidence the Earth’s economy has resumed shrinking”

Investors love looking at esoteric indicators for clues on how the economy is performing, and therefore how stocks, bonds and other assets will trade.

How about looking at carbon dioxide emissions? There may be a political agreement to reduce emissions but that’s an effort phased in over many years. Any sudden changes are more likely to be the impact of changing patterns of economic activity rather than cleaner output.

So we take you to Mauna Loa, home to the world’s second largest volcano and also the site of a remote observatory from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, set up in 1957.

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Over to the blog Political Calculations, which tracks the 12-month average of the year-over-year change in parts per million of atmospheric carbon dioxide.

“In just a month, the global economy has gone from showing signs of stalling growth to providing strong evidence the Earth’s economy has resumed shrinking,” says the blog.

Read more: Market Watch