Russia’s pipeline gas exports to Europe showed a year-on-year increase in September, for the first time in 2023, as Turk Stream pipeline flows to central and eastern Europe remained strong.

The sole pipeline gas exporter, state-run Gazprom, supplied some 2.7 billion cubic meters to Europe in September, down 4.5% from August levels but up 7.2% from September 2022, according to Energy Intelligence estimates based on gas transmission data.

Exports turned to year-on-year growth after months of decline mainly because September 2022 levels had already been very low, following a halt in gas flows via the Nord Stream gas pipeline in late August 2022 in what many observers saw as part of the hybrid war between Moscow and the West over the real war in Ukraine that Russia started in February 2022.

Since then, Gazprom’s monthly exports to Europe had been mainly hovering around 2 Bcm per month, but in July-September this year they rose to some 2.7 Bcm-2.8 Bcm/month, as Gazprom’s decreased hub-linked prices helped it compete with other supply sources, including LNG, in central and eastern Europe.

Gazprom supplies the region via the onshore continuation of the Turk Stream offshore pipeline landing in Turkey, which increased average daily flows by 24% on the year to 48.4 million cubic meters per day in September.

That however represents a 2.2% decrease from the record levels of August 2022, which might reflect an increase in Gazprom’s average prices in September by 12.6% from the August levels, the lowest since July 2021, to $10.75 per million Btu, which is still lower than January-May levels, according to Energy Intelligence border price estimates.

Turk Stream now supplies Greece, Croatia and Hungary, plus non-EU North Macedonia, Serbia and Bosnia and Herzegovina.

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