As we enter the final stretch for the US presidential election, one of the main topics of discussion has been: whether pollsters are overestimating Donald Trump and underestimating that of Harris. The answer was given again a few hours ago: the Trump figure was underestimated again, as it was in 2016 and to some extent in 2020, and now Mr. Trump has accomplished something no Republican has done in 20 years: he also won the popular vote as this was being written by over 5 million votes compared to K. Harris. The last Republican to do so was George W. Bush in 2004, against John Kerry. At the same time, Trump has managed to return the Senate to Republican control and looks set to win in all the so-called swing states.

Republican Bernie Moreno flipped an Ohio US Senate seat, beating Democratic incumbent Sherrod Brown. Republicans have gained two Senate seats, after flipping another in West Virginia https://t.co/5vQTrKpeiY pic.twitter.com/vHFxsPRU4p

— Reuters (@Reuters) November 6, 2024

The horizontal victory

Trump’s strategy has worked, because he targeted issues that mattered to the average American citizen. Exit polls showed that Americans were mostly frustrated or even angry with the country’s state since Biden’s presidency, with the cost of living having risen to unimaginable heights. Mr. Trump brought up the economy, but also the issue of immigration, which seems to have hit home, not only in several areas but also among social groups such as Hispanic voters.

The FOX News Decision Desk projects former President Donald Trump will be the 47th president, defeating Vice President Kamala Harris. Trump makes history with a political comeback, becoming the first president since Grover Cleveland in the 1800s to return to office after a defeat… pic.twitter.com/MP92WrkqgC

— Fox News (@FoxNews) November 6, 2024

The qualitative difference in Trump’s result compared to that of Harris’ was this: he held Republican strongholds with comfortable majorities and then formed a horizontal majority, even boosting Republican turnout in areas that were Democratic strongholds. In another light, this could also be recognized as an underperformance by Vice President Harris, who appears to have failed to achieve serious penetration of the Democratic constituency and even in many cases fell short of the result achieved by Joe Biden in 2020. This may explain the incumbent president’s reluctance to support her more actively and stand by her side at campaign events. Mr Biden may not have been the right candidate for the Democrats anymore, but he is politically experienced.

Where Trump won

Some individual figures from the Edison exit poll are revealing of Mr Trump’s victory. Kamala Harris did indeed win among women with 54% to Mr. Trump’s 44%, but Mr. Trump increased his share by two points. Mr. Trump won with 55% to 43% among white voters, though down 3 points from 2020. Trump’s “boom” in the polls primarily tied to immigration comes among Hispanic voters, despite what was said about Puerto Rico and so on. Mr. Trump got 45% of the Hispanic vote and Ms. Harris got 53%, but Mr. Trump’s rise is 13 points over 2020. In fact, among Hispanic men, Mr. Trump overwhelmingly beats Ms. Harris 54% to 44%, up 18 points from 2020.

BREAKING NEWS: The Fox News Decision Desk projects that Donald Trump will become the 47th President of the United States. pic.twitter.com/jQBA6Dlx1n

— Fox News (@FoxNews) November 6, 2024

The breakdown by age group, based on the exit poll data, is particularly interesting. Harris’s campaign particularly targeted younger voters, investing in mass mobilization. Indeed, in the 18-29 age group, Ms. Harris won with 55% to Mr. Trump’s 42%, but he was up 6 points from 2020. Among 30-44-year-old voters, the productive age group, the gap closes even further with Ms. Harris prevailing with 51% to 46%. The reversal occurs in the 45-64 age group, as Trump prevails with 53% to 45%, and among voters over 65, we have a virtual tie, with 50% for Harris and 49% for Trump.

Harris’ tepid performance

In the Democratic camp, the freeze was evident on the campus of Howard University, where Ms. Harris was expected but did not show up. It’s not just that she lost in the states that make up the “blue wall”, namely Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, where Biden had managed to prevail in 2020. Nor did he “hold” the Republican stronghold of Georgia, in which Mr. Biden recorded a narrow victory. Ms. Harris’s main problem is that, even in traditional
Democratic strongholds that she won, she did worse than Mr. Biden.

In New York, for example, Ms. Harris won by 12 points to 23 in 2020. In New Jersey by just over 4 points, compared to 16 in 2020. In Massachusetts, she lost 7 points compared to her 2020 win (26 to 33), in Rhode Island 10 (13 to 23), in Connecticut 12 (8 to 20), in Maryland 10 (22 to 33), and in Delaware (Mr. Biden) by 5 points (14 out of 19). With these numbers, it’s clear that Ms. Harris ultimately had no serious chance of winning in the swing states. And she failed to win a single one of the seven states!