Greek-Turkish Relations in Flux

Amid political turmoil and unresolved issues, Athens and Ankara had been working toward scheduling the Supreme Cooperation Council (SCC) meeting and a Mitsotakis-Erdoğan summit for late April. However, recent developments in Turkey, including the arrest of Imamoglu and rule-of-law violations, have created a new reality, making the outcome uncertain.

Greek government spokesperson Pavlos Marinakis stated that Athens is closely monitoring the evolving situation in Turkey, emphasizing that violations of the rule of law are unacceptable. Given these circumstances, organizing the SCC meeting has become increasingly difficult.

Greece is wary of any misinterpretation of a prime ministerial visit as interference in Turkey’s internal political disputes or as a sign of leniency toward Ankara regarding its European defense ambitions. The tense political landscape further complicates efforts to find common ground on Greek-Turkish matters, making another postponement of the SCC meeting likely.

Greek and Turkish foreign ministers, Gerapetritis and Fidan, will discuss the issue on April 3-4 in Brussels during the NATO Foreign Ministers’ Summit.

The Libya Factor – No Moves to Enforce the Turkey-Libya Pact

Athens views positively the fact that Tripoli has not invoked the illegal Turkey-Libya maritime agreement in its recent offshore exploration tenders. The bidding areas remain south of the median line, as established by Greek legislation (Maniatis Law). This suggests that, for now, Libya does not intend to provoke Greece by enforcing the disputed maritime pact.

Despite this, Libya has not officially distanced itself from the Turkey-Libya Memorandum, which remains a source of concern for Greece, particularly regarding:

• Potential expansion of the pact westward
• Libya’s stance on maritime zones near Crete and Gavdos

Athens sees this as an opportunity to engage with Tripoli and initiate talks on Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) delimitation, leveraging Libya’s current economic and political reliance on EU support.

Greek Energy Strategy – Moving Forward Despite Turkish Objections

Greece remains committed to continuing research for the Greece-Cyprus power interconnection, regardless of Turkey’s stance. The Foreign Ministry insists that exploration will proceed, either through diplomatic negotiations to avoid Turkish intervention or, if necessary, without prior agreement, forcing Turkey to assume responsibility for any escalation.

However, unilateral action could lead to a serious crisis with Ankara, potentially derailing efforts to organize the Mitsotakis-Erdoğan summit. Conversely, delaying energy projects to accommodate Turkish sensitivities would undermine Greece’s sovereign rights and send the wrong message about its strategic autonomy.

EU Defense & Turkey’s Role – A Sticking Point

Another major challenge ahead of the Ankara summit is the EU’s defense policy. Some European partners push for Turkey’s inclusion, particularly in the €150 billion ReArm Europe initiative, despite Greek and Cypriot objections.

Athens and Nicosia demand strict conditions for Turkey’s participation, based on previous EU Summit Conclusions. However, parts of the ReArm Europe plan require only a qualified majority vote, not unanimous approval, making it difficult for Greece and Cyprus to block Turkey’s involvement outright.

Conclusion

Greece faces a delicate balancing act in its relations with Turkey and Libya, striving to:

• Maintain diplomatic momentum with Ankara without appearing weak on sovereignty issues
• Capitalize on Libya’s shift away from the Turkey-Libya pact while pushing for EEZ negotiations
• Advance energy projects without provoking an escalation with Turkey
• Safeguard EU defense policy from Turkish influence

The coming weeks will be pivotal, with developments in Brussels, Tripoli, and Ankara shaping the next phase of Greek foreign policy.