Gold has resumed its upward trajectory and is up 38% since the start of the year, narrowly missing the all-time high of $3,674 per ounce set earlier in September.

The UBS attributes the rally to the shift in market expectations towards a resumption of the Fed’s tapering cycle, the expected weakening of the dollar, and persistent geopolitical uncertainties. Against this backdrop, it upgrades its target price for late 2025 to $3,800 per ounce (from $3,500 per ounce) and for mid-2026 to $3,900 per ounce (from $3,700). On September 11, the spot price was at $3,637 per ounce.

The key driver is the fall in real interest rates.