Marc estimates ND’s immediate gain from Kyriakos Mitsotakis’ presence at TIF at 1.7 points, linked to the announcement of significant tax measures affecting around 4 million citizens.

In a survey by the same company on September 2, ND’s voting intention stood at 25.3%, while in the poll completed on September 11, five days after the Prime Minister’s announcements at Vellidio, it rose to 27%. Thus, New Democracy breaks the 30% barrier in vote estimation: at 31%, it secures a 17.5-point lead over PASOK, which remains at 13.5%, in a seven-party parliament that could, however, become nine-party, since MeRA25 and Stefanos Kasselakis’ Democracy Movement narrowly miss entering parliament.

Despite the fact that the poll responses reveal a large information gap regarding the TIF measures—for example, one in three parents of large families say that the reduction of tax rates depending on the number of children in a family affects them little or not at all—those who recognize they benefit from them, even a little, exceed ND’s own percentages by up to 30 points. For example, 61.2% of public sector employees and 48.9% of private sector employees state they are favored.

Interestingly, young people also seem responsive to the tax measures: 34.2% of the 17–30 age group evaluate Mitsotakis’ presence at TIF positively, with ND once again being the top party among younger voters. The problem for the governing party seems to shift to slightly older ages: in the 31–44 group, only 25.5% express satisfaction with the Prime Minister’s appearance in Thessaloniki.

By contrast, the figure for those over 65 reaches 53.3%! Notably, a majority—54.5% of respondents—say that the TIF measures will help “a little,” “to some extent,” or “significantly” in dealing with inflation, which remains by far the biggest problem households face.

All of this shows that ND’s “perimeter” is widening—even in a period when no election mood is recorded in society, only general concern about international developments, from the Middle East and Ukraine to the crisis in France.

It is telling that Marc’s two polling waves recorded a significant increase in undecideds within a week, from 13% to 15%, suggesting that citizens do not feel faced with pressing dilemmas at this time.

ND raises cohesion

Based on voting intention responses, ND increased its cohesion by three points after TIF, from 60% to 63%. At the same time, it regains first place among those identifying as centrists, with 22.4% compared to PASOK’s 17.9%.

Waiting for Tsipras

However, the leading force in this space is now the undecided: one in four centrists and one in five center-left voters fall into the “gray zone,” indicating deadlock and perhaps waiting for Tsipras’ moves. His evaluation on the sidelines of TIF scored 30.5% positive among the center-left, 33% among the left, but only 21.2% in the center.

Interestingly, Alexis Tsipras divides SYRIZA: 45.1% of its voters saw his presence in Thessaloniki positively, but 24.7% expressed a negative view, while 30.3% refused to comment—showing the unease prevailing in that space.

It’s worth noting that Tsipras’ presence was positively rated by 34.5% of 17–30-year-olds. At the same time, 34.2% of the same age group viewed Mitsotakis’ appearance positively, while 56.6% considered the zero-tax policy for those under 25 as very or fairly significant.

SYRIZA’s fragmentation has brought PASOK to first place among center-left voters with 24.4%, while SYRIZA itself is reduced to a meager 7.1%, only marginally above ND’s penetration into that space, now at 6.9%.

By contrast, ND maintains hegemonic status on the right with 54.4% and in the center-right with 59.6%.

Second in both groups is Kyriakos Velopoulos’ Hellenic Solution, with 10.5% and 7.7%, while undecideds account for just 3% of right-wingers and 7% of center-right voters—objectively limiting the chances of a new party emerging under Antonis Samaras.

Mitsotakis without rival

Mr. Mitsotakis gained one point in suitability for Prime Minister after his TIF appearance, reaching 30.7%, close to ND’s percentage, while opposition leader Nikos Androulakis continues at low levels, ranking fourth, behind Zoe Konstantopoulou and Kyriakos Velopoulos. In fact, all three lost points after Mitsotakis’ presence at TIF.

The Prime Minister’s appearance at TIF is positively rated by 36.9% of respondents, with 36.2% of centrists and 18.3% of center-left voters expressing approval. Strikingly, over one in five PASOK voters rated the Prime Minister’s performance as good or rather good. Interestingly, in political assessment questions, 39.3% said Mitsotakis announced what the economy can handle—or even more—while 53.7% insisted he could have announced much more without causing economic problems.

The most popular measure

The reduction of tax rates for all, and an even greater reduction depending on the number of children in each family, emerges as the most popular measure announced at TIF: 61.1% of women and 57.4% of men support it, with positive response among young people reaching 64%, slightly below those over 65. The measure is approved by 78.3% of ND voters, 50.1% of PASOK voters, 45.3% of SYRIZA voters, and even 43.1% of KKE voters.

 Following is the 30% reduction of VAT on Aegean islands, which has approval from 61% of women and 56.6% of men, and support above 50% across all age categories. After ND voters—three out of four of whom consider it very or fairly important—come the voters of the KKE with 56.1%, SYRIZA with 51.3%, and PASOK with 47.9%. It is noteworthy that in the Aegean islands the measure’s approval reaches 88.4%, even though it does not apply to the entire region.

The reduction and subsequent elimination of ENFIA (property tax) for main residences in villages and settlements with fewer than 1,500 inhabitants is recognized as a positive measure by 52% of women and 46.8% of men. The elderly (61.6%) are especially supportive, as are young people (52.2%). In other age groups, however, the majority considers the measure of little or no importance, as do voters of parties other than ND.

The most emblematic measure of TIF, the elimination of taxation for young people up to 25 years old and its significant reduction up to the age of 30, is supported by a majority only among those directly concerned—that is, young people under 30—as well as those over 65. By contrast, Center-Left and Left voters largely reject the measure.

The survey was conducted by MARC S.A.
– ESR Registry Number: 1 (ENA).
– Client: Proto Thema.
– Survey population: Men and women eligible to vote.
– Sample size: 2,401 individuals (1st wave: 1,193 – 2nd wave: 1,208).
– Period: August 27 to September 2 & September 8 to 11, 2025.
– Area: Nationwide coverage.
– Sampling method: Multistage random sampling with quotas based on gender, age, and geographic distribution.
– Data collection method: Telephone interviews using electronic questionnaires (CATI) and self-completed online questionnaires (CAWI).
– Staff: 16 researchers & 2 supervisors.
– Special software used: Wombat & Queuemetrics for remote researcher and supervisor work, with live real-time monitoring of fieldwork.
– Maximum statistical error: ±2.8% (per wave).
– Weighting: Based on gender, age & the results of the June 2023 parliamentary elections.
– Quality controls: Logical consistency checks and 100% completeness verification; 20.2% of interviews double-checked by live listening.
– MARC S.A. is a member of SEDEA & ESOMAR and complies with the PESSS regulation and international codes of conduct for conducting and publishing opinion polls.