With the war in the Middle East ongoing, the IMF is now running scenarios to assess which countries may require new funding if the crisis continues, according to sources cited by Bloomberg.

In this context, the IMF’s Strategy, Policy, and Review Department – a key unit responsible for designing, implementing, and evaluating policies – has requested that the organization’s country desks submit analyses covering everything from current account balances to potential new funding needs.

Potential New Needs

The assessment mainly focuses on countries already engaged in active funding programs, according to one of the sources cited.

Asked about the matter, an IMF spokesperson emphasized that Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva has recently stated that, in an environment of heightened uncertainty, more countries are turning to the Fund for support, adding that the IMF is ready to provide assistance wherever needed.

The surge in the cost of essential commodities, such as oil and natural gas, is already putting significant pressure on economies worldwide, raising the risk of reduced government revenues while simultaneously increasing spending needs to support citizens.

At the same time, disruptions in fertilizer supply have worsened prospects for agricultural production.

World Bank on Alert

The World Bank also reported on Thursday that several emerging economies “have already approached us, as the conflict in the Middle East begins to affect commodity prices and supply chains.” The international organization added that “we are ready to respond on a large scale.”

“As has been stated, the longer this situation continues and the greater the damage to critical infrastructure, the more difficult it will be for our clients,” the World Bank said in a statement. “Nevertheless, we are determined to help and do whatever we can to safeguard the economic progress these countries have painstakingly achieved.”

Most Vulnerable Countries

The IMF currently maintains active programs in 50 countries and is ready either to strengthen existing agreements or establish new ones if necessary, Georgieva said in an interview with Bloomberg TV on March 6. However, the Fund reported on Wednesday that it has not yet received any official requests for new assistance.

The IMF chief has expressed particular concern for oil-importing countries, especially the economies of Pacific island nations at the “end of the supply chain,” as well as low-income countries with high debt levels.

The IMF’s total outstanding loans, reflecting funds already disbursed, amounted to about $166 billion as of March 24, while its total lending capacity is roughly $1 trillion, according to the organization.

Toward a Downward Revision of Economic Forecasts

The Fund is also updating its global growth forecasts in the World Economic Outlook report, incorporating new commodity price data. The critical report is expected next month during the IMF and World Bank spring meetings in Washington, beginning April 13.

Before the war, the IMF had slightly revised its global growth forecast for 2026 upward to 3.3% from the 3.1% estimate in October. However, it had already warned that concerns about a potential AI “bubble,” as well as trade and geopolitical tensions, remain risks to the global economy.

Now, the war and the energy crisis are likely to lead to a downward revision of inflation and growth projections, especially if the conflict continues for an extended period.