Hello, today’s news is focused more on the internal affairs of New Democracy (ND) and less on government activity. Yes, indeed, the ND parliamentary group meeting is interesting, but intuitively I’d say that when you expect a lot of noise, it usually doesn’t happen. Ever since Mitsotakis decided to “look squarely” at the possibility of elections in the autumn, everything will start being viewed through the prism of elections. MPs will become more cautious, and he himself is now personally dealing with them.

The blue group therapy
Today’s meeting of the ND Parliamentary Group is expected to last at least 3–4 hours, as more than 40 MPs have registered to speak. I’m told that Mitsotakis’ speech, as I already mentioned, will be mild and unifying, though with some pointed remarks; that is, he won’t pretend not to understand what is happening within his party, but neither will he escalate matters. He is also expected to stay to listen to all the MPs and respond where necessary. In any case, it appears there will be no extremes, although there will be sharp interventions. Certainly, the “five” MPs who sent the open letter to Ta Nea a few days ago have signed up to speak, though they say their interventions will be political rather than emotional or filled with personal barbs. Still, there is a sense of self-preservation inside the party, because if things get out of hand today, ND will enter an unnecessary spiral of introversion, despite maintaining a fifteen-point lead over the second party in every poll.

They’ll say it at the congress
There is also a category of ND MPs who have concerns and reservations but will not speak at the Parliamentary Group meeting. For example, Stelios Petsas is preparing a political intervention with sharp edges for the upcoming party congress. Others are in the same category; after all, I have also written that the Congress will be interesting regardless.

Dendias’ absence
Dendias will also be absent from another milestone event with internal party significance. Obviously, ministers have independent schedules and rarely all attend the full sessions of the Parliamentary Group, where the main “game” is usually played by those who are not ministers. Still, symbolism matters. For the record, the Defence Minister has a scheduled two-day trip to Portugal, just as he had “something else scheduled” during the vote on lifting MPs’ immunity, and “something else” during the debate on the rule of law, while he also did not attend the amendment concerning his ministry’s authority over guarding the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier.

Karamanlis (1)
Karamanlis, through his…silence toward Dora, confirmed that he will not attend the ND congress next weekend, unlike what he did in 2024. Of course, back then he attended together with Samaras, who has now been expelled, so attending alone would seem somewhat strange. Technically, however, he has not refused yet. By the end of the week, he will receive the invitation from the chairman of the Organizing Committee and his long-time interlocutor, Theodoros Roussopoulos, which will give him every opportunity to formally decline.

Karamanlis (2)
As you may have noticed, I rarely deal with Karamanlis (of Rafina), because frankly there is no reason to, but it is beyond me that the politician under whose premiership the deficit reached 12% of GDP, with 270,000 public-sector hires, leading Greece to bankruptcy and the memoranda, now speaks of “clientelist mentality.” A little shame, please!

Opposition
Meanwhile, the opposition is reading the latest polls and is probably disappointed because it realizes that “OPEKEPE 2” and the wiretapping affair have not really worked as weapons against the government. My impression is that the losses it suffered, around 1%–2%, are due more to demobilization following the end of the “rally around the flag” effect from the Gulf war than to the scandals themselves. A highly experienced source told me that the reason the government is not rapidly deteriorating—or rather remains stable around 30% (roughly what it had before the 2023 election)—is not so much due to subsidies, but to the opposition itself. “What have we seen in recent days?” the source asks and continues: “Androulakis got rid of Kastanidis, someone whose clash with him signified nothing, and brought in Farantouris. A guy whom older people remember as a blue-party employee in the offices of Souflias, Voulgarakis, and Kefalogiannis, who later became Syriza-aligned, then aligned with Kasselakis, flirted politically with Karystianou, and finally was taken in by Androulakis. At the same time, we are reminded again of Tsipras and Syriza in 2015 and what happened to us through the SKAI documentary, while every day we hear another episode in Parliament involving Zoe. So what do you expect ordinary people who just want peace and quiet to work and produce to do—open the doors of the madhouse?” says the source, who also works with focus groups. I won’t disagree, because every poll you read ends up more or less there in the qualitative findings, especially regarding suitability for governing and for prime minister. When the second most preferred figure after Mitsotakis, who stands at 32%–33%, is Tsipras at 9%, you understand the level of despair in public opinion regarding the opposition.

Pierrakakis in Le Point
It’s not the most common thing for major international media outlets to cite the remarks of a Greek politician when discussing Europe’s greatest challenge. Yet that is what happened in yesterday’s Le Point article. In its detailed feature on the Savings and Investments Union, the iconic French outlet chose as its headline Kyriakos Pierrakakis’ reference to “wooden walls” at last week’s EU finance ministers’ summit. The article begins with the phrase: “At the ECOFIN meeting of May 5, Themistocles appeared invited to the battle for the Capital Markets Union,” and continues by referring to “a lesson in ancient history that gave the discussion a special color.” The article’s author particularly highlighted the Greek Finance Minister’s remark to his counterparts: “Will we remain at words, or move to actions? Do you want to build walls or build ships?”

The blunder and the seriousness
You’ve already read the news that the European Public Prosecutor’s Office in Greece sent MPs being investigated in the OPEKEPE case summonses for felony charges, while in reality they are facing misdemeanors. Obviously, a “corrected version” will be sent, like with press releases, but this story was widely discussed in political backstage circles yesterday. According to the political figures mentioned, it also reveals the seriousness of the local Prosecutor’s Office mechanism (Papandreou & Co.), who conducted the criminal assessment of the case. One might say that we are all human and make mistakes, but in certain cases mistakes carry significance, don’t they?

Greek-Dutch rapprochement in bancassurance

While National Bank is in the final stage of talks with Allianz, a new deal appears to be developing behind the scenes. CrediaBank—without hiding it—is seeking a strategic ally and is said to be in advanced talks with the NN Insurance Group. CrediaBank’s management wants to upgrade its bancassurance segment, despite already cooperating with ERGO and Interamerican. However, its revenues from those partnerships remain low. On the other hand, NN Hellas has already demonstrated the strategic importance it places on Greek bancassurance through its long-term partnership with Piraeus Bank, a collaboration that on paper was renewed for 10 years with an option for another 5. However, Piraeus chose to “marry” Ethniki Insurance, so discussions now concern only the terms of the “divorce” with NN. Sources say that mutual funds have also been placed on the negotiating table, with NN’s asset management arm upgrading its relationship with Credia from simple distribution to a substantial strategic partnership. CrediaBank, with its renewed capital structure, retail focus, and considerable ambitions, represents an attractive alternative for the angry Dutch.

Vakakis insists and raises the bet in Romania
JUMBO’s stock (-0.87% at €22.7) did not participate in yesterday’s stock-market rally, where all the “high-beta” aggressive stocks starred. Still, it is interesting that more than 1.16 million shares changed hands yesterday, a volume exceeding even that of the rebalancing day on February 27. Some sold in panic. Others bought with conviction. JUMBO’s Achilles’ heel today is the Romanian market, whose potential Apostolos Vakakis trusts, which is why he continues investing heavily there. Romania’s currency, the leu, has fallen to a historic low, requiring 5.23 lei for €1. The government lost parliament’s confidence, inflation is running at 8%, and Romanian consumers see their real income shrinking. Vakakis persists. He will create a new store in Baia Mare and a huge new 60,000-square-meter distribution center this year, which may also be used for sales outside Romania. In April alone, JUMBO sales in Romania—both physical stores and e-jumbo.ro—recorded a 15% drop compared with April 2025. Usually pessimistic, Vakakis is ignoring the warning signs and investing optimistically in the region.

There is no agreement
The company “Amoiridis-Savvidis SA” informed the column regarding yesterday’s comment about an acquisition by Kotsovolos that “there is no agreement to be implemented.”

Behind-the-scenes discussions on ferries and expensive fuel
A few days ago, Vasilis Kikilias met with the president of the Association of Passenger Shipping Companies. The subject was the serious problems ferry companies are facing due to expensive fuel as a consequence of the war in the Middle East. The minister is actively working on the issue and exploring every institutional possibility before the government as a whole decides what measures to take to prevent increases in ticket prices. The data are as follows: during March and April, the additional monthly burden on the ferry sector due to fuel costs reached €18 million, and May is expected to remain at that level, bringing the total to €54 million. If the war continues, from June onward, when routes increase, ferry operators estimate the total monthly burden will rise to €25 million. At their first meeting at the Maximos Mansion earlier this spring, representatives of the shipping association and the government decided to subsidize the mandatory discounts, which amount annually to €56 million, though the companies will receive these funds gradually over time. For now, the law has been passed, published in the Government Gazette, and everyone is waiting for implementation. At that first meeting, both sides agreed they would proceed step by step. They said that if the war continued, a second meeting would follow in May. It has not yet been scheduled. Through the association, ferry operators are requesting fuel subsidies at the refinery level to cover the increase in costs. The subsidy is estimated to burden the state budget by around €25 million per month for as long as disruptions in navigation through Hormuz continue. The association also brought up the recent EU decision to relax state-aid rules as part of measures to help member states confront the energy crisis.

Attica Beauty is coming
Attica department stores, which are currently being discussed because of their upcoming stock-market listing, are promoting a new store concept focused exclusively on cosmetics and personal-care products under the brand name “Attica Beauty.” In this context, they closed the store on the first floor of the Mall and are preparing to open the first Attica Beauty on the second floor of the shopping center, occupying a 470-square-meter space. The second Attica Beauty will open at Riviera Galleria in Ellinikon. Management will monitor the performance of the first two stores before deciding whether and how to expand the concept further. This year, before the Middle East war, Attica department stores had targeted 6% growth and still consider that target achievable despite developments. Management’s key challenge is maintaining the EBITDA-to-sales ratio at 12%, one of the best performances internationally in the sector.

Folias enters batteries too
Christos Folias appears hyperactive on the business front. The former minister and MP under Kostas Karamanlis’ governments started in business—with the most famous “achievement” being the founding of Goody’s fast-food chain together with his brother Achilles—and returned to entrepreneurship after retiring from politics years ago. At present he is chairman of Real Tobacco SA, CEO of Emerald Foods owned by the Yavroglou family, and, as I hear, also participates in a new corporate venture betting on many things, but mainly batteries, since energy storage is the modern market’s “holy grail.” The company Thalior S.A., established yesterday, Wednesday May 6, is headquartered on Kanari Street and has initial share capital of €25,000. The venture includes Michail Dingas as attorney, representative, and agent of the Chinese company Jade Peak Holdings Limited; Christos Folias representing “Christos Folias and Co. GP”; and Dimitrios Arvanitis as director and legal representative of Cyprus-based Malgani Ltd. As for the share capital: Jade Peak Holdings contributed €13,750 (55%), M. Dingas €4,375 (17.5%), “Folias and Partners” €5,625 (22.5%), and Malgani Ltd €1,250 (5%). In the first board of directors, M. Dingas became chairman, Chr. Folias vice chairman, and D. Arvanitis managing director. The company’s purpose includes manufacturing electric cells and accumulators, wholesale trade in machinery and equipment (including energy-storage batteries), installation of industrial machinery and equipment (including BESS systems), manufacturing motor vehicles, manufacturing electrical and electronic equipment for vehicles, and even manufacturing… airplanes and spacecraft. Big ambitions indeed.

The “blessing” of debt under British law
Yesterday another “anti-memorandum myth” was dismantled. The subjection of Greek debt to English law, which some considered a “treacherous” concession to creditors, ultimately proved to be the greatest protection for the Greek state. Greece won in the UK Supreme Court the case concerning the buyback of GDP-linked warrants. These were securities with nominal value exceeding €62 billion, the largest series of GDP-linked instruments ever issued by a sovereign state. British justice ruled in record time, less than a year after the lawsuit was filed. Had the case been judged by Greek courts, even a decade might not have been enough. The second lesson concerns the Public Debt Management Agency (ODDIH). Certain large institutional investors (VR Capital, Wellington Management, Pharo Management) challenged the buyback by the Greek state, claiming the acquisition price was 36% below market value. Rather than bowing to pressure and threats regarding Greece’s “reputation,” ODDIH chose to seek a declaratory judgment from British courts, which proved to be “the most effective” method of resolution, avoiding fragmented procedures and contradictory decisions. Rarely is public-debt management handled with such legal determination and professional composure. The third lesson is political: growth should not be punished. GDP warrants were designed so Greece could “share” the fruits of recovery with creditors. By repurchasing €156 million worth of securities at 25 cents on the euro, the state closed obligations extending to 2042 and avoided burdens estimated at €3 billion. The British court ruling can be appealed within three weeks. The opposing parties did not appear. But the essence of the matter has already been decided.

Marinas rise, the institutional framework “sticks”
Nearly two weeks have passed since the General Assembly of the Greek Marinas Association in Preveza, but the multiple messages sent in the speech by the Association’s president and Managing Director of LAMDA Marinas, Stavros Katsikadis, are still being studied, though it remains unclear what will happen. Officially, the picture is impressive: 30 member marinas, covering around 75% of organized berthing positions, 9,573 total berths, and facilities accommodating everything from small boats to 140-meter mega yachts. However, among industry insiders, the real interest lies elsewhere. Stavros Katsikadis spoke about a sector driving the Greek economy forward, generating multiplier benefits of up to €10 for every €1 spent on berthing, hundreds of jobs, and strong contributions to public revenues. Between the lines, however, references to licensing delays, bureaucratic obstacles, and the lack of a stable tax framework were interpreted as a clear jab at the institutional environment. Industry executives do not hide that fatigue from constant pending issues is beginning to affect investment decisions.

Livanos’ big bet in Amsterdam that is changing the energy market
The European energy market is entering a more practical phase. The issue is no longer only hydrogen production, but how it will be transported and delivered to the end user at a competitive cost. Within this framework comes the move by Peter Livanos’ company, Ecolog, to create a hub at the port of Amsterdam. The concept is simple in theory: import liquefied hydrogen while simultaneously exporting carbon dioxide. In practice, this is an attempt to connect two markets that until now have operated separately: clean energy and emissions management. The scale of the project—200,000 tons of green hydrogen and 1.8 million tons of CO₂ annually—is realistic by today’s standards. The problem is cost. Viability will depend on three factors: how cheaply hydrogen can be produced outside Europe, how much it costs to transport it in liquid form, and whether there is stable industrial demand. None of these factors has yet been locked in. On the technical side, transporting liquid hydrogen remains difficult. The technology exists, but it has not matured. Boil-off losses at temperatures of -253°C raise costs. Ecolog claims it has significantly improved this parameter and has received preliminary approval for a new ship design. That is a positive development, but not a definitive solution. As for distribution, the connection with the Hynetwork grid and Amsterdam’s infrastructure provides flexibility. Hydrogen can either enter the grid or be transported elsewhere. This improves the commercial profile, but actual demand remains fragile and heavily dependent on government support. The timeline for operations by 2030 is considered standard for projects of this scale, assuming permits move forward during 2026.

Energy-intensive industries “took off”
Shares of energy-intensive industries led yesterday’s market rise, transforming the de-escalation of tensions in the Middle East into profits. The market made a “peace leap” toward 2,300 points, while turnover surged above €440 million, reflecting the mass return of buyers. Industrial groups, which had suffered the greatest pressure due to rising energy costs and geopolitical uncertainty, staged an impressive rebound. The prospect of energy prices stabilizing at pre-war levels acted as a strong catalyst for stocks such as Metlen (fourth consecutive gain), Titan (jump of 7.65%), Viohalco (double-digit rally and new all-time high), Cenergy (also a new all-time high), and ElvalHalcor. Investors are now pricing in a significant improvement in profit margins for energy-intensive sectors, as reduced operating costs combine with sustained strong international demand for their products.

Eurobank Equities and Piraeus Securities form a “duopoly” around AVAX
AVAX became the focal point of buying interest in the mid-cap segment. The construction company benefited from the extremely positive market sentiment prevailing yesterday. However, the stock’s momentum was further strengthened by reports from Eurobank Equities and Piraeus Securities, both of which saw upside potential approaching 50% before publication of the reports. Following Wednesday’s 7.87% rally, AVAX reached the threshold of €3.5 and reduced the upside to approximately 38.7%. Specifically, Eurobank Equities initiated coverage of the stock with a “buy” recommendation and a target price of €4.85, emphasizing the group’s strong prospects. Analysts are focusing on the robust backlog of projects, healthy capital structure, and AVAX’s ability to play a leading role in major infrastructure and energy projects currently underway in the country. The market appears to be adopting the analysts’ perspective, recognizing that the company’s current market valuation does not fully reflect the value of its holdings and future cash flows.

When Morgan Stanley succumbed to the charm of cryptocurrencies
Morgan Stanley announced that it is launching cryptocurrency trading through the ETrade platform, with transaction costs of 50 basis points. This cost is lower than that of competing platforms such as Coinbase, Robinhood, and Charles Schwab. The pilot program will expand to ETrade’s 8.6 million customers by the end of 2026. The language used by Wealth Management head Jed Finn leaves no doubt about the strategic intent: “disintermediating the disintermediators.” Morgan Stanley wants to displace those who once displaced traditional banks. Coinbase was built in the vacuum left by Wall Street. Now Wall Street is returning. Morgan Stanley is already marketing its Bitcoin ETF mutual fund, planning new products for Ether and Solana, has filed for a national trust bank charter so it can itself custody digital assets, and is examining the possibility of converting crypto holdings into exchange-traded funds without selling them. MSBT, Morgan Stanley’s Bitcoin ETF, raised more than $100 million in its first six days exclusively from retail investor clients, before the bank’s advisers had even begun recommending it. Demand came before supply. That is the most eloquent sign. Coinbase popularized cryptocurrencies. Morgan Stanley institutionalized them.

The Japanese government began interventions to support the yen
The Japanese government admitted that last Thursday it spent approximately $34.5 billion to halt the yen’s collapse. It was the first intervention in foreign exchange markets since July 2024. The exchange rate had reached 160.72 yen per dollar, the weakest level since mid-2024. Following the intervention, the yen rebounded to 155.50 per dollar, marking its biggest daily gain in three years. The estimated expenditure of ¥5.4 trillion exceeds the average ¥3.8 trillion spent in each of the four interventions during 2024. It is notable that Tokyo informed the US government before the intervention, in what appeared to be a climate of coordinated tolerance from Washington. This was the first such move under Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi and Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama, indicating that the new government is maintaining the same “red line” as previous administrations. The root of the problem remains untouched. The yen remains under constant pressure because of the large interest-rate differential between the US and Japan, worsened by high oil prices that strengthen the dollar. The Bank of Japan maintained its policy rate at 0.75% for a fourth consecutive meeting, while 10-year Japanese government bonds approached 2.50%, the highest level since July 1997. It is obvious that the battle is not over. Markets want rate cuts from the Fed and rate hikes from the BOJ in order to end the infamous carry trade once and for all—borrowing cheap yen and investing in dollar-denominated assets for easy profits.

“Paper barrels” do not fill storage tanks
Last week Brent crude oil reached $122 per barrel, its highest price since March 2022. Yesterday morning the market opened at $108, but after the suspension of the POTUS “Freedom Operation” and Axios reports suggesting an agreement was imminent, prices plunged—down 11% for Brent and 12% for US crude. Something similar had happened on April 17, when there were again hopes of normalization. Futures contracts rushed to price in the peace scenario. The problem, however, is that “paper barrels”—futures contracts—do not fill storage tanks today and tomorrow. At the peak of the crisis, prices for physically delivered crude oil approached $150 per barrel, far above futures prices. That was proof that the system operates with insufficient deliverables. The real crisis lies in refined products. Diesel and aviation jet fuel are especially exposed, because there is no flexibility to increase production elsewhere to offset the loss of exports from the Middle East. The EIA predicts that US distillate inventories will remain below the five-year average, while Europe and Asia remain critically dependent on diesel imports from the Middle East. Supply chains are already feeling the shortages. The collapse in LPG and naphtha supplies is forcing petrochemical plants to cut polymer production, worsening disruptions from the Gulf and affecting plastics, textiles, packaging, and construction. European airports are facing acute jet-fuel shortages, with estimates suggesting stocks could run out within weeks if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed.

Who holds the world’s remaining oil reserves
Global oil reserves are currently estimated at 8.1 billion barrels. Roughly half are located in advanced economies. Crude oil inventories in oil-importing Asian countries fell to 31 million barrels in March, with further declines in April. Asian petrochemical producers were forced to cut production as feedstocks ran out. This uneven distribution creates winners and losers. Countries with large strategic petroleum reserves—the US, Germany, Japan—can endure longer. Saudi Arabia and the UAE can redirect part of their production to terminals outside the Gulf, but those quantities are only a drop in the ocean. Brent prices have already risen 50% since the beginning of the year, while the World Bank forecasts a 24% increase in energy prices for 2026, higher than any year since the Russian invasion of Ukraine. In April, the oil market experienced something unprecedented. Global inventories outside the Persian Gulf recorded a record daily decline of 6.6 million barrels, amounting to 205 million barrels in a single month. This hemorrhaging of inventories is what kept prices contained.

Artificial intelligence is abandoning copper and turning to glass
Nvidia announced yesterday that it will pay $500 million to acquire rights to purchase shares in Corning. Corning is a 175-year-old glass manufacturer that has suddenly found itself at the center of the artificial intelligence revolution. The deal expands the long-standing commercial and technological partnership between Nvidia and Corning in optical connectivity. Three new factories in North Carolina and Texas, along with more than 3,000 new jobs, will increase American optical-connectivity production capacity tenfold and boost optical-fiber output by more than 50%. Corning will attempt to bring glass fibers directly between the chips themselves, eventually replacing the 5,000 copper cables used in Nvidia systems. Optical fiber transfers data as photons, with speeds and energy efficiency that copper cannot approach. Corning’s stock surged as much as 20%. It has already gained more than 250% over the past year, further boosted by Meta’s commitment of up to $6 billion to expand optical-cable production. Corning announced targets of annual revenue reaching $20 billion by the end of 2026, $30 billion by 2028, and $40 billion by 2030.