Six months have now passed since the start of the U.S.-Israeli attacks against Iran, with the toll of the conflict now reflected in thousands of dead and displaced people, hundreds of attacks, serious disruptions in international energy markets, and a war front that remains open.
On February 28, the United States and Israel launched the first strikes against Iran, killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in Tehran and targeting nuclear and military facilities across the country.
The attacks triggered a response from Tehran, which began striking U.S. military installations and infrastructure in the Gulf states. At the same time, Hezbollah in Lebanon began launching rockets toward northern Israel, with Israel responding almost daily ever since and, at one stage of the conflict, controlling approximately one-fifth of Lebanese territory.
Six months later, neither side has managed to gain a clear advantage. Iran has used its control of the Strait of Hormuz to put pressure on Washington and global energy markets, while the conflict has descended into a prolonged stalemate that even months of negotiations have failed to resolve.
At least 7,900 dead
According to the latest official figures, presented by Al Jazeera, since the war began on February 28, at least 4,350 people have been confirmed dead in Lebanon, 3,527 in Iran, and 28 in the Gulf states.
Meanwhile, 60 Israelis and 18 U.S. military personnel have been killed in Iranian attacks.
The Pentagon also reports that 757 U.S. military personnel have been wounded.
The figures come from national health ministries and other official bodies and may be revised as the conflict continues and more information becomes available.
More than 5,500 attacks
According to the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project (ACLED), an organization that monitors armed conflicts, the United States and Israel have carried out at least 3,580 attacks against Iran since February 28.
During the same period, Iran has carried out at least 2,053 attacks in the Gulf and the wider Middle East.
Strait of Hormuz: From 100 ships a day to just seven
Before the war, at least 100 ships crossed the Strait of Hormuz every day, more than half of them tankers, carrying tens of millions of barrels of oil, liquefied petroleum gas and other petrochemical products.
Traffic collapsed within days of the outbreak of the war.
Following the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ announcement on March 2 that it was closing the Strait, traffic fell to an average of five ships per day and remained at those levels both during the April ceasefire and throughout the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports.
The temporary agreement of June 17 raised the daily average to 20 ships, a figure that represented just one-fifth of normal traffic. When the United States reinstated the blockade on July 14, traffic fell again to five ships a day.
Overall, during the six months of the conflict, an average of just seven ships a day passed through the Strait.
70 confirmed attacks on ships
Attacks on commercial vessels have also played an important role in the collapse of maritime traffic.
According to the International Maritime Organization, by August 26 there had been 70 confirmed incidents involving vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, resulting in the deaths of 19 seafarers.
U.S. cost reaches $37.5 billion
Last month, U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth told a Senate hearing that the war had cost $37.5 billion up to that point. The figure had risen from approximately $25 billion at the end of April and around $30 billion in July.
According to him, the amount includes personnel costs, operational expenses, maintenance and projected expenses through the end of the fiscal year on September 30.
The actual cost, however, is estimated to be much higher.
U.S. media have reported that internal Pentagon estimates put the bill at between $80 billion and $100 billion if repairs to damaged U.S. bases, the replacement of destroyed aircraft and the replenishment of weapons stocks are taken into account.
The U.S. government has not published a detailed breakdown of the expenditure.
Oil 22% more expensive than before the war
Since the beginning of the conflict, the price of Brent crude has risen by approximately 22%, from $72.48 a barrel to $88.58 on August 28.
The price reached its highest point on April 30, at $120.88 a barrel, or 67% above pre-war levels.
The past six months have been characterized by intense volatility in international energy markets.
U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve at its lowest level since 1982
The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve has fallen to 290 million barrels.
That level represents approximately 41% of its total capacity of 714 million barrels and is the lowest recorded since November 1982.
Other countries have also released reserves onto the market. The United States contributed the largest share of a coordinated release of 400 million barrels, agreed on March 11 by the 32 member countries of the International Energy Agency. This was the largest emergency reserve release in the organization’s history.
Iran, too, is reportedly facing problems domestically. The country produces approximately 120 million liters of gasoline per day, while daily consumption reaches approximately 135 million liters. The shortfall therefore stands at around 15 million liters per day.
Ali Akbar Saghab Esfahani, head of Iran’s Energy Optimization and Strategic Management Organization, estimated on August 15 that the daily gasoline shortage ranged between 14 million and 15 million liters.
Before the crisis intensified, approximately half of the shortfall was covered by imports, a large portion of which came from Russia. However, the U.S. naval blockade, Ukrainian strikes on Russian refining infrastructure and the closure of the supply route through the Caspian Sea drastically reduced Tehran’s ability to maintain these imports.
Israel still controls parts of Lebanon
Despite the ceasefire agreement between Lebanon and Israel, which took effect on April 17 and was renewed on June 26, Israeli forces continue to control parts of Lebanon and carry out attacks.
Before the ceasefire, Israeli forces had occupied almost one-fifth of the country, approximately 2,000 square kilometers.
Today, a security zone covering approximately 6% of Lebanon’s territory remains in effect.
Fighting resumed on March 2, when Iran-backed Hezbollah opened fire on Israel in support of Tehran, three days after the start of the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran.
Israel responded with a large-scale operation in Lebanon.
According to Lebanon’s Ministry of Public Health, at least 4,350 people have been killed since then, while the number of wounded stands at 12,510.
Trump’s approval rating at 33%
The war also appears to be carrying a significant political cost for Donald Trump. The U.S. president’s approval rating has fallen to the lowest level of his presidency.
A Reuters/Ipsos poll, completed on August 24, showed that only 33% of Americans approve of his performance in the White House, while 65% disapprove. The figure is equal to the low recorded in December 2017, during his first presidential term.
The same poll shows that 80% of Americans believe that U.S. involvement in Iran “will continue for a long time.” That view is shared by 87% of Democrats and 71% of Republicans.
Only 16% believe that U.S. involvement could end within the next few weeks.
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