IMF for Greece: Primary surplus & stable reduction of debt

The International Monetary Fund predicts a primary surplus in the Greek budget for this year.

Specifically, it expects the primary surplus to stand at 0.4% of GDP this year and rise to 1.4% in 2024, before continuing to rise to reach 2% in 2028.

If interest on public debt is also taken into account, the overall fiscal balance is expected to have a deficit of 3.7% of GDP, which will decrease to 2.8% in 2024 and to 1.9% gradually by 2028.

The improvement in fiscal figures is expected to result from the greater reduction of public expenditures in relation to public revenues.

General government spending is projected to decline from 55.5% of GDP last year to 50.3% this year and 47% in 2024 and continue to decline to reach 43.7% in 2028.

On the other hand, revenue is expected to decline from 51.5% last year to 47.9% this year and gradually to 43% in 2028.

For public debt, the IMF predicts that it will decline further this year to 166% of GDP and continue to decline to 160.5% in 2024 to reach 143.6% in 2028.

The Fund notes the large reduction in Greek debt last year to 177.4% from 200.7% of GDP in 2021, helped by strong growth and inflation.

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